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Trinidad & Tobago raises rate 25 bps for 6th time in a row

Trinidad and Tobago's central bank raised its benchmark repurchase rate by 25 basis points for the sixth consecutive time to 4.25 percent but said the rate still remains below its longer term average and it "views the monetary policy stance as supportive to economic growth."
The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago has now raised its rate by a total of 150 basis points since embarking on its tightening campaign in September 2014. In 2015 it has raised the rate 100 points.
The main factor behind the decision to raise the rate was the recent forward guidance by the U.S. Federal Reserve regarding the start of a normalization of monetary policy, followed by the potential for core inflation pressures to pick up over the next few months and finally the weaker-than-expected growth in the non-energy sector in the first half of this year.
"Despite slower-than-expected growth in the non-energy sector in the first half of 2015, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) anticipates a respectable performance in the non-energy sector in the second half of 2015," the central bank said.
Referring to this week's statement by the Fed, the central bank said it had "hinted the U.S. labor market is reaching a position where a rate hike could be possible this year,"and over the past few months an improving U.S. economy have led to rising yields on 10-year Treasuries.
As a result, the differential between Trinidad and Tobago and U.S. 10-year bonds has narrowed substantially to 69 basis points at the end of July from 82 points at the end of May.
"Higher domestic rates are necessary to enhance yields of TT$ instruments to mitigate potential capital outflows," the central bank said.
In addition, the central bank said rising inflationary pressures remain a concern, with pressures expected to pick up in the rest of this year due to a possible rise in food inflation, strong consumer credit, public sector wage agreements that is likely to lift consumer spending and higher public spending in the remaining four months of fiscal 2015.
The central bank said headline inflation was steady at just over 5.50 percent in June while core inflation slowed marginally to just below 2 percent.


The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago issued the following statement:

"At its July 2015 meeting, Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to raise the ‘Repo’ rate for a sixth consecutive time by 25 basis points to 4 ¼ percent. The MPC based its decision on three factors. The first and most influential factor was recent forward guidance by the US Fed on the start of normalization of U.S. monetary policy. The second factor was the potential for domestic core inflationary pressures to pick up over the next few months. The third factor upon which the MPC deliberated was weaker-than-anticipated growth in the non-energy sector in the first half of 2015.

Since the previous meeting of the MPC, uncertainty related to the Greek debt crisis and the sharp correction in Chinese equity markets dominated sentiment in global financial markets. Even though near term risks from these events appear to have dissipated somewhat for now, risks associated with the timing of the first increase in the US Fed funds rate still persist. In her mid-July 2015 testimony to Congress, US Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen reiterated the Fed remains on track to raise rates this year, as long as the U.S. economy evolves as expected. At its July 28-29th meeting, the FOMC hinted the U.S. labor market is reaching a position where a rate hike could be possible this year. Over the past few months, improving U.S. economic conditions and rising expectations for a Fed rate increase have led to increasing yields on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury. As a result, the interest rate differential between TT – US 10- year Treasuries narrowed substantially to 69 basis points at the end of July 2015 from 82 basis points at the end of May 2015. Higher domestic rates are necessary to enhance yields of TT$ instruments to mitigate potential capital outflows.

Locally, rising inflationary pressures remain a concern for the MPC. Headline inflation held steady at just over 5 ½ percent in June 2015, while core inflation slowed marginally to just below 2 percent. However, the MPC expects inflationary pressures to pick up in the remaining months of 2015 due to a number of factors:
• Food inflation accelerated for the first time in 2015 spurred by rising input costs (specifically poultry) and falling supply associated with the outbreak of a pest in the Dominican Republic, a major source market for fruits and vegetables. In June 2015, food inflation rose to 9.7 percent. The advent of the rainy season raises the possibility of flooding and may lead to additional disruptions to domestic agricultural supply, further pushing up food inflation, which drives headline inflation.
• Consumer credit continues to grow at a fairly strong pace, increasing by 7 ½ percent in May 2015. Recently concluded public sector wage agreements are expected to lift consumer spending and inflationary pressures.
• Central Government maintained an expansionary fiscal stance in the first eight months of FY2015. Capital expenditure, in particular, increased by nearly 9 ½ percent due to a pick-up in the pace of project implementation as well as the settlement of some outstanding commitments. The MPC expects public spending to ramp up in the remaining four months of fiscal 2015, boosted by higher public sector wages and ongoing capital infrastructure projects ahead of the general elections.

The Repo rate increased by 150 basis points since September 2014, but this is still below its longer term average. The MPC, therefore, views the monetary policy stance as supportive to economic growth. Despite slower -than- expected- growth in the non-energy sector in the first half of 2015, the MPC anticipates a respectable performance in the non-energy sector in the second half of 2015.

With liquidity levels falling to a daily average of $3.2 billion over the past three months (May – July 2015), the MPC agreed to continue with an aggressive programme to absorb excess liquidity and strengthen the impact of higher interest rates throughout the financial system. Commercial banks’ median prime lending rate increased to 8 ¼ percent in July 2015 from 8.00 percent in May 2015. Commercial banks are expected to further increase their interest rates in coming months.

The next Monetary Policy Announcement is scheduled for September 25th 2015."

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Trinidad & Tobago raises rate 25 bps for 6th time in a row

Colombia holds rate and cuts 2015 growth forecast

Colombia's central bank maintained its benchmark intervention rate at 4.5 percent, saying temporary price shocks should reverse during the monetary policy horizon though the "recent depreciation of the peso could delay the convergence of inflation to the target."
The Central Bank of Colombia, which raised its rate by 125 basis points in 2014 to curb inflation, added that it expects the country's economy in the second quarter to expand at a pace that is similar to the first quarter, with the drop in oil prices and other commodity prices that are exported having a negative impact on national income, partly explaining the "sharp devaluation" of the peso's exchange rate.
Colombia's economy expanded by 0.8 percent in the first quarter from the fourth quarter and on an annual basis Gross Domestic Product grew by 2.8 percent, down from 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter and the lowest annual growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2012.
For 2015 the central bank lowered its growth forecast to 2.8 percent from a previous forecast of 3.2 percent, adding growth could be in a range of 1.8 to 3.4 percent. In 2014 GDP grew 4.8 percent.
The central bank noted that inflation remained relatively stable in June and inflation expectations one and two years ahead remain around the bank's midpoint target of 3.0 percent.
Colombia's inflation rate rose marginally to 4.42 percent in June from 4.41 percent in May, above the central bank's upper limit of 4.0 percent.
Colombia's peso has been depreciating for the last 12 months, with the pace accelerating from May. Today the peso was trading at 2,880 to the U.S. dollar for a decline this year of 17 percent.
Last month Colombia's finance minister, Mauricio Cardenas, was quoted as saying policymakers expect inflation to slow toward the end of the year and are not considering any rise in interest rates, with the rise in inflation due to short-lived supply shocks, particularly to potatoes and rice.



