The Forex Men: décembre 2015

jeudi 31 décembre 2015

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Foreign currency symbols | currency symbols

Currencies have their own symbols that distinguish one from another. In Forex, the price of a currency pair is simply the value of one currency against the value of another. A currency pair includes the "name" for both currencies, separated by a "/". The "name" is a three letter acronym. The first two letters, in most cases, identify the country, while the last letter denotes the unit of currency for that country.
For example,
USD = United States Dollar
GBP = Great Britain Pound
JPY = Japanese Yen
CAD = Canadian Dollar
CHF = Confederatio Helvetica (Latin for Swiss Confederation) Franc
NZD = New Zealand Dollar
AUD = Australian Dollar
NOK = Norwegian Krona
SEK = Swedish Krona
Since the European Euro has no specific country attached to it, it goes simply by the acronym EUR.
By combining one currency, EUR, with another USD, you create a currency pair EUR/USD.

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Foreign currency symbols | currency symbols

[text] Puerto Rico to Default on $37 Million of Payments - Bloomberg Business

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"Puerto Rico*will default on about $37 million in bond payments due Jan. 1 and divert revenue to make others, escalating a conflict with investors as Governor*Alejandro Garcia Padilla*seeks to restructure a $70 billion debt burden. "

[text] Puerto Rico to Default on $37 Million of Payments - Bloomberg Business

[text] The Extremely High Q Ratio Suggests the Market is in for a Crash - Pensions & Investments

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"Monetary policy has proven to be very effective over the past seven years in elevating asset markets. However, its effect has been limited to the price of assets (the “title” to existing capital), but not the price of new capital. This differential is depicted in the Q ratio, where one can think of the numerator as representing the aggregate price of the stock market and the denominator as the aggregate book value. The higher the ratio, the further the stock market is priced relative to the reality of the underlying capital, and the greater the implied return on that aggregate capital above the average aggregate cost of capital. This ratio has always had its breaking point, much to the frustration of interventionist monetary policy, as the numerator ultimately crashes back to the denominator, rather than the denominator catching up to the numerator (a fact that Keynesians from Paul Krugman to James Tobin himself have considered a central puzzle of economics). Indeed, the continued deviation of this ratio from its long run historical average is something that both economic history and, best of all, economic logic dictate as unsustainable.

The question becomes how deviations and extremes in the Q ratio are ultimately corrected. The short answer is: they are corrected via the numerator, i.e., through corrections in the aggregate stock market value. The further the Q ratio has deviated from its long run historical average, simply put, the further the stock market has to fall to correct that deviation (this is what the market's homeostatic process does so predictably well)."

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[text] The Extremely High Q Ratio Suggests the Market is in for a Crash - Pensions & Investments

[text] The Case for the Bottom Being in on Lumber -- and Why it Thus Might be a Buying Opportunity | EconMatters

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"The play is relatively straight forward as there is 4 month overhead resistance at $270 per mbf on the charts and a breakout above this level with a buy stop letting buyers take you into the trade is one way to play this projected rise in lumber prices for 2016. I would put my protective stop at $255 per mbf if I entered on the breakout of the $270 resistance level. My initial target would be $310 per mbf for a 2.67:1 Reward/Risk profile for the trade. I would judge the price action from there and the overall market sentiment with the idea of letting it ride from this initial profit target."

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[text] The Case for the Bottom Being in on Lumber -- and Why it Thus Might be a Buying Opportunity | EconMatters

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mercredi 30 décembre 2015

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Dominican Repub. holds rate, sees inflation around target

The central bank of the Dominican Republic left its monetary policy interest rate steady at 5.0 percent, saying it expects inflation to gradually converge toward the middle of its target range in 2016 after remaining around its lower limit by the end of this year.
The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (CRBBB), which cut its rate by 125 basis points from April through June, added that the country's external accounts continue to improve in an environment of low oil prices, a good performance of tourism, remittances and exports.
By end-2015, the central bank expects a current account deficit of around 2.0 percent of Gross Domestic Product and remain around that level next year.
The state's primary fiscal surplus is also forecast to be maintained next year, with the positive outcome of both external and fiscal accounts making it easer to accumulate reserves and keep the foreign exchange market relatively stable, the CRBBB said.
The central bank targets inflation of 4.0 percent, plus/minus 1 percentage points, and in November headline inflation rose to 1.54 percent from 1.23 percent in October. In 2014 the current account deficit narrowed to 3.1 percent of GDP from 3.5 percent in 2013.
The Dominican peso has been slowly depreciating against the U.S. dollar since 2007 and was quoted at 45.53 today, down 2.7 percent this year.
"Domestically, economic activity continues to grow above its potential," the central bank said, adding that the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) forecast for growth of 6.5 to 7.0 percent for this year will be met, and growth in the financial sector, private sector loans in local currency were showing double-digit growth, outpacing nominal GDP growth.
In the third quarter of this year, GDP of the Dominican Republic, located east of Haiti in the Caribbean, expanded by an annual 7.1 percent, up from 6.4 percent in the second quarter.
The central bank said the increase in the federal funds rate by the U.S. Federal Reserve should contribute to increasing international interest rates and keep the appreciation of the U.S. dollar.

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Dominican Repub. holds rate, sees inflation around target

The Best Tax Haven for Americans Today (International Man)

Originally Published by Casey Research

Reaching the opportunities that lie beyond the borders of your home country is seldom simple, but it can be worth the effort. In fact, moving at least part of your financial life away from your home government and its eagerness to share in what you’re accumulating is one of the most liberating steps you’ll ever take.

Depending on what you do for a living, you may be able to take your personal earning power to friendlier shores, along with the earning power of your nest egg. This can mean a dramatically improved lifestyle, since less of your income - from running a business, for instance - is lost to taxing authorities and more is left for you to spend or save as you please.

High earners in Canada, Europe, and parts of Asia face tax rates of 50% or even 60%. By moving to a jurisdiction with a lower tax rate - say, 10% - they could rescue a big chunk of income from the tax collector. For a $250,000 earner, that drop in tax rates would free up an additional $100,000 annually. That’s an 80% increase in after-tax income.

For most residents of the modern world, making such a jump is possible only if it won’t interfere with earning the income they are trying to protect. That’s why so many of the people who’ve made their way to far-flung destinations to lessen their tax burden (and enjoy a more pleasant life) are investors or individuals who work in do-it-anywhere fields such as software development, investment management, and Internet-based businesses.

For some, it’s as straightforward as hopping on a plane and working from where the plane lands. But not if you’re an American.

American (Tax) Exceptionalism

U.S. citizens and permanent residents have only limited opportunities for fleeing the tax collector. Their homeland is the only one in the world - besides the tiny, impoverished African country of Eritrea - that taxes its nonresident citizens on their income, regardless of where they earn it.

For this reason, an American who moves to a zero-tax jurisdiction like the Bahamas, for example, still pays a U.S. tax bill. A Canadian expat working in the Bahamas would have no income tax bill at all.

Enforcement activity makes the burden even worse. The U.S. government puts immense pressure on foreign banks and their governments to help ensure that no dollar of any American’s income escapes the notice of the IRS. To avoid the cost of demonstrating detailed compliance with the regulations forced on any bank that wants access to U.S. financial markets, most foreign banks simply show U.S. citizens the “unwelcome mat.”

Americans are in the uniquely unfavorable position of living under the world’s most sweeping tax regime and suffering a government that can effectively enforce that regime anywhere in the world. For many, U.S. tax rules are a tight and choking leash. It’s no wonder that record numbers of Americans are giving up their citizenship to seek freedom elsewhere.

But breaking the tax leash by renouncing U.S. citizenship is a big step, and it can carry a high price. You may have to pay a hefty “exit tax” on the way out the door. And you can’t be sure that renunciation won’t make visiting the U.S. difficult, which rules it out for most people with friends or extensive family in the States.

