Originally Published by Casey Research
Editors Note: Its build your own financial empire week here at Casey Research.View the Casey Research Guide to Crisis Investing on InformedTrades
Each day this week, in place of our regular daily market commentary, youll receive an essay with proven strategies on how to build a lifetime of crisis-proof, inflation-proof wealth. Click here if you missed yesterdays edition.
This essay is part of the field guide we send to every new reader of our flagship research service, The Casey Report.
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Principle #1: Align yourself with the best people. Always.
Lets say that in two years time, oil stocks become extremely cheap and represent a great buying opportunity.
When we move to invest our capital in oil, were not going to buy a startup company with an unproven business plan. Were going to invest alongside the worlds best oil company operators. Were going to buy ownership stakes in the best oil assets.
Life is too short to work with people with no track record and no reputation.
When we invest in an industry, we invest only with proven operators with excellent reputations and excellent records of value creation.
By investing only with proven operators and proven business models, well miss the occasional long shot that pays off big, but well also miss the 100 other long shots that fail.
Principle #2: Employ dynamic asset allocation. Dont stick to a rigid asset allocation system. Buy the best values in order to make the largest, safest gains.
Talk to an investment advisor for more than five minutes and youre bound to hear the words asset allocation.
Its the part of your investment strategy that dictates how you divide your wealth into various assets, like stocks, real estate, cash, gold, and bonds.
Asset allocation is 100 times more important than knowing what stock or commodity to buy is. Keeping your wealth in a diversified mix of businesses, real estate, cash, gold, and other vehicles will prevent you from suffering a catastrophic loss in case one asset plummets in value.
For example, folks who had the bulk of their wealth in technology stocks in 2000 suffered huge losses as the tech sector fell more than 70% off its peak. Folks who had the bulk of their wealth in real estate in 2006 suffered huge losses as the housing market collapsed.
Conventional asset allocation often dictates that you subtract your age from 100 and convert that number into a percentage. That is the percentage of your investable wealth that should go into stocks. The rest should go into bonds. For example, if youre 60 years old, you should have 40% of your portfolio in stocks and 60% of it in bonds.
If you invest with conventional wisdom in mind, youll get conventional results. But you can achieve two, three, five, or even 10 times the returns with something we call dynamic asset allocation.
Dynamic asset allocation doesnt follow a set of rigid guidelines. Its a way of managing your wealth that focuses simply on buying bargains in stocks, bonds, real estate, natural resources, and currencies. Its overriding mandate is to buy great values, wherever and whenever they appear.
If you cant buy stocks at great values, dont buy stocks. If you cant buy real estate at great values, dont buy real estate.
With dynamic asset allocation, you only act if there are great values available. You wont mindlessly buy assets no matter what their price just because some formula told you to.
Employing dynamic asset allocation takes more work than other strategies do. If you dont have the time or interest to work on it, youre probably best sticking with a simple asset allocation formula. But if youre willing to take control of your wealth, you can make much larger returns with dynamic asset allocation.
Principle #3: See a crisis as an opportunity not as a reason to panic.
If theres one great difference between amateur investors and skilled professionals, its that amateurs react to crisis by panicking. Professionals react to crisis by calmly looking to buy assets at fire sale prices.
Most people dont realize this, but a crisis situation is one of the few times youll ever get to buy assets for bargain prices. A crisis creates panic. When people panic, they dump stocks and bonds and commodities with little regard to their real values. They just sell first and ask questions later.
This air of irrationality creates irrational asset prices. If you can keep your head, you can take advantage of the irrationality and buy assets on the cheap. This leads to huge gains down the road.
Thats why, when a great investor reads a headline like Asian stock markets crash or Offshore drilling stocks plummet in wake of Gulf of Mexico oil spill, he immediately starts wondering if the crisis has created a buying opportunity.
For example, in 1998, Russia suffered a giant financial crisis. Back then, people thought Russia itself was going to implode. The government defaulted on its debt and the currency collapsed. The Russian stock market hit a low in late 1998. It looked as bleak as an investment could get.
Around this time, Russian stocks were extremely depressed and extremely cheap. Then, ten years later, the Russian stock market had gained over 6,000%. Thats a six with 1,000 after it.
You can make extraordinary returns buying after a crisis. The greatest trader ever, George Soros, has a good quote about this...or at least it is attributed to him. He said, The worse a situation becomes, the less it takes to turn it around, and the bigger the upside.
Thats a great way to sum up crisis investing. When things are truly bad...and assets are truly cheap...just a tiny bit of optimism can produce giant investment gains.
Principle #4: Dont be focused on how much you can win be focused on how much you can lose.
Ive often said there are five magic words to successful investing
They are: How much can I lose?
Almost every novice investor focuses on making money. They focus exclusively on the potential upside of an investment. Theyre always thinking about the big gains theyll make in the next hot stock, the next big trade, or their uncles new restaurant business.
They dont give a thought to how much they can lose if things dont work out as planned...if the best-case scenario doesnt play out. And the best-case scenario usually doesnt play out. Since the novice investor never plans for this situation, he gets killed.
When presented with a potential investment, the great investor reflexively asks early in the discussion, How much can I lose?
The stories of Warren Buffett and Paul Tudor Jones can drive this point home.
Warren Buffett is one of the greatest investors in history. He used his ability to analyze investments to build a huge fortune.
When asked what his secret is, he doesnt talk about the intricacies of balance sheets or cash flow analysis. The first thing he recommends to folks who want to make money in the market is to not lose money in the market. Thats his first rule.
Buffett is obsessed with finding out how much he could potentially lose on a stake. Once hes satisfied with that, he looks at what the upside is.
Buffett is your great investor. Now take Paul Tudor Jones, an incredible trader with a net worth in the billions. His interview in the classic book Market Wizards is one of the most important things any market participant can read. Joness interview is filled with him saying how hes obsessed with not losing money...with playing defense.
Tudor is a short-term trader. But he has the same core belief system as Buffett. Tudor says his most important rule of trading is to play great defense, not offense. Tudor always focuses on the risk involved in any move he makes in the market. Once he determines the risk, he then considers the upside.
If a new investor were to tape Buffetts quote in a place where hed see it every day and reflexively ask himself, How much can I lose? before investing a penny in anything, hed be worlds ahead of most people out there. Hed set himself up for a lifetime of wealth. By focusing on the downside first, the upside takes care of itself.
Regards,
Brian Hunt
Editors Note: In tomorrows edition, we conclude build your own financial empire week with three key principles to help you survive and thrive no matter what governments and financial markets throw at you.
Casey Researchs flagship service The Casey Report is dedicated to helping subscribers build a lifetime of crisis-proof wealth. Led by multimillionaire speculator and New York Times best-selling author Doug Casey, The Casey Report is one of the worlds most respected investment advisories. Right now, you can take a risk-free trial to find out if The Casey Report is for you. Click here to get started.
The article Four Key Wealth Principles for Building Your Personal Financial Empire was originally published at caseyresearch.com.
Four Key Wealth Principles for Building Your Personal Financial Empire (Brian Hunt)
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