The Central Bank of Colombia issued the following statement (translation by Google):

"The Board of the Central Bank at its meeting today decided to keep interest rates at 4.5% intervention. In this decision, the Board took into account mainly the following aspects:

• • Annual consumer inflation (4.42%) remained relatively stable in June. The average of the four measures of core inflation (4.14%) increased for the ninth consecutive month. Inflation expectations of analysts to one and two years and those arising TES 2, 3 and 5 years continue around 3%.
  • The slower growth in food supply, transmission nominal depreciation consumer prices and the increase in costs of imported raw materials, largely explain the acceleration in inflation.
  • The depreciation of the peso and the persistence of El Niño may postpone the convergence of inflation to the target directly and by activation of indexation mechanisms.
  • In the United States the records of the first half of 2015 showed a moderation in the growth rate compared to the second half of 2014. The euro area and Japan maintained a slow recovery while China's economy has slowed a little more than expected. Latin American economies grow larger at low or negative rates. These results have affected external demand for weaker than the estimated one quarter behind Colombian producers.
  • The agreement between Greece and its creditors significantly reduced global risk aversion. The dollar continues to strengthen and expects the Federal Reserve increased US interest rates this year.
  • The international oil price dropped like other commodity prices exported by Colombia. The decline in the terms of trade has a negative effect on national income and partly explains the sharp devaluation of the peso against the dollar.
  • In Colombia, given the indicators of retail, consumer confidence and trade, economic expectations, import, and to developments in foreign demand for domestic goods and services, technical team estimates that economic growth for the second quarter of 2015 would have been similar to that recorded in the first. For all 2015, the most likely figure was revised from 3.2% to 2.8%, contained in a range between 1.8% and 3.4%.

In short, inflation remains above the upper limit of the target range and domestic spending in the economy continues to adjust to the lower dynamics of national income. It is expected in the horizon of monetary policy action temporary price shocks are reversed in an environment of inflation expectations anchored at the finish. However, the recent depreciation of the peso could delay the convergence of inflation to the target.


The Board will continue to carefully monitor the behavior and projections of economic activity and inflation in the country, asset markets and the international situation. It reiterates also that monetary policy will depend on the information available."

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Colombia holds rate and cuts 2015 growth forecast

Why Your Brokerage Account Isn’t as Safe as You Think It Is (E.B. Tucker)

Originally Published by Casey Research

Imagine logging into your brokerage account tomorrow and finding out that it’s frozen.

Not just your account… every customer account at your brokerage is frozen.

You can’t buy stocks. You can’t sell stocks. You can’t move money out of the account.

Your account rep insists the money is still there. It’s just not available now. He doesn’t know when it will be.

When you demand to transfer $25,000 cash out of the account, he says, “I’m sorry… the system won’t let me.”

You ask to speak to his boss. She can’t help, either.

This situation sounds absurd to most Americans. There’s no way a major broker could freeze your accounts, right?

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MF Global handled stock and bond trading for some of Wall Street’s wealthiest clients.

It was also one of only 18 “primary dealers” at the time. Primary dealers are a select group of brokers allowed to participate in the US Treasury auction. Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs are also primary dealers.

Like all US brokers, MF Global was required to keep customer cash and stock separate from its own corporate accounts. This rule is supposed to keep brokers from playing with customers’ money. But the rule only works if brokers follow it.

In October 2011, account holders at MF Global started having problems withdrawing cash and transferring stocks. Turns out that their money wasn’t there. MF Global had made a series of bad bets in European bonds and illegally transferred $891 million in customer funds to cover its trading losses.

Their cash was gone…

Customers had to hire and pay for their own attorneys. For a while, it looked like they’d never get their money back. But in December 2014, MF Global finally agreed to return $1.212 billion to its former clients. It also paid a $100 million fine.

You might be wondering how this sort of thing could happen...

First off, you are not the legal or registered owner of the stocks in your brokerage account. You’re just the “beneficial owner.”

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Cede & Co., a subsidiary of The Depository Trust Company (DTC), is likely the registered owner of your stocks. You are not the registered owner. When you buy a stock, DTC holds those shares for your broker. Your broker, in turn, holds those shares for you.

That means Apple, GE, Verizon, and the other companies whose stocks you hold have no record of you.

If your broker mishandles your account, you can sue to get your money back. But, as MF Global customers discovered, it’s not easy. And there’s no guarantee you’ll win...

If your broker makes a bad bet on Greece and uses your cash to settle the bill, you’re out of luck. Sure, it’s illegal… but laws didn’t stop MF Global. Customers had to take action, hire lawyers, and sue to get their cash back.

Stable markets hide problems. In 2008, we saw how big problems can go unnoticed for years. A crisis reveals who’s stable and who’s just pretending to be. Some brokers and financial institutions are heavily leveraged. They’re especially vulnerable in a crisis. Some will not survive the next one.

The MF Global fiasco is one of the most important financial stories of the past decade. It showed that the financial system isn’t as safe as you think it is. Even big, brand-name banks and brokerages with years of success can instantly go broke.

The next financial crisis will bring many more shams like MF Global’s to light.?You can protect yourself by keeping plenty of cash and gold in a safe place… but not in a safety deposit box.

And make sure to diversify across financial institutions. You don’t want to get stuck in a situation like MF Global customers did… waiting years for your money because some executive gambled away the company.

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Russia cuts rate 50 bps, GDP may shrink above forecast

Russia's central bank cut its key policy rate by a 50 basis points to 11.0 percent to reflect that "the balance of risks shifts towards the considerable economy cooling despite a slight increase in inflation risks," and said further rate cuts would depend on the risk of higher inflation compared with the risk of further economic slowdown.
The Bank of Russia, which has now cut its rate by 600 basis points in 2015 as it continues to roll back last year's 1,150 points of rate increases, still sees inflation decelerating sharply early next year to below 7.0 percent by July due to slack domestic demand and then reaching its target of 4.0 percent by 2017.
Russia's consumer price inflation rate rose slightly to 15.8 percent as of July 27 from 15.3 percent in June but down from a 2015-high of 16.9 percent in March. The central bank said the rise in July inflation was expected and caused by a greater increase in utility tariffs as compared with 2014.
But Russia's economy is mired in recession and the central bank said it expects Gross Domestic Product in the second quarter to shrink even more in the second quarter than in the first quarter when it contracted by an annual rate of 2.2 percent.
On a quarterly basis, first quarter GDP fell by 1.29 percent following declines of 0.55 percent in the fourth quarter and 0.34 percent in the third quarter.
"Due to a more significant domestic demand shrinkage than expected in the first half of 2015, the output forecast may be revised downwards," the central bank said.
Last month the Bank of Russia said 2016 GDP could expand by 0.7 percent if oil prices recover to $70 a barrel but if they remain around $60, then the economy could contract by 1.2 percent.
The ruble fell 45 percent against the U.S. dollar in 2014, hit by the fall in oil prices and Western sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine, before recovering in February this year.
But since mid-May it has again depreciated to trade at 61 to the U.S. dollar today, practically unchanged since the start of 2015.


The Bank of Russia released the following statement:

"On 31 July 2015, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to reduce the key rate from 11.50 to 11.00 per cent per annum, taking into account that the balance of risks shifts towards the considerable economy cooling despite a slight increase in inflation risks. According to the Bank of Russia forecast, consumer price growth will continue to slow amid slack domestic demand. Annual inflation will fall below 7% in July 2016 and reach the 4% target in 2017. The Bank of Russia will further decide on its key rate depending on the balance of inflation risks and risks of economy cooling.
Annual inflation temporarily accelerated in July, which was expected and caused by a greater increase in utility tariffs compared with 2014. As of 27 July 2015, annual consumer price growth rate rose to 15.8% from 15.3% in June, according to Bank of Russia estimates. Weekly inflation declined to 0.0 — 0.1% again after a significant increase early this month. Amid a considerable reduction in real income slack consumer demand hampers consumer price growth.
Relatively tough monetary conditions also contain prices. Money supply (?2) growth rate remains low. Lending and deposit rates show downward trends under the influence of earlier Bank of Russia decisions to reduce the key rate. However, they still remain high, on the one hand, contributing to attractiveness of ruble savings, and, on the other hand, alongside with high debt burden and tighter borrower and collateral requirements, resulting in lower annual lending growth.
Major macroeconomic indicators demonstrate further economy cooling. The Bank of Russia estimates GDP decrease in 2015 Q2 compared with the similar quarter last year to be more significant than that in Q1 2015. Though structural factors continue hampering the economic growth, output contraction is having cyclical nature. Low consumer and business confidence as well as decreased capacity and labour force utilisation are indicative of this. However, unemployment remains low amid the negative demographic trends, while the labour market adjusts to the new conditions largely through wage decrease and growing part-time employment. These factors along with the decline in retail lending will result in further contraction of consumer spending. Fixed capital investments will continue to contract due to economic agents’ negative expectations with regard to the Russian economic outlook and tighter lending conditions. Poor substitution of external funding sources with domestic ones caused by shallow Russian financial market and high debt burden will also contain investment demand. Implementation of government anti-recession measures will facilitate investments. Sluggish investor and consumer activity will result in low demand for imports. Export decline will be less considerable given the floating exchange rate. As a result, net exports will be the only component to make a positive contribution to annual output growth. Due to a more significant domestic demand shrank than that expected in the first half of 2015, the output forecast may be revised downwards.
The economic situation in Russia will further depend on the dynamics of world energy prices and the economy’s ability to adapt to external shocks. At the same time the scenario with oil prices remaining below US$60 per barrel for a long time is more probable than it was in June.
Slack domestic demand will facilitate the continuation of annual inflation reduction in years 2015-2017. A slowdown in consumer price growth will make room for inflation expectations decrease. In early 2016, annual inflation is expected to decelerate considerably due to high base of 2015. According to Bank of Russia forecasts, in July 2016, annual consumer price growth will stand at below 7% to reach the 4% target in 2017.
Inflation risks arise mostly from aggravated external economic situation, enhanced inflation expectations, revision of increases in administered prices and tariffs, of payments indexation for 2016-2017, and fiscal policy easing in general. The Bank of Russia will further decide on its key rate depending on the balance of inflation risks and risks of economy cooling.
The next meeting of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors on the key rate is scheduled for 11 September 2015. The press release on the Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ decision is to be published at 13:30, Moscow time."
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Russia cuts rate 50 bps, GDP may shrink above forecast

Long Dated US Treasury Bonds Have Broken Out of Their Downward Channel

Long dated US Treasury bonds, as illustrated by the ETF TLT, have broken out and above the downward channel they were in. For those who believe US Treasury bonds are not yet done with their bull ride -- and that includes economist and fund manager Lacy Hunt, who has been correct on the bond market thus far since the 2008 financial crisis -- this might be an interesting time to buy.

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L'USD surfe sur le communiqué du FOMC

Le billet vert continue de trouver acheteur dans le sillage de la réunion du FOMC. Le communiqué de la Fed s'est révélé encourageant pour les haussiers du dollar, le comité ayant pris acte d'une amélioration de l'immobilier et de l'emploi. L'ajout de "quelques" constitue une modification cruciale dans la phrase "Le Comité anticipe qu'il sera approprié de relever le taux des fonds fédéraux quand...

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L'USD surfe sur le communiqué du FOMC

Technical Analysis by Hiwayfx

EURUSD
The EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday topped at 1.1016. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.1050/80. Immediate support is seen around 1.0965. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0900 area. Potential daily range today is seen between 1.1050 – 1.0900. My major technical outlook remains neutral but like I said yesterday, we might have some bullish run after bounced from 1.0820 key support.
eurusd17-645x370.jpg

GBPUSD
The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 1.5499. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.5420 area. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.5570. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but overall I prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. Potential daily range today is seen between 1.5570 – 1.5420.
gbpusd15-645x370.jpg
USDCHF
The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday slipped below 0.9540 support area but whipsawed to the upside and hit 0.9606 earlier today. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 0.9650. Immediate support is seen around 0.9570. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9540/25 area. Potential daily range today is seen between 0.9540 – 0.9650.

usdchf19-645x370.jpg

Attached Images

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• usdchf19-645x370.jpg (38.4 KB)

Technical Analysis by Hiwayfx

Dominican Rep. holds rate, inflation seen below target

The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (CBDR) left it monetary policy rate steady at 5.00 percent, saying forecast still show that inflation will remain below the lower limit of the bank's target for 2015 before converging to the center of the target range at the end of the forecast horizon.
Inflation in the Dominican Republic rose to 0.62 percent in June from 0.23 percent in May and a 2015-low of minus 0.04 percent in April.
The central bank targets inflation of 4.0 percent, plus/minus 1.0 percentage point. It has cut the rate by 125 basis points this year, most recently in May.
Domestic production, demand and employment remains on track to expand along its expected path, the central bank said, adding the current account deficit is projected at 2.0 percent of Gross Domestic Product by the end of the year, helping the foreign exchange market remains stable and the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, currently equal to 3.4 months of imports.
In May the central bank's governor raised his forecast for economic growth this year to around 6 percent, up from the previous forecast of 5.0-5.5 percent.


The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic issued the following statement:


"At its monetary policy meeting in July 2015, the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (CBDR) decided to keep its interest rate monetary policy at 5.00% annually.


The decision on the benchmark rate was made after reviewing the country macroeconomic outlook, mainly the balance of risks around inflation projections and expectations of the private sector and relevant international environment for the Dominican economy. It was noted that the annual inflation rate in June rose to 0.62%. The accumulated inflation stood at 0.60% at the end of that month. Likewise, core inflation, monetary conditions related to the economy, stood at 2.32% in June yoy. Forecasts continue to indicate that inflation would remain below the lower limit of the target set in the monetary program for 2015, converging to the center of the range of 4.0% ± 1.0% at the monetary policy horizon.


In the external environment, according to Consensus Forecast is forecast growth of United States of America (USA) of 2.4% for 2015 and 2.8% for 2016. Under this premise, it is expected that the US Federal Reserve started its standardization process currency in the fourth quarter and inflation gradually converging toward the goal at the end of 2016, after reaching the goal of unemployment around 5.25%. In the case of the Eurozone, Consensus Forecast expects an expansion of output of 1.5% for 2015 and 1.8% in 2016. Although there is still uncertainty as to the outcome of the crisis in Greece, the effects on market volatility capital have tended to moderate. Projections for Latin America were revised downwards and suggest that the economy would not grow in 2015, increasing by around 1.5% in 2016. However, this projection is highly influenced by the deteriorating situation in Venezuela growth. If this country were excluded from the sample, Latin America would grow about 0.7% in 2015 and 2.0% in 2016.


As for commodity prices, the correction in the stock markets of China, the second largest economy has been reflected in significant reductions accompanied by a trend appreciation of the dollar worldwide. In this context, the conservative estimates of the performance of the world economy in the medium term remain.


Domestically, domestic production, demand and employment expand as the expected path. The trend cycle monthly indicator of economic activity (IMAE) at end-May has an annual growth rate of around 6.1%, having been revised GDP growth in the first quarter from 6.5% to 6.6%. Also, credit to the private sector in domestic currency grew at an annual rate of around 11.5% in July. On the side of fiscal policy, public finances continue to show a surplus for the month of May, indicating that by the end of this year a primary surplus would be generated over the provisions of the National Budget 2015. The current level of public debt Consolidated is around 46.0% of GDP, below the regional average. Similarly, the external accounts are developing well, projecting a deficit of current account of the balance of payments at around 2.0% of GDP by year-end. This trend will benefit the relative stability of the exchange market and the accumulation of international reserves, which currently stand at around 3.4 months of imports.


The CRBBB confirms its commitment to implement monetary policy aimed at achieving its inflation target, while also continue to monitor the evolution of the world economy and the domestic situation, to take the necessary measures to risks to price stability and the proper functioning of the financial and payment systems."