The Florida Option

For years, individual U.S. states have exploited tax fatigue to attract those looking to save a few dollars by moving to a place that doesn’t treat them like a milk cow. The offer is simple: at no more than modest cost or inconvenience, you can move to our state and protect up to 10% or more of your income from the tax collector. The income-tax-free states of Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming all make that offer. Nevada has drawn thousands of Californians to Incline Village, Nevada’s interstate tax haven on Lake Tahoe.

Even more conspicuous is Florida, with zero state income tax plus property tax rates that decline with the age of the owner. For decades, it has attracted wealthy retirees who grew their nest eggs in New York, New Jersey, or other high-tax states and want to enjoy their money in a sunnier climate.

Florida presented what was until recently the best balance of lower taxes and a tropical lifestyle available to Americans who didn’t want to give up their citizenship.

But your alternatives just got better. There is a new option that out-Floridas Florida, and by a big margin.

More than the “Better Florida”

It’s an upside-down situation. Being liable for tax on their worldwide income, Americans are effectively barred from accepting any low-tax offer made by an independent foreign country…but they’re free to accept any low-tax offer made by U.S. jurisdictions.

There is a U.S. jurisdiction that has an advantage few competitors can hope to match.

Specifically, those who qualify are eligible for:

Zero tax rate on capital gains and certain interest and dividends earned by individuals, and

Single-digit tax rates on qualifying service income earned by corporations operating in the jurisdiction.

It’s pretty much the only place in the world where Americans can obtain such tax benefits without renouncing their citizenship.

When we learned of this new option, we were excited but skeptical. It sounded just too good to be true…or one of those things whose complexity requires paying an army of lawyers. However, our investigation found that the tax advantages of this program are real and that for many Americans, including individuals operating on a modest scale, they are a huge opportunity.

That’s exactly why we we’ve put in hundreds of hours of research to put together the definitive comprehensive guidebook to these incredible tax advantages: How to Legally Remove Yourself from the U.S. Tax Code, Without Leaving America.

We believe this guidebook is so important, especially right now, that we’ve arranged a way for you to get a free copy for a limited time.

We’ve circulated the guidebook among top attorneys and accountants to get their comments and ensure the information is as accurate and straightforward as possible. In fact, one prominent law office lent the report its seal of approval after thoroughly reviewing it.

It’s an A-Z guide with information you won’t find anywhere else. And, for a limited time, we’re giving it away for free. Click here to obtain your free copy today.

The article The Best Tax Haven for Americans Today was originally published at internationalman.com.

View the Casey Research Guide to Crisis Investing on InformedTrades

The Best Tax Haven for Americans Today (International Man)

Moldova maintains rate as past hikes still taking effect

Moldova's central bank left its main policy rates unchanged, including the rate on short-term operations at 19.50 percent, saying past policy measures are still working their way through the economy and will continue to have further impact on inflation.
The National Bank of Moldova (NBM), which has raised its key rate by 1300 basis points this year, largely repeated its view from November, including the statement that today's decision was aimed at anchoring inflation expectations and the depreciation of the leu currency was the main risk to inflation.
Moldova's inflation rate rose to 13.5 percent in November from 13.2 percent in October and the central bank expects persistent inflationary pressures in following quarters due to the impact of unfavorable weather on agriculture and the comparison with low inflation last year.
The NBM confirmed that it expects inflation to temporarily exceed its upper target limit of 6.5 percent. The central bank targets inflation at 5.0 percent, plus/minus 1.5 percentage points.
Moldova, a former Soviet state located between Romania and Ukraine, has seen its leu currency depreciate since mid-20111 and it fell sharply in January this year. After a brief rebound in April and May, and then further depreciation, it has been slowly been firming since early October. The central bank raised rates from December through August.
Today the leu was trading at 19.7 to the U.S. dollar, down almost 21 percent this year.
To help the country's interbank money market, the central bank said it would continue to sterilize excess liquidity, offering banks liquidity through 14-day repo operations at a fixed rate equal to the base rate plus 0.25 percentage points.

The National Bank of Moldova issued the following statement:

"Within the meeting of the 30 December 2015, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Moldova adopted the following decision by unanimous vote:

1. To maintain the base rate applied on main short-term monetary policy operations at the current level of 19.5 percent annually;
2. To maintain the interest rates:
- on overnight loans at the current level of 22.5 percent annually;
- on overnight deposits at the current level of 16.5 percent annually.
The annual inflation rate reached in November 2015 the level of 13.5 percent, increasing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, mainly due to the impact from food prices and core inflation. The contribution from food prices increased up to the level of 5.0 percentage points, while that of core inflation maintained the level of 4.8 percentage points. At the same time, the contribution from regulated prices was slightly lower compared to the previous month (3.3 percentage points).
The annual rate of core inflation1 constituted in November 14.1 percent, being similar to that of the previous month.
Recent statistics data show that the economic growth rate turned negative in the third quarter of 2015, decreasing by 3.7 percent compared to the same period of last year. The negative dynamics of GDP was determined by the accentuated decease in households' consumption of 5.2 percent compared to the third quarter of 2014, amid the stagnation of their disposable income in real terms. Imports of goods and services decreased by 4.4 percent during the reporting period due to the decrease in domestic demand, while exports were slightly lower by 0.2 percent compared to the third quarter of 2014. At the same time, investments generated in the third quarter of 2015 a negative impact on the economic activity of 1.2 percentage points, of which gross fixed capital formation decreased by 4.8 percent. By categories of resources, the negative dynamics of GDP was mainly determined by the accentuated decrease of the gross value added in agriculture. Thus, in the third quarter of 2015, agriculture recorded a decline of 17.4 percent compared to the corresponding period of 2014. Negative evolutions, but which generated a less significant impact, were recorded in the energy industry, construction and trade - 5.1, 1.8 and 2.3 percent, respectively.
Transport of goods decreased by 17.6 percent during January - November 2015, compared to the same period of the previous year, while the industrial output increased by 3.5 percent.
In the first ten months of 2015, exports and imports decreased by 16.1 and 24.1 percent respectively, compared to the same period of the previous year.
In terms of consumer demand, the annual average real wage growth in the economy in October 2015 was minus 6.4 percent, by 4.1 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. Money transfers to individuals through the banks of the Republic of Moldova fell by 31.5 percent in January-November 2015 and by 15.0 percent in November 2015 compared with the same period of 2014.
In November 2015, the decrease in the balance of credits granted to the economy mitigated in annual terms, recording a level of minus 5.2 percent (compared to 13.3 percent in October 2015), while the balance of deposits recorded a decrease of 12.2 percent compared to November 2014.
In November 2015, the average interest rates applied by banks to loans and deposits in national currency recorded an upward trend. Thus, the average annual interest rate on the loan portfolio in national currency increased by 0.46 percentage points compared to the previous month, constituting 13.35 percent. The average interest rate for deposits in MDL increased by 0.47 percentage points compared to October, registering a level of 13.71 percent.
The monetary policy continues to be affected by the complexity of risk balance, with the persistence of inflationary risks. The external risks to inflation remained significant, given the weak economic activity of the euro area countries and the recession deepening in the Russian Federation - the main external trade partners of the Republic of Moldova. The external risks are propagated through the remittances channel in favour of population and the external trade, leading to lower foreign currency income of population and domestic exporters in the short term, with implications for further inflation development. The escalation of geopolitical tension in the region could cause additional inflationary pressures.
The risks to inflation associated mainly to the depreciation of the national currency since the beginning of this year, which will subsequently determine in the future periods, through the prices of imported goods and tariffs of regulated services, the increase in exercise duties on some categories of goods and later by second-round effects, the IPC to maintain temporarily the upper limit of the variation range of ± 1.5 percentage point from the inflation target of 5.0 percent. Inflationary pressures are expected to be persistent in the following quarters, including due to the unfavourable agri-meteorological conditions of this year and the low base of comparison in the previous year.
Against this background, within the meeting held on 30 December 2015, the members of the Executive Board of the NBM decided by unanimous vote to maintain the policy rate at the level of 19.5 percent annually. The decision of the Executive Board of the NBM is based on the fact that the monetary policy measures adopted by the NBM at the beginning of the year until now are to be transposed into the national economy, including by influencing interest rates on loans and deposits in national currency, thus exerting further effects on inflation development.
The decisions of the Executive Board of 30 December 2015 are aimed at anchoring inflation expectations in the context of restoring and maintaining the inflation rate close to the target of 5.0 percent over the medium-term, with a possible deviation of ± 1.5 percentage points.
In order to support the proper functioning of the interbank money market, the NBM will continue to manage firmly the liquidity excess through sterilization operations, according to the announced schedule.
National Bank will continue to offer banks liquidity, according to the schedule announced for 2016, through REPO operations with the term of 14 days, at a fixed rate equal to the base rate of the National Bank plus a margin of 0.25 points percentage.
NBM will further monitor and anticipate the domestic and international economic environment developments, including household consumption dynamics, remittances and changing foreign trade conditions, so that by the flexibility of operational framework specific for the inflation targeting strategy to ensure price stability in the medium term.
The next meeting of the Executive Board of the NBM on monetary policy will take place on 28 January 2016, according to the announced schedule."
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Moldova maintains rate as past hikes still taking effect

