http://ift.tt/22LeuUN
"In terms of specific numbers, Riesner and Müller suggest after the weak start in trading for the year, there is a good chance of a bounce in late Q1 towards 2200 or even 2300 in the S&P 500 index. That said, considering the increasing selectivity/volatility globally, and the fact that the eight-year cycle of a presidential turn has a notably negative track record, expect the S&P index to top out in the second quarter, and begin “a full size bear market, with risk of a 20% to 30% correction into minimum later 2016 and worst case early 2017.”"
"In terms of specific numbers, Riesner and Müller suggest after the weak start in trading for the year, there is a good chance of a bounce in late Q1 towards 2200 or even 2300 in the S&P 500 index. That said, considering the increasing selectivity/volatility globally, and the fact that the eight-year cycle of a presidential turn has a notably negative track record, expect the S&P index to top out in the second quarter, and begin “a full size bear market, with risk of a 20% to 30% correction into minimum later 2016 and worst case early 2017.”"
[text] UBS: One More Rally, Then a 20-30 Percent Decline By the End of the Year *
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