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Dominican Rep. holds rate, inflation seen below target

Ukraine holds rate to support trend to lower inflation

The central bank of Ukraine held its benchmark discount rate steady at 30.0 percent to "consolidate the positive developments in the money market and support the trend to lower inflation," reiterating the reasoning it also used in its June policy statement.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) added that it expects a further slowdown in inflation as long as the current balance in the money market continues, setting up the conditions for a sustainable reduction in inflation risks and thus monetary easing.
The NBU raised its rate by 1,600 basis points this year, most recently by 1,050 points in March, and by a total of 2,350 points since April 2014 to protect the value of the hryvnia and curb inflation.
At today's meeting, the NBU board noted the gradual decrease in inflationary pressures and discussed possible changes in monetary instruments. It did not comment further on what those changes might be.
Ukraine's inflation rate eased to 57.5 percent in June from 58.4 percent in May and 60.9 percent in April, the highest rate seen since hyperinflation in the mid-1990s when it hit an all-time high of 530.3 percent in September 1995.
On the interbank and cash segments of the foreign exchange market in July, the central bank said demand for foreign currency was lower than supply, helping fluctuations in the exchange rate against the U.S. dollar stay in a "fairly narrow range."
The hryvnia depreciated by almost 50 percent against the U.S. dollar last year following the outbreak of armed conflict in Eastern Ukraine and the occupation of the Crimean peninsula by pro-Russian forces.
But following a cease-fire agreement in late February, rate hikes and administrative measures, the hryvnia has bounced back and stabilized. Today it was trading at 21 to the dollar, down 25 percent this year after hitting a low of 33.7 in late February.


The National Bank of Ukraine issued the following statement (translation by Google):

"In order to consolidate the positive developments in the money market and support the trend to lower inflation NBU Board decided to leave the discount rate unchanged at 30%. The decision was taken at a meeting of the National Bank of Ukraine, focused on monetary policy July 30, 2015.


At the meeting were discussed the macroeconomic situation, the monetary market, the forecast of further development of the situation and possible changes in monetary instruments. It was noted a gradual decrease in inflationary pressure. So in June continued slowdown of consumer inflation - increase in the consumer price index was 0.4% compared to 2.2% in the previous month. The rate of core inflation also slowed to 0.4% in June (compared to 4.6% in April and 1.9% in May). Restraining influence on price dynamics occurred, in particular by improving the balance of the currency market. On the interbank and cash segments of the foreign exchange market in July as in the previous two months, the demand for foreign currency was lower than its supply. Therefore, fluctuations in market rates against the US dollar occurred in a fairly narrow range.


"The positive changes that we see evidence of the effectiveness of stabilizing actions of the National Bank. Now the monetary market balanced and if this balance will remain - we expect a further slowdown in consumer inflation. So the conditions for sustainable reduction of inflation risks, we turn to monetary easing -kredytnoyi policy in the near future ", - commented on the current situation on the money market and the decision of the National Bank of Ukraine, the National Bank of Valery Gontareva."


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Ukraine holds rate to support trend to lower inflation

Egypt holds rate as commodities counter inflation risks

Egypt's central bank left its benchmark overnight deposit rate at 8.75 percent and repeated its view from June that upside risks to inflation from domestic supply shocks are largely mitigated by contained imported inflation from the fall in global commodity prices.
The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), which has maintained rates since a surprise rate cut in January, also repeated that risks to the global economy could pose downside risks to domestic growth despite the boost to growth from investments in domestic mega projects.
Egypt's headline inflation rate eased to 11.4 percent in June from 13.1 percent in May, mainly due to a drop in prices of fresh vegetables. Core consumer price inflation was largely steady at 8.07 percent in June compared with 8.14 percent the previous month.


The Central Bank of Egypt issued the following statement:

"In its meeting held on July 30, 2015, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the overnight deposit rate, overnight lending rate, and the rate of the CBE's main operation unchanged at 8.75 percent, 9.75 percent, and 9.25 percent, respectively. The discount rate was also kept unchanged at 9.25 percent.

Headline CPI declined by 0.70 percent (m/m) in June compared to an increase of 1.19 percent in May. Accordingly, the annual rate decelerated to 11.39 percent in June from 13.11 percent in May, supported partially by the favorable base effect from the previous year. The bulk of the monthly decline was driven by the drop in the prices of fresh vegetables, which was partly offset by the increase in the prices of other food items. On the other hand, core CPI increased by 0.61 percent in June compared to 0.65 percent in May, while the annual rate remained largely unchanged recording 8.07 percent in June. Upside risks to the inflation outlook from domestic supply shocks are largely mitigated by contained imported inflation, against the background of broad-based declines in international commodity prices.

Meanwhile, real GDP grew by 4.3 percent (y/y) in 2014/15 Q2 to record 5.6 percent (y/y) in the first half of the fiscal year, supported by the record growth witnessed in the first quarter. This comes after the 2013/14 fiscal year real GDP growth recorded 2.2 percent (y/y). The expansion in economic activity during 2014/2015 Q2 came on the back of the continued growth in the manufacturing sector and the expansion of tourism activities for the second consecutive quarter after several quarters of contraction. This came despite the continuous weakness in the extraction sector. In the meantime, while the widening trade deficit is stalling real GDP growth, investment remained positive for the fourth consecutive quarter. Looking ahead, while investments in domestic mega projects are expected to contribute to economic growth, the downside risks that surround the global economy on the back of challenges facing the Euro Area and the softening growth in emerging markets could pose downside risks to domestic GDP.

At this juncture, the MPC judges that the key CBE rates are currently appropriate given the balance of risks surrounding the inflation and GDP outlooks.

The MPC will continue to closely monitor all economic developments and will not hesitate to adjust the key CBE rates to ensure price stability over the medium-term."

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Egypt holds rate as commodities counter inflation risks

FIBONACCI "perfect structures"

Hello folks,

let me cut it short. Thanks to this website. i learned a lot,

i would like to have the authorization to post a complete tutorial on a strategy i came up with based on fibonacci perfect-structures. (Not a particularly new concept, but yields over 95% wins when well used. With a fixed SL and fixed PT).:cool:

Have a good trading day

bye

FIBONACCI "perfect structures"

forex scalping 30 7 2015

oops sorry wrong place to post

forex scalping 30 7 2015

Mexico maintains rate, economy is weak and inflation low

Mexico's central bank held its benchmark target for the overnight interest rate steady at 3.0 percent, as expected, but added that the economy continues to show weakness while headline inflation is expected to remain below the target in 2015.
However, the Bank of Mexico added that "the possible monetary policy actions of the Federal Reserve could have additional repercussions on exchange rates, inflation expectations and the dynamics of prices in Mexico."
The central bank will therefore remain attentive to inflation, the exchange rate, the slack in the economy and the monetary stance between Mexico and the United States, so it is in a position to take the necessary measures to strengthen the convergence of inflation to its 3.0 precent target.
Mexico's inflation rate fell to less-than-expected 2.87 percent in June from 2.88 percent in May but the central bank attributed this to lower prices for energy, raw materials and services rather than the impact of a depreciation of the peso.
Expectations for headline and core inflation by end 2015 and end-2016 have declined to an average of below 3 percent while long-run expectations remain well anchored, the bank said.
Given the expected slack in the economy in coming quarters, the central bank expects overall inflation to remain below 3 percent for the rest of this year but then reach levels close to 3 percent in 2016. This forecast, however, is subject to upside risks from a depreciation of the peso and downside risks from lower economic activity, further decreased in energy prices and services, including telecommunications.
Economic activity in Mexico continues to moderate, the bank said, with investment and exports deteriorating from the second half of last year while consumption has grown. The balance of risks to growth have deteriorated compared to the previous policy decision in June.
The peso started declining in May 2014 and it has continued to drop this year as investors are concerned that a rise in U.S. rates will trigger an outflow of funds from emerging markets, such as Mexico, and into U.S. dollar assets.
The peso was trading at 16.27 to the U.S. dollar today, down 9.4 percent since the start of 2015.