Sri Lanka holds rates but raises SRR to restrain inflation

Sri Lanka's central bank left its key interest rates steady but raised the Statutory Reserve Ratio (SRR) on all rupee deposits by 150 basis points to 7.50 percent "to restrain the build-up of demand-side pressures on inflation to ensure continued monetary and price stability."
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka, which cut its rate by 50 basis points in April, added that if the "current excess liquidity in the domestic money market continues to remain high for an extended period, it could lead to an undue expansion in monetary aggregates, fueling future inflation in the economy."
The hike in SRR was largely unexpected as most economists had expected the central bank to raise its key rates in order to shore up the rupee which has fallen almost 7 percent since the central bank allowed it to float on Sept. 3, and has dropped almost 9 percent this year.
Today it was quoted at 144 to the U.S. dollar, steady after the central bank's announcement.
The central bank noted the depreciation in the rupee, which it said reflected domestic and global developments, and said the view of its monetary board was that "external sector policies already implemented need to be further supported by some monetary policy tightening."
The central bank's key rate, the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) were maintained at 6.0 and 7.50 percent, respectively.
Sri Lanka's headline inflation rate rose to 3.1 percent in November from 1.7 percent in October while core inflation of 4.3 percent in November, slightly down from 4.4 percent in October, also suggested "rising underlying inflationary pressures in the economy."
Earlier this month the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the economic outlook for Sri Lanka remained uncertain with risks tilted to the downside, noting the boost in income from large increase in wages and salaries in the revised 2015 budget and lower administered prices. Together with a reduction in import taxes on vehicles, this has fed through to a sharp rise in imports, a deterioration the non-oil current account balance, rising core inflation and weak public finance.
It added that external risks had risen in line with the weaker global growth prospects and tighter global financial conditions that may rebalance further when the U.S. Federal Reserve raises rates.
The IMF forecast that headline inflation would average 3.3 percent this year, down from 6.9 percent last year, and then fall further to 1.1 percent in 2016 while core inflation would end this year at 1.2 percent this year before rising to 5.0 percent by the end of next year and rise further to 5.4 percent by end-2017.

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka issued the following statement:

"The year-on-year growth of broad money (M2b) continued to expand at a high rate of 17.0 per cent in October 2015 compared to 16.0 per cent recorded in the previous month, driven by the expansion of credit extended to both private and public sectors by the banking system. Amongst contributory factors, credit granted to the private sector by commercial banks increased by 26.3 per cent, year-on-year, compared to 22.2 per cent in the previous month. Tentative data for November 2015 also shows that credit flows to the private sector continue to expand at a high rate. Meanwhile, excess liquidity in the domestic money market continues to remain high, fuelling monetary expansion.

Meanwhile, headline inflation, as measured by the Colombo Consumers’ Price Index (CCPI, 2006/2007=100), increased to 3.1 per cent, on a year-on-year basis, in November 2015 from 1.7 per cent in October 2015. On an annual average basis, headline inflation increased to 0.9 per cent in November 2015 compared to 0.7 per cent in the previous month. Following a similar trend, headline inflation based on the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI, 2013=100) also increased to 4.8 per cent, on a year-on-year basis, in November 2015 from 3.0 per cent in October 2015. Reflecting the firming up of aggregate demand conditions in the economy, the CCPI-based core inflation rate registered 4.3 per cent, on a year-on-year basis, in November 2015 vs. 4.4 per cent in the previous month and compared to its recent low of 0.8 per cent in February 2015. Meanwhile, core inflation measures, based on NCPI, also suggest rising underlying inflationary pressures in the economy.

On the external front, the decline in expenditure on imports in October 2015 was greater than the decline in earnings from exports, narrowing the deficit in the trade account by 6.8 per cent, on a year-on-year basis, to US dollars 791 million. However, on a cumulative basis, the trade deficit during the first ten months of the year widened by 2.5 per cent to US dollars 6,936 million reflecting the continued increase in non-oil imports. Meanwhile, earnings from tourism during the first eleven months of 2015 are estimated to have grown by 18.1 per cent, while workers’ remittances grew marginally by 0.8 per cent in the first eleven months of the year. Gross official reserves, which stood at US dollars 6.5 billion at end October 2015, are estimated to have increased to around US dollars 7.3 billion by end November 2015. Reflecting domestic and global developments, the Sri Lanka rupee has depreciated by 8.8 per cent against the US dollar so far in 2015. Notwithstanding these developments, the Monetary Board is of the view that external sector policies already implemented need to be further supported by some monetary policy tightening.

If the current excess liquidity in the domestic money market continues to remain high for an extended period, it could lead to an undue expansion in monetary aggregates, fuelling future inflation in the economy. In that respect, the Monetary Board is of the view that it is appropriate to restrain the build-up of demand-side pressure on inflation to ensure continued monetary and price stability.

Accordingly, the Monetary Board decided, at its meeting held on 30 December 2015, to raise the Statutory Reserve Ratio (SRR) applicable to all rupee deposit liabilities of commercial banks by 1.50 percentage points to 7.50 per cent to be effective from the reserve week commencing 16 January 2016. Furthermore, the Monetary Board decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank unchanged at their current levels of 6.00 per cent and 7.50 per cent, respectively. "

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Sri Lanka holds rates but raises SRR to restrain inflation

Stopped Out of EURUSD Position while USDJPY in Tight Range at Key Level

Unfortunately I did get stopped out of my recent short EURUSD trade. Hindsight is 20/20, but clearly I should have waited for a 50% retracement before entering this position. In the chart below, I entered at the black line with my stop at the the red line and my target set at the orange line.

Meanwhile, USDJPY continues to hover at a major confluence level near 120.50 (red line in the chart below). In addition to being a significant support level, this is also where the 200 EMA is. I'm tempted to buy here, but will wait until next week to see if we are still at this level or if situation has changed materially.

Stopped Out of EURUSD Position while USDJPY in Tight Range at Key Level

[text] China suspends forex business for some foreign banks until the end of March | Reuters

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"China's central bank has suspended at least three foreign banks from conducting some foreign exchange business until the end of March, three sources who had seen the suspension notices told Reuters on Wednesday.Included among the suspended services are liquidation of spot positions for clients and some other activities related to cross-border, onshore and offshore businesses, the sources said.The sources, speaking on condition that the banks were not named, said the notices sent to the affected foreign banks by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) gave no reason for the suspension."

[text] China suspends forex business for some foreign banks until the end of March | Reuters

[text] S&P 500 by Sector - Business Insider

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"In the S&P 500, energy stocks are down 23% this year, making it by far the worst-performing sector of 2015. Meanwhile, consumer discretionary stocks are up 9.1%, making it the best-performing sector." Hail the consumer!" Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg extolled."

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[text] S&P 500 by Sector - Business Insider

[text] The flow of money out of investment-grade bonds is starting to increase - Business Insider

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"Around $3.5 billion (£2.35 billion) was withdrawn from investment-grade bond funds last week, according to BAML analysts led by Michael Hartnett. That's the most in 17 weeks and the worst showing since August."

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[text] The flow of money out of investment-grade bonds is starting to increase - Business Insider

mardi 29 décembre 2015

Kyrgyzstan holds rate, to continue with FX interventions

Kyrgyzstan's central bank left its policy rate steady at 10.0 percent, saying it will continue to monitor the foreign exchange market and "continue forex interventions to smoothen large exchange rate fluctuations."
The National Bank of they Kyrgyz Republic, which has cut its rate by a net 50 basis points this year after both hiking and cutting the rate, said future inflation will be determined by the foreign exchange market, foreign trade, the state budget and inflation expectations.
The central bank's reference to intervention in the foreign exchange market in its statement from Dec. 28 is new compared with its statement from late October, just as the reference to inflation expectations is new.
The Kyrgyzstani som started falling sharply in September but has been stable this month. The som was quoted at 75.8 to the U.S. dollar, largely unchanged from Nov. 28 but down 18 percent from Aug. 31 and down 22.3 percent since the start of this year.
Kyrgyzstan's inflation rate decelerated to 3.0 percent in December from 3.8 percent in November from 4.9 percent in October, below the central bank's target of 5-7 percent.
Earlier this month the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the central bank's monetary policy will remain on a tightening bias to contain inflation pressures along with continuing to pursue a flexible exchange rate policy to safeguard foreign exchange reserves and preserve competitiveness, with interventions limited to smoothing short-term fluctuations.
The economy of Kyrgyzstan, located between China to the south and Kazakhstan to the north, has been hit by slower global growth, falling gold prices, remittances and currency depreciations in the region.
Despite lower production at the Kumtor gold mine, the central bank said growth remains positive, noting overall growth of 3.6 percent in the January to November period, down from 4.0 percent in the same 2014 period. Excluding output from Kumtor, growth in the 11 months was 3.8 percent compared with growth of 4.8 percent in the same 2014 period.
The IMF forecasts total growth this year of 2.4 percent, or 3.4 percent in non-gold Gross Domestic Product, down from 2014's growth rates of 3.6 percent and 4.6, respectively. In 2016 total growth is seen at 3.6 percent, with non-gold output up by 3.2 percent.
Inflation is forecast to average 7.4 percent this year, rising to 8.9 percent in 2016 before easing to 6.9 percent in 2017.
The country's gross international reserves are estimated by the IMF to decline to US$1.770 billion this year from $1.856 billion in 2014 and then decline further to $1.586 billion in 2016 before rising to $1.776 billion in 2017.

The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic issued the following statement:

"On December 28, 2015, the Board of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic decided to keep the monetary policy rate at 10.00 percent.
Despite the ongoing recession and the slowdown in economic activity in the countries - main trading partners, the Kyrgyz Republic still has positive growth, in spite of slight slowdown, due to the decrease of production at the “Kumtor” gold-mining company. Economic growth in January-November of 2015 was 3.6 percent, without “Kumtor” the real GDP growth was 3.8 percent (in January-November 2014 the real growth was 4.0 percent, without “Kumtor” 4.8 percent).
In December annual inflation rate was 3.0 percent, it has declined by 0.8 from November, which was 3.8 percent. It was mainly due to a decline in domestic prices for bakery and meat products as well as petroleum products.
Further inflation dynamics will be determined by the situation in the foreign exchange market, dynamics of foreign trade relations within the EEU, the level of evenness of the state budget spendings and inflation expectations.
The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic will continue to monitor the situation at the domestic foreign exchange market and continue forex interventions to smoothen large exchange rate fluctuations.
The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic will continue to monitor the situation in the national economy and will take appropriate measures of monetary policy consistent with statutory mandate.
The monetary policy will be aimed at achieving and maintaining the inflation rate at the level of 5-7 percent in the medium term, which is determined by the Main monetary policy guidelines of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic for the medium term.
The next meeting of the Board of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic on the monetary policy rate scheduled for February 29, 2016. "
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Kyrgyzstan holds rate, to continue with FX interventions

ARE YOU A SLAVE? DEBT SLAVE THAT IS

Reasons You Will Never Get Out of Debt-Kiplinger

This is a good article and should be taken notice of because if you are in debt more than you can handle you are only making the rich richer because that's who owns your debt.

How's it feel being owned?

ARE YOU A SLAVE? DEBT SLAVE THAT IS

[text] The Crude Oil Export Ban--What, Me Worry About Peak Oil? - Forbes

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"The 1975 Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) that banned crude oil export was the closest thing to an energy policy that the United States has ever had.*The law was passed after the price of oil increased*in one month (January 1974) from $21 to $51 per barrel (2015 dollars) because of*the Arab Oil Embargo. The EPCA*not only banned the export of crude oil but also established the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Both measures were intended to*keep more oil*at home in order to make the U.S.*less dependent on imported oil. A 55 mile-per-hour national speed limit was established to*force conservation, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) was founded to better monitor and predict global oil supply and demand trends. Above all, the export ban acknowledged that declining domestic supply and increased imports had made the country vulnerable to economic disruption. Its repeal last week suggests*that there is no longer any risk associated with*dependence on foreign oil."

[text] The Crude Oil Export Ban--What, Me Worry About Peak Oil? - Forbes

Muscle Mass Building Strategies

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lundi 28 décembre 2015

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Elliott Wave beginners

Hi Everyone, Im seeing quite a few Elliott beginners on here as Ive just began trading after a long layoff and if anybody would like to check out my website tradethewave.com you're welcome to as it explains the intricate details of how I identify the end of a 4 and the beginning of a 5 wave, Im not plugging for a subscription as Ive already got plenty but it took me a long time to develop the strategy, hope this helps :tiphat:

Elliott Wave beginners

The many ways i have been scammed

When i started out in the forex world i saw the great potential of making money. and i though forex trading was easy. i found out how difficult trading can be, when i found myself losing loads of money on a daily basis.

The many ways i have been scammed

[text] Warren Buffet: Value Investing is Boring But it Really Works | BusinessInsider

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"In May 1984, Warren Buffett laid out everything you need to know about his investing philosophy.In a speech at Columbia Business School, later adapted into an essay, Buffett introduced what he called, "The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville."Buffett writes:"The common intellectual theme of the investors from Graham-and-Doddsville is this: they search for discrepancies between the*value*of a business and the*price*of small pieces of that business in that market."And that's pretty much it: Buffett doesn't think about buying a stock; he thinks about buying a business.*"

[text] Warren Buffet: Value Investing is Boring But it Really Works | BusinessInsider

Commercial Library (SHARE)

Hi everybody
Currently, I am in need of your help in problem commercial purposes me.

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2016 Central Bank Calendar

Following is the 2016 calendar for meetings by central bank committees that decide monetary policy.
The table includes scheduled meetings for more than 35 of the world's central banks. In the event that meetings by monetary policy committees take place over several days, the date listed below is for the final day of the meetings when decisions are normally announced.
The calendar is updated regularly to reflect the latest information as some central banks have yet to release their meeting schedule for 2016. Other central banks only release tentative schedules and then finalize their calendar as the meeting nears.
The latest version of the calendar can always be accessed by clicking here.
Work is underway to expand the number of central banks covered, including expanding the existing inflation targets table, and global interest rates table. You may replicate the table in part or in full only if you link to this page.