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Mexico maintains rate, economy is weak and inflation low

Bangladesh holds rate, to mull easing when inflation falls

The central bank of Bangladesh held its benchmark repurchase rate steady at 7.25 percent, but said "easing will be considered after point-to-point headline general inflation and core CPI inflation take a sustained declining trend."
The Bangladesh Bank, which has maintained its rate since February 2013, said the current level of inflation is "moderate," but the government's 6.2 percent target for fiscal 2016, which began on July 1, "implies that we need to go for further reduction by slightly pressing the brake on the price level."
The current level of money supply in Bangladesh is cautious but at the same time "generously accommodative for growth generating pursuits," the bank said.
The central bank said general inflation eased to 6.40 percent in June from 6.87 percent in January but core inflation rose to 6.74 percent from 6.08 percent in January, warranting a cautious policy stance.
"Gains in inflation declined earned over this period do not yet make a case for easing of policy interest rats, given that both headline point-to-point CPI inflation and core CPI inflation have edged up recently," the bank said, attributing the fall in inflation to declining food prices.
The bank added that the fall in global fuel prices may have played a role in dampening inflationary concerns but the government did not adjust prices. Given that food occupies almost 60 percent of the consumption basket, this played a major role in pulling down inflation.
The government of Bangladesh is targeting 7 percent economic growth in fiscal 2016 compared with an estimated 6.5 percent in fiscal 2015.
Gross Domestic Product in 2014 grew by 6.12 percent in calendar 2014 and policymakers are aiming to break out of the pattern of growth around 6 percent that has persisted for the past 12 years.


Bangladesh Bank issued the following highlights in its monetary policy statement for July-December 2015:


"Highlights
? This is a cautious but explicitly pro-growth monetary policy stance supporting the 7 percent growth target and the 6.2 percent inflation target for the fiscal year 2016.
? Reserve money is projected to grow at 16 percent and broad money (M2) at 15.6 percent which are adequate to support the growth and inflation targets. It has also taken the growth rates of both public and private credit into account.
? Domestic credit is projected to grow at 16.5 percent at the end of the fiscal year 2016. Private sector credit is projected to grow at 15 percent and public sector credit at 23.7 percent.
? This is a growth supportive monetary policy that promotes investments through the strategy of selective easing.
? Policy interest rates (repo, reverse repo) will remain unchanged, but easing will be considered after point-to-point headline general inflation and core CPI inflation take a sustained declining trend.
? Bangladesh Bank's supervisory vigilance on banking governance will be straightened further to clamp down on loan delinquencies.
? Besides already ongoing inclusive financing for farm and nonfarm small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and the export development (EDF) fund support for exporters, new medium to longer term financing windows totaling USD 500 million will be opened in the fiscal year 2016 for financing of manufacturing enterprises, and for greening initiatives in the export oriented textiles, apparels, and leather sectors.
? As before, Bangladesh Bank's monetary and financial policy stance remains grounded on the developmental central banking mandate enshrined in its charter."

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Bangladesh holds rate, to mull easing when inflation falls

Fiji maintains rate, economy on track for 4.3% growth

Fiji's central bank left its benchmark Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) steady at 0.50 percent, saying the country's economy remains on track to reach the 4.3 percent growth forecast for this year while the bank's twin objectives remain intact.
The Reserve Bank of Fiji (RBF), which has maintained its rate since November 2011, said the improved outlook for tourism and gold, and buoyant demand is supporting the growth outlook along with improved business confidence, continued credit demand and investment in projects.
Downside risks are represented by a potential decline in government spending and weather-related hit to cane output, RBF Governor Barry Whiteside said in a statement.
Fiji's economy expanded by 4.1 percent last year and the International Monetary Fund in April forecast 3.3 percent growth in 2015.
Fiji's inflation rate rose to 0.8 percent in June from 0.6 percent in May, and Whiteside said he expects inflationary pressure to remain "subdued" due to modest growth in the country's trading partners because the expected pick-up in global growth has not yet materialized.
Fiji's foreign reserves amounted to US$1.988.6 billion as of July 30 - equal to 5 months of imports - from $1.987 billion as of June 30.


The Reserve Bank of Fiji issued the following statement:


"The Reserve Bank of Fiji (RBF) Board at its monthly meeting on 30 July agreed to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 0.50 percent.
The Governor and Chairman of the Board, Mr Barry Whiteside stated that “on the international front, the expected pick-up in global growth has not fully materialised. As a result, Fiji’s trading partners’ recent growth outcomes have remained modest, with external inflationary pressures remaining subdued.”
Mr Whiteside noted that domestically, improved sectoral outcomes for tourism and gold and buoyant demand conditions are indicative of Fiji’s currently strong growth outlook. Improved business confidence as seen in higher recruitment intentions, combined with continued credit demand and ongoing construction and infrastructure projects confirm the robust investment activity to date. While potentially lower Government expenditure and weather-related impact on cane output present downside risks to this outlook, on balance, the Fijian economy is on track to achieve the 4.3 percent growth projected for this year.
The Governor also highlighted that the twin objectives of monetary policy remained intact, with the June inflation rate at a low 0.8 percent and the 30 July 2015 foreign reserves level adequate at $1,988.6 million (5.0 months of retained imports of goods and non-factor services cover).
The Chairman concluded that, “the Reserve Bank of Fiji will continue to monitor global and domestic economic developments and align monetary policy accordingly.”

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Fiji maintains rate, economy on track for 4.3% growth

Moldova raises rate 200 bps, sees accelerating inflation

Moldova's central bank raised its benchmark base rate by 200 basis points to 17.50 percent, saying it expects inflation to accelerate in coming quarters to above the upper limit of its inflation target as the depreciation of the leu will raise the prices of imported goods and services and due to the comparison with last year's lower base.
The National Bank of Moldova (NBM), which has now raised its rate by 11 percentage points this year, added that it expects the negative output gap in the economy to continue over the next eight quarters due to weak domestic demand, which will reduce future inflationary pressures.
The central bank's council approved the latest inflation report, which will be presented on Aug. 6, that raised the forecast for average inflation in 2015 by 1.2 percentage points to 9.3 percent and the 2016 forecast by 5.2 points to 11.6 percent compared with the May forecast.
The central bank, which targets inflation at a midpoint of 5.0 percent, within a range of 3.5 to 6.5 percent, said it expects inflation to return to its target range in the second quarter of 2017.
In addition to raising its base rate, NBM also raised the rate on overnight loans by 200 basis points to 20.5 percent and the rate on overnight deposits to 14.50 percent from 12.50 percent.
In order to sterilize some of the excess liquidity and improve the transmission of the policy decisions, the central bank also raised the required reserves for leu and non-convertible deposits by 600 basis points to 32.0 percent for the period Sept. 8 through Oct. 7. Reserves on freely convertible currencies was maintained at 14.0 percent.
Moldova's inflation rate rose to 8.3 percent in June from 8.1 percent in May for the highest rate since November 2011, mainly due to higher core inflation and food prices.
The Moldavian leu has been depreciating since July 2014 and hit a low of 4.2 to the U.S. dollar in mid-March. Since then it has appreciated, trading at 4.0 today but still down 7.5 percent this year.
NBM said its policy stance was still affected by a complexity of risks, with the emphasis on inflationary risks. Weak economic activity in the euro area and recession in Russia - its main trading partners - affects the foreign income of households and domestic exporters.
"The escalation of geopolitical tension in the region could cause additional inflationary pressures," the NBM said.
Moldova is a former Soviet state that is located between Romania to the west and Ukraine to the north, south and ease.
Exports and imports in the first two months of the year fell by 18.3 and 25.0 percent, respectively, from the same period last year while industrial production was up by 1.8 percent, NBM said.

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Moldova raises rate 200 bps, sees accelerating inflation

Iron is the Most Crushed of all Commodities

And coffee isn't far off.

The chart below shows how several major commodities have been performing year to date. They are all down, a consequence of a rising dollar and a slowing China, though iron clearly the most depressed. The only commodity that seems to be holding up relatively well is uranium, which is down 2.59% for the year.

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Iron is the Most Crushed of all Commodities

[text] 1 In 5 US Stocks Now In Bear Market | Zero Hedge

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"With the major US equity markets within 1-2% of their record highs, Gavekal Capital notes that underneath the headline indices, stock markets are extremely tumultuous. Rather stunningly 21% of MSCI USA stocks are at least 20% off their recent highs, and 68% of Canadian stocks are in bear markets, but the real carnage is taking place in Emerging Markets.

This is only the third time since the summer of 2012 that this many stocks are in a bear market. The most interesting aspect of this internal correction is the fact that the headline index is a mere 1.8% off the 200-day high. On October 10, 2014 when 21% of MSCI USA stocks were in a bear market, the headline MSCI USA index was 5.4% off the 200-day high. And on November 8, 2012 when 21% of the MSCI USA stocks were in a bear market, the headline index was 6% off the 200-day high.

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The pain felt in US stocks is nothing compared to many markets around the world.

Just a reminder that this all based on USD performance.

Canadian stocks have been getting pummeled. 68% of Canadian stocks are in a bear market. This is the greatest percentage of stocks in a bear market since 2011.

30% of MSCI Hong Kong stocks are in a bear market and*29% of MSCI Singapore stocks are in a bear market as well."

[text] 1 In 5 US Stocks Now In Bear Market | Zero Hedge

Forex scalping in the London open 30 7 2015

Forex scalping in the London open

Markets was slow and choppy today but we managed to take our daily bread and butter in gbpusdhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVQSq-iL_C4kalimera everyone no signals this morning market is slow[10:36:44] Basil-kodikos says: long signal in pound limit order 1,5600 buy[11:11:41] Basil-kodikos says: entered 1,5603 in gbpusd[11:24:51] Basil-kodikos says:first target hit[11:28:02] makis says: (cash)Â* but a little dangerous , market is too choppy like yesterday .I think most traders went to the beach....[11:28:42] Basil-kodikos says: follwing signals maki -10-15 pips nothing more[11:29:36] Basil-kodikos says: always in trend pointing the chart nothing more[11:30:00] Basil-kodikos says: boring but effective[11:30:37] makis says: yes it seems that works![11:31:22] Basil-kodikos says: now entry is covered free trade just wait were the order will stop[11:31:50] Basil-kodikos says: no guessing were i must close let ninjatrader to do the work sentiment out[11:32:56] Basil-kodikos says: only some times were i see support and resistance formed in auxiliary chart I put trailing on the support or resistance to avoid stop out by a pip or tweo no more tweaking[11:33:12] makis says: when the signal is formed price was at 1,5610 , limit order long -10 pips (with spread) 1,56?[11:34:10] Basil-kodikos says: yes entered in 1.5603[11:34:43] makis says: if we set limit buy 10 pips less maybe order will not execute....Â*Â*Â* orÂ* yourÂ* entry was market?[11:35:50] Basil-kodikos says: yes it may not execute but you are safe better safe than sorry[11:36:22] makis says: (y)[11:36:58] Basil-kodikos says: the tokyo session was narrow it has the characteristics of consolidation and breakout for many pips equal to the ranging length now we are +15[11:37:25] Basil-kodikos says: tokyo session 23 pips[11:38:33] Basil-kodikos says: trailing will offer good pips as long as we have momentum if it starts ranging the trade smells[11:38:34] makis says: (y)[11:39:03] makis says: bad smell![11:39:22] Basil-kodikos says: yep[11:42:01] Basil-kodikos says: entered the trailing 1,5611 under 2 resistances if it moves under 11 we close the trade , because some people will short the median line ema 50 , lets see if bulls will prevail over bears[11:44:44] Basil-kodikos says:[11:46:49] Basil-kodikos says: stop filled +4 pips for the trail

Forex scalping in the London open 30 7 2015

Forex scalping London -New York 29 7 2015

Forex scalping London -New York

Hello,
Today is an especially difficult day since we have FOMC.
Statistically these days are ranging and difficult to predict direction since everyone is waiting the FOMC to take direction.
We are starting early in the morning 30 minutes after Frankfurt open and we continue to scalp until London noon and then again in the New York open to see how we handle a difficult day.
Video with the European session

kalimera everyone possible scalps in gbpusd, eurjpy gbpjpy waiting for the best retracement
[09:34:09] Basil-kodikos says: all shorts
[09:42:30] Basil-kodikos says: 192,83 entered in gbpjpy
[09:45:50] Basil-kodikos says:
forex scalping software main and auxiliary chart

[09:52:35] Basil-kodikos says: gbpjpy produced opposite signal I must get out in breakeven
[09:54:05] Basil-kodikos says:

[10:04:05] Basil-kodikos says: entered short in ej with reduced position
[10:15:58] Basil-kodikos says: closed gbpjpy in breakeven and reversed long position now
[10:22:39] Basil-kodikos says: price action is choppy and ranging
[10:30:36] Basil-kodikos says: gbp news in 60 minutes
[10:37:19] Basil-kodikos says: gu goes south gj try to go north
[10:41:21] Basil-kodikos says: hitting the first 10 pip target in gbpjpy
[10:41:23] Basil-kodikos says:

[10:42:01] Basil-kodikos says: there is a falling trend line in gj it must break in order to go further north
[10:53:43] Basil-kodikos says: gj broke the trend line we are trailing now +12
[11:11:17] Basil-kodikos says: gbpjpy stopped out
[11:22:05] Basil-kodikos says: opposite signal formed in eurjpy setting stop loss in breakeven
[11:41:59] Basil-kodikos says: stop loss hit in eurjpy
[11:48:08] makis says: possible long ej tp1=136.92 r1&yhigh
[11:57:17] Basil-kodikos says: yep eurjpy is long now but i think it will retrace first to 55 area
[11:57:36] Basil-kodikos says: also there is a falling trendline in this
[12:02:36] makis says: Yes, sloss < 135.5
[14:05:42] Basil-kodikos says: entered long in eurjpy in retracement 136,68
[15:39:27] Basil-kodikos says: closing at breakeven +2 since opposite signal formed I have average the position to go green in this
[15:41:15] Basil-kodikos says:

[15:46:35] Basil-kodikos says: shorted is 65 to go along with the short signal

[15:56:43] Basil-kodikos says: eurjpy consolidating preparing to move in the New York open ,it didn't move for the day producing three ranging signals we are on the third short one
[16:12:21] Basil-kodikos says: closing scalping target
[16:13:45] Basil-kodikos says:

[16:20:11] Basil-kodikos says: eurjpy is breaking 50 trailing is +17
[16:20:42] Basil-kodikos says: today is a difficult day statistically FOMC days are ranging and difficult for forex scalping
[16:35:32] Basil-kodikos says: moved trailing stop one pip to be above the micro resistance in auxiliary micro chart
[16:37:09] Basil-kodikos says: formed support in 136,45
trailing in eurjpy stopped out +5
[17:47:11] Basil-kodikos says:
Stopping for today ,have a nice evening
My skype username is basil.kodikos in case you want to ask something about the forex scalping strategy
My email is admin(at)forexraiders.com

Forex scalping London -New York 29 7 2015

Forex scalping in the London open 30 7 2015

Forex scalping in the London open

Markets was slow and choppy today but we managed to take our daily bread and butter in gbpusdhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVQSq-iL_C4kalimera everyone no signals this morning market is slow[10:36:44] Basil-kodikos says: long signal in pound limit order 1,5600 buy[11:11:41] Basil-kodikos says: entered 1,5603 in gbpusd[11:24:51] Basil-kodikos says:first target hit[11:28:02] makis says: (cash)Â* but a little dangerous , market is too choppy like yesterday .I think most traders went to the beach....[11:28:42] Basil-kodikos says: follwing signals maki -10-15 pips nothing more[11:29:36] Basil-kodikos says: always in trend pointing the chart nothing more[11:30:00] Basil-kodikos says: boring but effective[11:30:37] makis says: yes it seems that works![11:31:22] Basil-kodikos says: now entry is covered free trade just wait were the order will stop[11:31:50] Basil-kodikos says: no guessing were i must close let ninjatrader to do the work sentiment out[11:32:56] Basil-kodikos says: only some times were i see support and resistance formed in auxiliary chart I put trailing on the support or resistance to avoid stop out by a pip or tweo no more tweaking[11:33:12] makis says: when the signal is formed price was at 1,5610 , limit order long -10 pips (with spread) 1,56?[11:34:10] Basil-kodikos says: yes entered in 1.5603[11:34:43] makis says: if we set limit buy 10 pips less maybe order will not execute....Â*Â*Â* orÂ* yourÂ* entry was market?[11:35:50] Basil-kodikos says: yes it may not execute but you are safe better safe than sorry[11:36:22] makis says: (y)[11:36:58] Basil-kodikos says: the tokyo session was narrow it has the characteristics of consolidation and breakout for many pips equal to the ranging length now we are +15[11:37:25] Basil-kodikos says: tokyo session 23 pips[11:38:33] Basil-kodikos says: trailing will offer good pips as long as we have momentum if it starts ranging the trade smells[11:38:34] makis says: (y)[11:39:03] makis says: bad smell![11:39:22] Basil-kodikos says: yep[11:42:01] Basil-kodikos says: entered the trailing 1,5611 under 2 resistances if it moves under 11 we close the trade , because some people will short the median line ema 50 , lets see if bulls will prevail over bears[11:44:44] Basil-kodikos says:[11:46:49] Basil-kodikos says: stop filled +4 pips for the trail

Forex scalping in the London open 30 7 2015

(Help) Adjust EA

Hi,

Need someone who can adjust this ea. Take profit not set as it's should. Should be put at yellow link. Anybody?

Thanks.

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(Help) Adjust EA

Stochastic Cycle - VertexFX VTL

The Stochastic cycle indicator shows the turning points in the stochastic indicator. This is useful for identifying divergence between the indicator and price. The indicator plots the standard stochastic oscillator and marks the upward turning points with green dots and downward turning points with red dots. This gives added visual advantage while viewing the stochastic indicator.

The indicator can be customized to show how many bars to display the indicator in chart. Stochastic oscillator is used to identify overbought/oversold market conditions. It is also used to trade divergence between oscillator and price. The stochastic cycle indicator provides better visual representation with the dots marking the turning points.


Usually values above 70 is considered as overbought. When a red dot appears above 70, the interpretation is that the upward move is losing momentum. When it is below 30 and green dot appears, the down move is losing momentum. A divergence trade example is marked in the chart.

Attached Files

• StochasticCycle.zip (2.1 KB)

Stochastic Cycle - VertexFX VTL

Brazil raise rate 50 bps, signals pause in tightening cycle

Brazil's central bank raised its benchmark Selic rate by another 50 basis points to 14.25 percent, but signaled that it will pause in its tightening campaign by saying that it will be necessary to maintain the rate at this level for a "sufficiently long period" in order for inflation to converge toward its target by the end of 2016.
The Central Bank of Brazil has now raised its Selic rate by 250 basis points this year and by 700 points since embarking on its current monetary tightening cycle in April 2014 in an effort to bring inflation down to its target of 4.5 percent, plus/minus 2 percentage points.
The central bank's monetary policy committee, known as Copom, was unanimous in its decision.
The Selic rate is now at its highest level since September 2006 as inflation in June rose to 8.89 percent from May's 8.47 percent, reaching the highest annual rate since December 2003 when the Selic rate was 16.50 percent.
Brazil's Gross Domestic Product shrank by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2015 from the final quarter of last year for annual decline of 1.6 percent, the fourth consecutive quarter of a contraction of economic output.
The real has been falling since July 2011, when it was trading around 1.55 to the U.S. dollar, and has now depreciated to 3.33, a fall of 53 percent. Since the beginning of this year it has fallen 20 percent.
While today's rate hike was widely expected, the central bank has recently signaled that it was close to ending its tightening campaign as inflationary expectations have come down.

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Brazil raise rate 50 bps, signals pause in tightening cycle

Forex Signal

Forex Profit signal is a suggestion for entering a trade on a currency pair, usually at a specific price and time. The signal is generated either by a human analyst. WE ARE PROVIDE TWO TIMES FOREX SIGNALS. (GMT 5.30 AM AND GMT 12.00 PM). Our Forex Signal Guarantee 1000 Pips Profit For Only 50$ PER MONTH three month 120$ usd. With accurate forex signals you will have the best results. Forexprofitsignal.com is a forex signal site of experienced forex market analysts, forex fundamental analyses and forex technical analyses.

Forex Signal

Dans l'attente du FOMC

La majeure partie des marchés actions asiatiques évoluent dans le vert ce mercredi, dans le sillage d'une séance américaine de meilleure facture. Le Hang Seng prend 0.26% et le Shanghai Composite 0.15%, mais le Nikkei lâche -0.16%. La volatilité s'est affaiblie. Les taux sont restés stables en Asie, alors que les 10 ans US ont progressé de 2 pb à 2.253%. Sur le marché des changes, la volatilité...

JPY -0.06 GBP -0.08 CHF -0.13 EUR -0.13

plus...

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Dans l'attente du FOMC

Fed still needs better jobs market, inflation for rate rise

The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, maintained its benchmark federal funds rate at 0 - 0.25 percent, as widely expected, and repeated its guidance from June that it first expects to raise the rate "when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term."
The statement from the Fed's policy-making body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), also reiterated its view that the U.S. economic activity "has been expanding moderately" in recent months and the underutilization of labour resources had diminished.
It also repeated that inflation continues to run below its objective and is expected to remain near its recent level in the near term. However, the FOMC still expects inflation to rise gradually as the labor market improves and the temporary effects of the fall in energy prices and import prices dissipate.
The U.S. unemployment rate fell further to 5.3 percent in June from 5.5 percent in May, close to what some officials consider full employment.
The headline inflation rate rose slightly to 0.1 percent in June from zero in May, the first time it rose above zero or minus in six months.
U.S. Gross Domestic Product contracted by 0.2 percent in the first quarter from the fourth quarter but on an annual basis GDP expanded by 2.9 percent, up from 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter and the strongest rate since the fourth quarter of 2013.
The Fed has maintained its fed funds rate at the current level since December 2008.



The Federal Reserve issued the following statement:

"Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that economic activity has been expanding moderately in recent months. Growth in household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown additional improvement; however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft. The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.


Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of earlier declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.


To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.


The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.


When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.


Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams."


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Fed still needs better jobs market, inflation for rate rise

Forex scalping London -New York 29 7 2015

Forex scalping London -New York

Hello,
Today is an especially difficult day since we have FOMC.
Statistically these days are ranging and difficult to predict direction since everyone is waiting the FOMC to take direction.
We are starting early in the morning 30 minutes after Frankfurt open and we continue to scalp until London noon and then again in the New York open to see how we handle a difficult day.
Video with the European session

kalimera everyone possible scalps in gbpusd, eurjpy gbpjpy waiting for the best retracement
[09:34:09] Basil-kodikos says: all shorts
[09:42:30] Basil-kodikos says: 192,83 entered in gbpjpy
[09:45:50] Basil-kodikos says:
forex scalping software main and auxiliary chart

[09:52:35] Basil-kodikos says: gbpjpy produced opposite signal I must get out in breakeven
[09:54:05] Basil-kodikos says:

[10:04:05] Basil-kodikos says: entered short in ej with reduced position
[10:15:58] Basil-kodikos says: closed gbpjpy in breakeven and reversed long position now
[10:22:39] Basil-kodikos says: price action is choppy and ranging
[10:30:36] Basil-kodikos says: gbp news in 60 minutes
[10:37:19] Basil-kodikos says: gu goes south gj try to go north
[10:41:21] Basil-kodikos says: hitting the first 10 pip target in gbpjpy
[10:41:23] Basil-kodikos says:

[10:42:01] Basil-kodikos says: there is a falling trend line in gj it must break in order to go further north
[10:53:43] Basil-kodikos says: gj broke the trend line we are trailing now +12
[11:11:17] Basil-kodikos says: gbpjpy stopped out
[11:22:05] Basil-kodikos says: opposite signal formed in eurjpy setting stop loss in breakeven
[11:41:59] Basil-kodikos says: stop loss hit in eurjpy
[11:48:08] makis says: possible long ej tp1=136.92 r1&yhigh
[11:57:17] Basil-kodikos says: yep eurjpy is long now but i think it will retrace first to 55 area
[11:57:36] Basil-kodikos says: also there is a falling trendline in this
[12:02:36] makis says: Yes, sloss < 135.5
[14:05:42] Basil-kodikos says: entered long in eurjpy in retracement 136,68
[15:39:27] Basil-kodikos says: closing at breakeven +2 since opposite signal formed I have average the position to go green in this
[15:41:15] Basil-kodikos says:

[15:46:35] Basil-kodikos says: shorted is 65 to go along with the short signal

[15:56:43] Basil-kodikos says: eurjpy consolidating preparing to move in the New York open ,it didn't move for the day producing three ranging signals we are on the third short one
[16:12:21] Basil-kodikos says: closing scalping target
[16:13:45] Basil-kodikos says:

[16:20:11] Basil-kodikos says: eurjpy is breaking 50 trailing is +17
[16:20:42] Basil-kodikos says: today is a difficult day statistically FOMC days are ranging and difficult for forex scalping
[16:35:32] Basil-kodikos says: moved trailing stop one pip to be above the micro resistance in auxiliary micro chart
[16:37:09] Basil-kodikos says: formed support in 136,45
trailing in eurjpy stopped out +5
[17:47:11] Basil-kodikos says:
Stopping for today ,have a nice evening
My skype username is basil.kodikos in case you want to ask something about the forex scalping strategy
My email is admin(at)forexraiders.com

Forex scalping London -New York 29 7 2015

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Malawi maintains rate, but sees rising inflation

Malawi's central bank maintained its policy rate at 25.00 percent, unchanged since November 2014, but added it would reduce the Liquidity Reserve Requirement (LRR) to 7.5 percent to "enable banks to lower the spread between the prime lending rate and the policy rate."
The Reserve Bank of Malawi also said in the minutes from its monetary policy committee meeting on July 28 that it expected inflation to continue to trend upwards largely due to rising food prices and the depreciating kwacha.
Malawi's inflation rate rose to 21.3 percent in June, the highest rate so far this year, from 19.5 percent in May and January's 21.2 percent. In June 2014 inflation was 22.5 percent.
The kwacha started depreciating sharply in May 2012 and hit a low of 493 to the U.S. dollar in November last year. Since then it has traded largely sideways, quoted at 460.16 to the dollar today, up 1.16 percent since the beginning of this year but down 6.7 percent since the start of 2014.
The central bank also said its growth estimate for 2015 was unchanged at 5.4 percent.
Central bank foreign exchange reserves amounted to US$714.1 million as of end-June, up from $693.4 million in May and $480.7 million in June 2014. For the country as a whole, foreign exchange reserves amounted to $997.5 million, or 4.8 months of imports, at the end of June from $982 million end-May.
"Despite the country recording higher foreign exchange reserves than last year, the kwacha has continued to depreciate sharply," the central bank said.


The Reserve Bank of Malawi issued the following statement:

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 28th July 2015 to review recent economic developments and decide on Monetary Policy stance. The Committee resolved to maintain the Policy Rate at 25 percent and, effective 1st August 2015, reduce the Liquidity Reserve Requirement (LRR) ratio to 7.5 percent to enable banks to lower the spread between the prime lending rate and the policy rate.
The global economy is likely to grow at a slower pace than initially anticipated. Global growth is now forecast at 3.3 percent in 2015, down from the April forecast of 3.5 percent. Oil prices are projected to drop in 2015 and average US$59.0 per barrel, from US$96.2 per barrel in 2014, owing to strong increases in production.
On the domestic front, real GDP growth estimate remains unchanged at 5.4 percent in 2015.
Inflation accelerated to 21.3 percent in June 2015, from 19.5 percent in the preceding month and 22.5 percent in June 2014. Looking ahead, inflation is expected to continue to trend upwards largely due to rising food prices and the depreciating Kwacha.
As of May 2015, net government borrowing was at K110.0 billion, from K99.3 billion in March 2015. Gross credit to private sector amounted to K308.7 billion in May 2015 from K298.3 billion in March 2015.
The underlying pace of monetary expansion in the year to May 2015 is below the projected nominal GDP growth of 21.8 percent for 2015, reflecting a sustained tight monetary policy stance. Money supply growth decelerated to 10.3 percent in May 2015, from a high of 32.5 percent in January 2014 and 14.3 percent in January 2015. The slowdown in money growth was explained by a drop in net domestic credit. In the first 5 months of the year 2015, annual money supply growth averaged 12.8 percent against 31.9 percent recorded in a similar period of 2014.
Applying an adjusted monthly foreign exchange requirement of US$209 million, the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves were US$714.1 million (3.4 months of imports) at end June 2015, from US$693.4 (3.3 months of imports) in May 2015 and US$480.7 million (2.3 months of imports) in June 2014. For the country as a whole, foreign exchange reserves amounted to US$997.5 million (4.8 months of imports) in June 2015, from US$982.0 million (4.7 months of imports) in May 2015, and US$744.2 million (3.9 months of import) in June 2014. Despite, the country recording higher foreign exchange reserves than last year, the Kwacha has continued to depreciate sharply.



The banking system’s liquidity conditions were relatively tight in June 2015. Daily excess reserves averaged K4.68 billion in June 2015, from K19.1 billion in March 2015. Consequently the interbank market rate rose to 25.3 percent in June 2015 from 5.0 percent observed in March 2015. On the other hand, the all- type Treasury bill yield closed the month of June at 25.2 percent, from 24.9 percent in the previous month."

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Malawi maintains rate, but sees rising inflation