2016 Global Central Bank Calendar

JANUARY 7-Jan RON Romania National Bank of Romania 12-Jan RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia 14-Jan KRW South Korea Bank of Korea 14-Jan GBP United Kingdom Bank of England 14-Jan PLN Poland National Bank of Poland 14-Jan PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru 14-Jan CLP Chile Central Bank of Chile 15-Jan MZN Mozambique Bank of Mozambique 19-Jan TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey 20-Jan CAD Canada Bank of Canada 20-Jan BRL Brazil Central Bank of Brazil 21-Jan MYR Malaysia Central Bank of Malaysia 21-Jan EUR Euro area European Central Bank 25-Jan GHS Ghana Bank of Ghana 25-Jan ILS Israel Bank of Israel 25-Jan AOA Angola Bank of Angola 26-Jan HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary 27-Jan USD United States Federal Reserve 28-Jan NZD New Zealand Reserve Bank of New Zealand 28-Jan ZAR South Africa South African Reserve Bank 28-Jan UAH Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine 28-Jan MDL Moldova National Bank of Moldova 29-Jan JPY Japan Bank of Japan 29-Jan RUB Russia Bank of Russia 29-Jan COP Colombia Central Bank of Colombia 29-Jan TTD Trinidad and Tobago Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago
FEBRUARY 2-Feb AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia 2-Feb INR India Reserve Bank of India 3-Feb THB Thailand Bank of Thailand 3-Feb PLN Poland National Bank of Poland 3-Feb GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia 4-Feb CZK Czech Republic Czech National Bank 4-Feb GBP United Kingdom Bank of England 4-Feb MXN Mexico Banco de Mexico 5-Feb RON Romania National Bank of Romania 10-Feb ISK Iceland Central Bank of Iceland 10-Feb NAD Namibia Bank of Namibia 11-Feb PHP Philippines Central Bank of Philippines 11-Feb SEK Sweden The Riksbank 11-Feb CLP Chile Central Bank of Chile 11-Feb PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru 11-Feb RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia 12-Feb UAH Uganda Bank of Uganda 16-Feb KRW South Korea Bank of Korea 17-Feb MUR Mauritius Bank of Mauritius 19-Feb COP Colombia Central Bank of Colombia 22-Feb ILS Israel Bank of Israel 23-Feb TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey 23-Feb HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary MARCH 1-Mar AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia 2-Mar BRL Brazil Central Bank of Brazil 3-Mar UAH Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine 9-Mar MYR Malaysia Central Bank of Malaysia 9-Mar CAD Canada Bank of Canada 9-Mar PLN Poland National Bank of Poland 9-Mar GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia 10-Mar NZD New Zealand Reserve Bank of New Zealand 10-Mar KRW South Korea Bank of Korea 10-Mar EUR Euro area European Central Bank 10-Mar PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru 15-Mar JPY Japan Bank of Japan 16-Mar ISK Iceland Central Bank of Iceland 16-Mar USD United States Federal Reserve 17-Mar GBP United Kingdom Bank of England 17-Mar NOK Norway Norges Bank 17-Mar RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia 17-Mar CHF Switzerland Swiss National Bank 17-Mar ZAR South Africa South African Reserve Bank 17-Mar CLP Chile Central Bank of Chile 18-Mar RUB Russia Bank of Russia 18-Mar MXN Mexico Banco de Mexico 22-Mar HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary 22-Mar MAD Morocco Bank of Morocco 23-Mar THB Thailand Bank of Thailand 23-Mar PHP Philippines Central Bank of Philippines 24-Mar TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey 28-Mar ILS Israel Bank of Israel 31-Mar CZK Czech Republic Czech National Bank 31-Mar MDL Moldova National Bank of Moldova APRIL 5-Apr AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia 6-Apr PLN Poland National Bank of Poland 7-Apr RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia 12-Apr CLP Chile Central Bank of Chile 13-Apr CAD Canada Bank of Canada 14-Apr GBP United Kingdom Bank of England 14-Apr PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru 15-Apr UAH Uganda Bank of Uganda 19-Apr KRW South Korea Bank of Korea 20-Apr TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey 21-Apr SEK Sweden The Riksbank 21-Apr EUR Euro area European Central Bank 21-Apr UAH Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine 25-Apr ILS Israel Bank of Israel 26-Apr HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary 27-Apr USD United States Federal Reserve 27-Apr GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia 27-Apr BRL Brazil Central Bank of Brazil 28-Apr JPY Japan Bank of Japan 28-Apr NZD New Zealand Reserve Bank of New Zealand 28-Apr MDL Moldova National Bank of Moldova 29-Apr RUB Russia Bank of Russia MAY 3-May AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia 5-May CZK Czech Republic Czech National Bank 5-May MXN Mexico Banco de Mexico 11-May THB Thailand Bank of Thailand 11-May ISK Iceland Central Bank of Iceland 12-May PHP Philippines Central Bank of Philippines 12-May GBP United Kingdom Bank of England 12-May NOK Norway Norges Bank 12-May PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru 13-May KRW South Korea Bank of Korea 13-May PLN Poland National Bank of Poland 17-May RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia 17-May CLP Chile Central Bank of Chile 19-May MYR Malaysia Central Bank of Malaysia 19-May ZAR South Africa South African Reserve Bank 23-May ILS Israel Bank of Israel 24-May TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey 24-May HUF Hungary Magyar Nemzeti Bank 25-May CAD Canada Bank of Canada 26-May UAH Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine 26-May MDL Moldova National Bank of Moldova JUNE 1-Jun ISK Iceland Central Bank of Iceland 2-Jun EUR Euro area European Central Bank 7-Jun AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia 8-Jun BRL Brazil Central Bank of Brazil 8-Jun PLN Poland National Bank of Poland 9-Jun NZD New Zealand Reserve Bank of New Zealand 9-Jun KRW South Korea Bank of Korea 9-Jun RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia 9-Jun PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru 10-Jun RUB Russia Bank of Russia 15-Jun UAH Uganda Bank of Uganda 15-Jun USD United States Federal Reserve 15-Jun GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia 16-Jun JPY Japan Bank of Japan 16-Jun CHF Switzerland Swiss National Bank 16-Jun GBP United Kingdom Bank of England 21-Jun HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary 21-Jun TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey 21-Jun MAD Morocco Bank of Morocco 22-Jun THB Thailand Bank of Thailand 23-Jun PHP Philippines Central Bank of Philippines 23-Jun NOK Norway Norges Bank 23-Jun UAH Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine 27-Jun ILS Israel Bank of Israel 30-Jun MDL Moldova National Bank of Moldova 30-Jun CZK Czech Republic Czech National Bank 30-Jun MXN Mexico Banco de Mexico JULY 5-Jul AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia 6-Jul SEK Sweden Sveriges Riksbank 6-Jul PLN Poland National Bank of Poland 7-Jul RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia 13-Jul MYR Malaysia Central Bank of Malaysia 13-Jul CAD Canada Bank of Canada 14-Jul KRW South Korea Bank of Korea 14-Jul GBP United Kingdom Bank of England 14-Jul PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru 19-Jul TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey 20-Jul BRL Brazil Central Bank of Brazil 21-Jul EUR Euro area European Central Bank 21-Jul ZAR South Africa South African Reserve Bank 25-Jul ILS Israel Bank of Israel 26-Jul HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary 27-Jul GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia 27-Jul USD United States Federal Reserve 28-Jul UAH Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine 28-Jul MDL Moldova National Bank of Moldova 29-Jul JPY Japan Bank of Japan 29-Jul RUB Russia Bank of Russia AUGUST 2-Aug AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia 3-Aug THB Thailand Bank of Thailand 4-Aug GBP United Kingdom Bank of England 4-Aug CZK Czech Republic Czech National Bank 11-Aug NZD New Zealand Reserve Bank of New Zealand 11-Aug KRW South Korea Bank of Korea 11-Aug PHP Philippines Central Bank of Philippines 11-Aug MXN Mexico Banco de Mexico 11-Aug RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia 11-Aug PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru 23-Aug TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey 23-Aug HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary 24-Aug ISK Iceland Central Bank of Iceland 25-Aug MDL Moldova National Bank of Moldova 29-Aug ILS Israel Bank of Israel 31-Aug BRL Brazil Central Bank of Brazil SEPTEMBER 6-Sep AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia 7-Sep MYR Malaysia Central Bank of Malaysia 7-Sep PLN Poland National Bank of Poland 7-Sep SEK Sweden Sveriges Riksbank 7-Sep CAD Canada Bank of Canada 7-Sep GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia 8-Sep EUR Euro area European Central Bank 8-Sep RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia 8-Sep PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru 9-Sep KRW South Korea Bank of Korea 14-Sep THB Thailand Bank of Thailand 15-Sep CHF Switzerland Swiss National Bank 15-Sep GBP United Kingdom Bank of England 15-Sep UAH Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine 16-Sep RUB Russia Bank of Russia 20-Sep HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary 21-Sep JPY Japan Bank of Japan 21-Sep USD United States Federal Reserve 22-Sep NZD New Zealand Reserve Bank of New Zealand 22-Sep PHP Philippines Central Bank of Philippines 22-Sep NOK Norway Norges Bank 22-Sep TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey 22-Sep ZAR South Africa South African Reserve Bank 26-Sep ILS Israel Bank of Israel 27-Sep MAD Morocco Bank of Morocco 29-Sep CZK Czech Republic Czech National Bank 29-Sep MDL Moldova National Bank of Moldova 29-Sep MXN Mexico Banco de Mexico OCTOBER 4-Oct AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia 5-Oct ISK Iceland Central Bank of Iceland 5-Oct PLN Poland National Bank of Poland 13-Oct KRW South Korea Bank of Korea 13-Oct GBP United Kingdom Bank of England 13-Oct RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia 13-Oct PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru 19-Oct CAD Canada Bank of Canada 19-Oct BRL Brazil Central Bank of Brazil 20-Oct EUR Euro area European Central Bank 20-Oct TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey 23-Oct ILS Israel Bank of Israel 25-Oct HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary 26-Oct GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia 27-Oct SEK Sweden The Riksbank 27-Oct NOK Norway Norges Bank 27-Oct UAH Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine 27-Oct MDL Moldova National Bank of Moldova 28-Oct RUB Russia Bank of Russia NOVEMBER 1-Nov JPY Japan Bank of Japan 1-Nov AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia 2-Nov USD United States Federal Reserve 3-Nov GBP United Kingdom Bank of England 3-Nov CZK Czech Republic Czech National Bank 9-Nov PLN Poland National Bank of Poland 9-Nov THB Thailand Bank of Thailand 10-Nov NZD New Zealand Reserve Bank of New Zealand 10-Nov PHP Philippines Central Bank of Philippines 10-Nov RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia 10-Nov PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru 11-Nov KRW South Korea Bank of Korea 16-Nov ISK Iceland Central Bank of Iceland 17-Nov MXN Mexico Banco de Mexico 22-Nov HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary 23-Nov MYR Malaysia Central Bank of Malaysia 24-Nov TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey 24-Nov ZAR South Africa South African Reserve Bank 24-Nov MDL Moldova National Bank of Moldova 28-Nov ILS Israel Bank of Israel 30-Nov BRL Brazil Central Bank of Brazil DECEMBER 6-Dec AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia 7-Dec CAD Canada Bank of Canada 7-Dec PLN Poland National Bank of Poland 8-Dec EUR Euro area European Central Bank 8-Dec RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia 8-Dec UAH Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine 14-Dec ISK Iceland Central Bank of Iceland 14-Dec GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia 14-Dec USD United States Federal Reserve 15-Dec GBP United Kingdom Bank of England 15-Dec KRW South Korea Bank of Korea 15-Dec NOK Norway Norges Bank 15-Dec CHF Switzerland Swiss National Bank 15-Dec MXN Mexico Banco de Mexico 15-Dec PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru 16-Dec RUB Russia Bank of Russia 20-Dec JPY Japan Bank of Japan 20-Dec TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey 20-Dec HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary 20-Dec MAD Morocco Bank of Morocco 21-Dec THB Thailand Bank of Thailand 21-Dec SEK Sweden The Riksbank 22-Dec PHP Philippines Central Bank of Philippines 22-Dec CZK Czech Republic Czech National Bank 26-Dec ILS Israel Bank of Israel 29-Dec MDL Moldova National Bank of Moldova

Central Bank News makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information above at the time of publication. However, as schedules and bank policies change, we cannot guarantee its accuracy but will update the table when new information becomes available. If you have any corrections, please contact us.
You may replicate the table above in full but under the strict condition that you cite Central Bank News as the source, and if online, provide a link back to http://ift.tt/1iP0FNb

Go to Original Story

2016 Central Bank Calendar

Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (10:00 GMT)

EURUSD

The Euro consolidates within 1.0868/1.0982 range, holding in daily Ichimoku cloud, after recovery leg from 1.0801, low of 17 Dec, stalled under psychological 1.10 barrier.
Bullish daily studies favor resumption of the upleg from 1.0801, for final attack at key 1.1058/55 barrier, former recovery top of 15 Dec, reinforced by daily Ichimoku cloud top and 100SMA. Break here is needed to signal resumption of larger recovery from 1.0519, low of 03 Dec and confirm trough at 1.0801.
Near-term studies are bullishly aligned, with correction on overbought slow Stochastic, expected to precede fresh attacks at near-term range top.
Daily Tenkan-sen offers initial support at 1.0929, near Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0868/1.0977 upleg, which is expected to ideally contain dips.
However, extension of corrective pullback should be contained above daily cloud base at 1.0888, to keep near-term bulls in play.
Otherwise, reversal under daily cloud and rising daily 20SMA, currently at 1.0875, will weaken the structure and expose range’s lower boundary for test.

Res: 1.0982; 1.1009; 1.1042; 1.1058
Sup: 1.0929; 1.0909; 1.0888; 1.0875

GBPUSD

Cable entered near-term consolidation under 1.4943 high, where recovery rally from fresh eight-month low at 1.4803, was capped by initial barrier, falling daily 10 SMA.
Daily slow Stochastic is heading north, on reversal from oversold territory and sees room for further upside extension. However, firmly bearish daily studies, suggest limited upside action, before bears resume for clear break below cracked weekly channel support, currently at 1.4834, for final push towards key med-term support at 1.4563, annual low, posted on 14 Apr.
Bullishly aligned near-term studies see potential for attempts above 10SMA barrier, towards next significant levels at 1.4969, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5237/1.4803 downleg, reinforced by 4-hour Ichimoku cloud base and psychological 1.50 barrier, where extended rallies should be limited.
Only close above falling daily 20SMA, currently at 1.5016, would sideline bears and signal stronger correction.

Res: 1.4943; 1.4969; 1.5000; 1.5020
Sup: 1.4931, 1.4889; 1.4856; 1.4836

USDJPY

The dollar bounces from fresh low at 120.05, posted today, on extension of steep fall from 123.53, 18 Dec peak.
Last Friday’s fall left long bearish candle and closed below former low of 14 Dec at 120.33, signals fresh extension of bear-leg from 123.53.
Psychological 120 support holds for now, with further recovery action signaled by oversold daily slow Stochastic. Initial barrier lies at 120.89, daily Ichimoku cloud base and 23.6% of 123.53/120.05 downleg, followed by Fibonacci 38.2% retracement at 121.38 and 200SMA at 121.58, which is expected to cap extended rallies.
On the downside, daily close below cracked Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 118.05/123.74 rally at 120.22 and sustained break below 120.00 handle, is needed to confirm bearish resumption.

Res: 120.89; 121.38; 121.58; 121.79
Sup: 120.33; 120.05; 119.60; 119.39

AUDUSD
Recovery rally from 0.7095 low struggles at strong 0.7280 barrier, former tops of 15/16 Dec and Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7383/0.7095 downleg. Near-term price action consolidates within narrow range, with bullish setup of daily studies being supportive, but overbought slow Stochastic, warning of possible recovery stall.
Sideways-moving daily 20SMA offers initial support at 0.7241, followed 0.7207, 4-hour chart trough and Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.7095/0.7280 upleg, loss of which would be initial signal of stronger pullback.
Downside breakpoint lies at 0.7160 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement and thin daily Ichimoku cloud.
Conversely, daily close above 0.7280 will give initial bullish signal of further retracement of 0.7383/0.7095 downleg.

Res: 0.7280; 0.7315; 0.7332; 0.7383
Sup: 0.7253; 0.7241; 0.7207; 0.7166

Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (10:00 GMT)

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Best Anti Aging Tips to Look Young

Alluracell Skin Restore eliminate athlete's foot, you can use tea tree oil as a topical application . Suggestion is 3 or more times a day applying it to the infected area. In practically takes a chemistry degree to read the labels on some of these things and I always have to remember to wear my glasses. Education is truly the key to finding an effective anti aging skin care system.

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Best Anti Aging Tips to Look Young

Need sample EA to put stoploss for certain two order by Lot1 & Lot2 only

Hi
I need EA which set stop loss for only two orders if there lot = (Value)

for example: if i have order lot= 0.02 & lot = 0.03 need to set stop loss = 10 only

and need to put trailing stop for only 5 order which lot = Lot1,2,3,4,5 only

EA Parameters as follow:

StopLoss
1. Lot1 : .....
2. Lot2 : .....
Stop loss : .....

Trailing Stop

1. Lot1:
2. Lot2:
3. Lot3:
4. Lot4:
5. Lot5:

Trailing Stop Start: ...
Trailing Step: ....

I hope any one help me

Need sample EA to put stoploss for certain two order by Lot1 & Lot2 only

dimanche 27 décembre 2015

ZigZag Trading

Hi

I would like to get zigzag trading strategy.
Pleas kindly suggest which one is good?

ZigZag Trading

This week in monetary policy: Israel, Kyrgyzstan, Sri Lanka and Moldova

This week (December 28 through January 2) central banks from four countries or jurisdictions are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Israel, the Kyrgyz Republic, Sri Lanka and Moldova.
Following table includes the name of the country, the date of the next policy decision, the current policy rate, the result of the last policy decision, the change in the policy rate year to date, the rate one year ago, and the country’s MSCI classification.
The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always accessed by clicking on This Week.

WEEK 53 DEC 28-JAN 2, 2015: COUNTRY DATE RATE LATEST YTD 1 YR AGO MSCI ISRAEL 28-Dec 0.10% 0 -15 0.25% DM KYRGYZ REPUBLIC 28-Dec 10.00% 0 -50 10.50% SRI LANKA 30-Dec 6.00% 0 -50 6.50% FM MOLDOVA 30-Dec 19.50% 0 1300 6.50%

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Go to Original Story

This week in monetary policy: Israel, Kyrgyzstan, Sri Lanka and Moldova

Candles Ratio - VertexFX Client Side Indicator

Candles Ratio is a Client Side VertexFX VTL indicator. Candles Ratio indicator plots the ratio of the candle body for the last 20 bars. The ratio is calculated by taking the open close relationship of candles. The up close candle body sizes are summed for the last 20 bars and also the down candle body sizes are summed for the last 20 bars. Then the sum of the body size of up candles is divided by the sum of the body size of down candles to get the candles ratio indicator. The indicator is plotted as line below the candle chart.
The Candles ratio indicator shows the underlying trend in the market. If the indicator is rising and above 1, most of the candles are closing above its open indicating an upward bias in price move. Lower values below 1 indicates most of the candles are closing below the open and down trend is in force. The indicator is very helpful in anticipating breakout from consolidation. If the indicator is above 1, an upward breakout is expected. If the indicator is below 1, a downward breakout from consolidation is expected. The candle ratio range (default 20) can be customized through the parameter “period CN”.

Attached Files

Candles_ratio_indicator.zip (2.7 KB)

Candles Ratio - VertexFX Client Side Indicator

samedi 26 décembre 2015

Hedge And Hedge 2

Hello everyone

It was decided to publish a signal of EA which now have my test development.

It is a technique that aims mainly reverse trend.

Many of the I signal provider does not need to have a stop loss has been decided to carry out the loss cut in my dare minimum.

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It was decided to publish in here ahead of the other form.:em3900:

Hedge And Hedge 2

harmonic indicator

Hi,

I am looking for a correctly coded harmonic indicator that shows most if not all of the standard harmonic patterns (shark, abcd, gartley, butterfly, crab, etc)

There are many out there such as the Korharmonics and ZUP indicator, but both of these have the same issue with the last leg of the pattern repainting itself. This is due to the fact that they both use the zig zag indicator as its primary measurement for highs and lows and pattern formations. This is absolutely incorrect and not the way it should be done. What happens is that when you get a harmonic pattern formation but the final validation lag will go up and down with the zig zag thus you have no idea when or where the pattern ends and are left guessing as to its validity.

The harmonic patterns should be drawn and based off math. Not the zig zag indicator. Once a pattern has formed, it has formed and that is it.

Anyone have such an indicator?

- forexmmm

harmonic indicator

USDJPY Breaks Trendline and Falls to 200 EMA

A big move in occurred this holiday week in USDJPY, in which the pair broke a major trendline (the blue line in the chart below) and fell to its 200 EMA (green line).

At this point, I'd prefer to see price fall to support at around 118.40 before considering buying. Preferably, there would be some type of accumulation pattern there as well. Below is a weekly chart of USDJPY that offers that perspective.

USDJPY Breaks Trendline and Falls to 200 EMA

MONEY CREATED OUT OF NOTHING

This is what I said in another post then I saw this article and felt it needed it's own thread for people to be able to voice what they think.

"Just like the FED in the US almost. If most people understood that the FED is a privately owned business and not ruled by government I think it would be whole different ballgame in the US but they continue to be the sheeple of the herd and do what they are told because they are information herded to do what the masters want. Good luck with that sheeple!"

Here is link to the article:
http://ift.tt/1Sgnaho

I copied and pasted some of the article here for the thread so I could highlight the outlandishness of what it says. Here you go:

"In 2016, the Federal Reserve will pay at least $12.2 billion to U.S. and foreign banks to keep the money created via its quantitative easing programs out of the economy. If the Fed raises rates as expected next year, the amount nearly doubles to $23.1 billion."

From 2008 to 2015, the Fed purchased over $4 trillion worth of bonds to stimulate growth in the economy. Risk markets responded, as is demonstrated by the close correlation between the S&P 500 and growth of the Fed’s balance sheet through its bond purchases.
How can they purchase 4T in bonds? Create the money out of nothing and buy them?

To sterilize the vast sums of money that would otherwise circulate throughout the economy and cause price inflation, the Fed pays an above-market interest rate of 0.50% to banks on reserves, or digital cash, held at the Fed. Currently, banks are holding $2.5 trillion at the Fed and are paid $34.5 million per day in interest.
Aren't they the ones who made money out of nothing to "prop up" the economy? And WTF does sterilize mean exactly? Digital cash? Money that does noooooot exist! That you are paying interest on now. oppsy:eek:

In addition to paying interest on reserves, the Fed conducts daily auctions to drain cash from the economy and maintain a floor on short-term interest rates. These reverse repo operations pay 0.25% and have averaged $154 billion per day since the Fed raised rates on December 16. Drain cash from the economy that they just put into it with the 4T they made out of nothing except you are paying back the interest in real money. What's wrong with that picture?
The sheer audacity of that statement alone is outlandish.

What is the interest rate(s) you are now paying the rich people who made money out of nothing compounded over the course of this next business cycle? Article says it is already 154 billion a day that they are repo'ing.

Money out of nothing now getting paid back 154 billion per day real sheeple of the herd dollars in interest they are paying on all of the crazy stuff they bought with their new "money". Better get a clue people!;)

After six years of near-zero interest rates, the Fed is in uncharted territory. Never before has a central bank attempted to raise rates after having provided so much stimulus and expanding its balance sheet to such a degree. The legacy of the Fed’s quantitative experiment is largess to banks and funds that will likely total $24 billion in 2016.

They have no idea WTF they are doing and there is no oversight, no rules, (THEY make the rules), no government say in what they do or do not do, are you starting to get it now?

Next up is inflation because there has to be. It is part of the business cycle if you don't know what the business cycle is, you can do some research and look it up and educate yourself, especially if you live in the US. OR do you want to continue to be a sheeple of the herd?

MONEY CREATED OUT OF NOTHING

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Central Bank News Link List - Dec 25, 2015: Thailand's cenbank lifts 2015 growth forecast but cuts 2016 estimate

Here's today's Central Bank News' link list,click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.

Thailand’s cenbank lifts 2015 growth forecast but cuts 2015 estimate (Dow Jones)
Trinidad fires bank chief who named foreign exchange buyers(AP)
Nigeria set to devalue currency (World Bulletin)
Brazil cenbank raises 2016 inflation view, rate hike possible(Reuters)
Azerbaijani central bank to ease requirements for banks (Trend)
Central Bank: Brazil’s economy will contract 3.6 pct in 2015(EFE)
Gravity is back for 2016 markets as central bank support ebbs(Bloomberg)
China seen further easing monetary policy as growth grinds lower(Bloomberg)
China pledges policy support to economy, reform in 2016 (Reuters)
Switzerland to vote on banning banks from creating money (The Telegraph)
Slowing UK growth leaves Bank of England unhurried on rates(Reuters)
India cenbank external panel sought no change in rates in Dec policy(Reuters)
Rajan sets new rules for a faster, transparent rate transmission(Indian Express)
S. Korea’s c.bank to reduce rate-setting meetings from 12 to 8 from 2017 (Xinhua)
BSP seen raising policy rates by 50 bps in 2016 (Daily Inquirer)
BoC rate cuts validated, but market still wary of Poloz’s style(Reuters)
Leave your politics at the door, Polish rate setter tells heirs (Bloomberg)
ECB diaries show investor meetings curbed before decision(Bloomberg)
Singapore’s MAS unlikely to revise its monetary policy(EconoTimes)
Bank of Ghana to patch up policy rate lower (Graphic Online)

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Central Bank News Link List - Dec 25, 2015: Thailand's cenbank lifts 2015 growth forecast but cuts 2016 estimate

S&P 500 In a Distribution Pattern?

Below is the monthly chart of the S&P 500. Since breaking its major trendline in August, the market has rallied back to resistance, where it has formed in a relative range. Is this a distribution pattern, setting the market up for a larger decline?

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jeudi 24 décembre 2015

Egypt raises rate 50 bps, won't hesitate to raise further

Egypt's central bank raised its key rates, including the benchmark overnight deposit rate, by 50 basis points to "address inflationary pressures and anchor inflation expectations" and said it would "not hesitate to adjust the key CBE rates to ensure price stability over the medium-term."
The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), which in January this year cut its rate by 50 basis points, raised the overnight deposit rate to 9.25 percent, the overnight lending rate to 10.25 percent, the rate on its main operations and the discount rate to 9.75 percent.
The central bank's decision comes after the monetary policy committee on Dec. 17 postponed any decisions at its scheduled meeting until today in light of talks with the government aimed at working together to create a economic framework that will stimulate economic growth and create jobs.
The CBE, led by its governor, Tarek Amer who took over this month, and the government will again meet on Jan. 10.
Key elements of the new framework include, but is not limited to:
- Narrowing the fiscal deficit
- Maintain price stability by avoiding double digit inflation
- Reducing the trade deficit by encouraging local production
- Stepping up structural economic reform to raise the potential output

Inflationary pressures in Egypt have been building, as evidenced by the rise in non-food prices, with headline inflation rising to 11.1 percent in November from October's 9.7 percent but still below the 2015-high of 13.1 percent seen in May. Core inflation rose to 7.44 percent in November from 6.26 percent in October but still below May's 8.14 percent.
"Looking ahead, while upside risks to the inflation outlook are mitigated by contained imported inflation, in light of broad-based declines in international commodity prices, underlying domestic inflationary pressures could push up inflation expectations," the CBE said.
The Egyptian pound has been depreciating since 2010 but authorities are under pressure to devalue it even further with a wide gap between official exchange rates and black market rates.
Today the pound was quoted at 7.83 to the U.S. dollar, down 8.7 percent this year and down 26 percent since the start of 2011.
Egypt's Net International Reserves rose slightly to US$16.422 billion end-November from October's $16.415 billion but are still below around $20 billion in the months from April through June, and reserves of above $30 billion in the five years preceding the 2011 popular uprising against President Hosni Mubarak.
The uprising, part of the Arab Spring, resulted in the overthrow of Mubarak and scared off foreign tourists and investors, resulting in a plunge in much-needed foreign currency and revenue.
Revenue from tourism was dealt another setback in 2013 when the Egyptian army helped remove President Mohamed Morsi.
In 2014 revenue from tourism amounted to US$7.5 billion compared with $12.5 billion in 2010 but still up from $5.9 billion in 2013.
Economic growth, however, improved in the 2014/15 fiscal year, which ended June 30, to 4.2 percent compared with 2.2 percent in 2013/14, with strong investment growth more than compensated for the drag from a fall in exports, the CBE said.
In the second quarter of the 2015 calendar year, Egypt's Gross Domestic Product expanded by an annual 4.5 percent in the second quarter from 3.0 percent in the first quarter.

The Central Bank of Egypt issued the following statement:

"In its meeting held on December 24, 2015, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to raise the overnight deposit rate, overnight lending rate, and the rate of the CBE's main operation by 50 bps to 9.25 percent, 10.25 percent, and 9.75 percent, respectively. The discount rate was also raised to 9.75 percent.
During the Coordinating Council meeting on December 17, the government and the CBE have decided to collaborate on designing a macroeconomic framework, aimed at achieving macroeconomic stability that will contribute positively to economic growth and job creation. The next meeting is scheduled on January 10, 2016. The key elements of the framework include but are not limited to:

? Narrowing the country’s fiscal deficit to sustainable levels in order to alleviate the pressure on domestic liquidity, avail greater resources to the private sector to increase production, and hence reduce the consequent inflationary pressures from money creation.
? Maintaining price stability by avoiding double digit inflation rates over the medium- term.
? Reducing the country’s trade deficit by initiating a strategy aimed at encouraging local production to meet domestic market needs and enhance imports substitutions.
? Stepping up the structural economic reform agenda to raise the economy’s potential output, by addressing the impediments that challenge increasing investments.

In connection to the latest inflation outturn, inflationary pressures have been slowly building up as evident in the increase in non-food prices, which have contributed to headline and core inflation rates. Annual headline CPI jumped to 11.08 percent in November from 9.70 percent in October, partly on the back of unfavorable base effect from last year, while core inflation increased to 7.44 percent from 6.26 percent in October. Looking ahead, while upside risks to the inflation outlook are mitigated by contained imported inflation, in light of broad-based declines in international commodity prices, underlying domestic inflationary pressures could push up inflation expectations.

On the other hand, real GDP grew robustly by 4.2 percent in 2014/15 after recording 2.2 percent (y/y) growth in 2013/14. The main contributors to growth were the manufacturing, construction, real estate and tourism sectors, while the extractions sector remained weak. In the meantime, strong investment growth more than compensated for the negative contribution of net exports. Looking ahead, while investments in domestic mega projects are expected to continue to contribute to economic growth, the downside risks and uncertainty that surround the global economy on the back of softening growth in emerging markets and challenges facing the Euro Area could pose downside risks to domestic GDP.

In view of the above and given the balance of risks surrounding the inflation and GDP outlooks, the MPC judges that a rate hike is warranted to address inflationary pressures and anchor inflation expectations.

The MPC reiterates its price stabileity mandate and will continue to closely monitor all economic developments, particularly fiscal policy and its effect on the inflation outlook, and will not hesitate to adjust the key CBE rates to ensure price stability over the medium-term. "

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Egypt raises rate 50 bps, won't hesitate to raise further

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"Oil is now cheaper than coffee, milk, and even water. No really! Oil which peaked close to $150 a barrel only a few years ago is now at around $35 a barrel. Prices of some commodities here like coffee have also dropped (at least in terms of raw product). We would assume oil is the most volatile product here and where it goes next is a fool’s game, but at least for now stock up on that oil."

Oil is now cheaper than coffee, milk, water - ValueWalk