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lundi 30 novembre 2015
India maintains rate, to use room for cuts when available
India's central bank left its key repo rate steady at 6.75 percent, as expected, but said it would use any room for further rate cuts, when available, while remaining on the path toward lowering inflation to 5 percent by March 2017.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) noted that less than half of this year's rate cut totaling 125 basis points had been transmitted by commercial banks to customers as the median lending rate has only declined by 60 basis points.
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said the central bank would shortly finalise its methodology for determine the base rate that is based on the marginal cost of funds that all banks will move to.
"These moves should further help transmission of policy rates into lending rates," Rajan said, adding that the on-going clean-up of banks' balance sheets should also create room for lending.
A rise in India's inflation rate to 5.0 percent in October from July's 3.69 percent was largely anticipated, Rajan said, and inflation is expected to rise further until December before leveling out.
The outlook for India's agricultural sector is subdued while some manufacturing areas are robust but overall weak external demand is holding back growth.
The forecast for growth in the current fiscal 2015-16 fiscal year was unchanged at 7.4 percent, with a mild downside bias, Rajan added.
The Reserve Bank of India issued the following statement by Governor Raghuram Rajan (excluding charts):
"Monetary and Liquidity Measures
On the basis of an assessment of the current and evolving macroeconomic situation, it has been decided to:
Assessment
2. Since the fourth bi-monthly statement of September 2015, global growth continues to be weak. Global trade has slowed further with waning demand and oversupply in several primary commodities and industrial materials. In the United States, inventory accumulation is likely to hold down growth in Q4 of 2015. Industrial production slumped in October on cutbacks in oil drilling, while exports were undermined by the strengthening US dollar. Consumer confidence was, however, supported by the diminishing slack in the labour market. In the Euro area, high frequency indicators such as retail sales, purchasing managers’ indices and unemployment point to an uptick in a still anaemic recovery, with monetary policy expected to be increasingly supportive as risks of undershooting the inflation target persist. In China, slowing nominal GDP growth and high debt continue to raise concerns, especially given the overcapacity in certain sectors. Other emerging market economies (EMEs) continue to face headwinds from domestic structural constraints, shrinking trade volumes and depressed commodity prices.
3. Global financial markets began Q4 on a calmer note after the Federal Open Market Committee stayed on hold in September. Stock markets recorded modest gains in October; major currencies recouped some ground against the US dollar and crude oil traded briefly above US $ 50 per barrel for the first time since July. Markets were also boosted by the easing of monetary policy in China and indications of further stimulus in the Euro area and Japan. Following the early November release of robust US jobs data which increased the likelihood of US monetary policy starting to normalise in December, the US dollar has appreciated significantly, and US yields have hardened. Bond markets in EMEs have generally been tracking the hardening of US yields. Currency markets in EMEs have experienced selling pressures as portfolio investors continue to exit them as an asset class. Unease in investor sentiment is likely to increase ahead of the imminent divergence in advanced economy monetary policy stances.
4. On the domestic front, provisional estimates of gross value added (GVA) at basic prices for Q2 of 2015-16 rose on the back of acceleration in industrial activity. Other indicators suggest the economy is in the early stages of a recovery, though with some areas of continued weakness.
5. Value added in agriculture and allied activities picked up on the modest increase in kharif output and timely policy interventions to stem the effects of the deficient south-west monsoon. Turning to Q3, the north-east monsoon commenced on a listless note, but the subsequent cyclonic weather has improved precipitation and raised the probability of a normal monsoon as predicted by the Indian Meteorological Department. Nevertheless, the exceptionally dry start to the season affected sowing in all major rabi crops, while the excessive rains that followed may have reduced the prospects of coffee and paddy. Overall, the current outlook for agricultural growth in 2015-16 appears moderate at best at this juncture.
6. The Index of Industrial Production picked up in the second quarter. Early results of the Reserve Bank’s order books, inventories and capacity utilisation survey indicate that there was robust growth in new manufacturing orders in the second quarter, and finished goods inventories declined while raw materials inventories increased. Not all indicators, however, are positive. While urban consumption is showing signs of a pick-up in some areas such as passenger vehicles sales, rural demand has been weakened by two consecutive deficient monsoons and slowing construction activity. Nevertheless, new project announcements as measured by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy grew more strongly in the second quarter. It remains to be seen whether growing public investment can crowd in private investment on a sustained basis, despite the still-low capacity utilisation.
7. Lead indicators of services sector are mixed. The services purchasing managers’ index increased in October 2015 on account of improvement in new business orders. Commercial vehicle sales (reflecting transportation demand) and domestic civil aviation passenger traffic accelerated year-on-year. On the other hand, tourist arrivals, cargo handled at major ports, railway freight traffic, domestic and international air cargo traffic, and measures of construction such as steel consumption slowed. Recent policy initiatives relating to rail, port and road projects are likely to improve construction activity, as will the Reserve Bank’s countercyclical reduction of capital charges on low income housing loans, albeit with gestation lags.
8. As anticipated in our previous policy, retail inflation measured by the consumer price index (CPI) increased for the third successive month in October 2015, pushed up by a surge in the monthly momentum. Food inflation rose sharply in October, driven especially by pulses.
9. CPI inflation excluding food, fuel, petrol and diesel also rose for three consecutive months on account of price increases in respect of housing, recreation and amusement, and personal care and effects. Within this broad category, education and health services contributed most to headline inflation. Households’ inflation expectations remain elevated although they have edged lower recently, perhaps in response to lower prices of petrol and diesel. Rural wage growth, as also corporate staff costs, remain subdued.
10. Underlying liquidity conditions tightened in October-November with the festival season draining currency from the system and some slowdown in government expenditure. In response, the Reserve Bank conducted variable rate repo and reverse repo auctions of various tenors in addition to regular 14-day variable rate repo. As a result, average net daily liquidity absorptions of ? 119 billion in Q2 gave way to average daily net injection of ? 372 billion in October, which scaled up to ? 856 billion in November. Money market rates remained around the policy repo rate – only rising slightly in the second week of November at the height of festival currency demand. Bank credit in the form of personal loans grew strongly as did non-bank financing flows particularly through commercial paper, public equity issues and housing finance.
11. In the external sector, exports contracted for the eleventh month in a row to October, indicative of the persisting weakness in global trade. Excluding petroleum products (PoL), however, the decline in exports was more moderate and early signs of a turnaround are visible in respect of readymade garments, drugs and pharmaceuticals and electronics. With global commodity prices, especially those of crude, softening further, both PoL and non-PoL exports continued to contract, with the latter shrinking for the fourth consecutive month. The decline in bullion imports despite the festival season helped narrow the trade deficit in October as well as over the financial year so far, moderating the current account deficit further. Net foreign direct investment (FDI), external commercial borrowings and accretions to non-resident deposits have risen in relation to last year; however, portfolio outflows from both debt and equity segments rose in November. During 2015-16 (up to November 20), there has been an accretion of US$ 10.8 billion to the foreign exchange reserves.
Policy Stance and Rationale
12. In the bi-monthly monetary policy statement of September, the Reserve Bank assessed that the inflation target for January 2016 at 6 per cent was within reach. Accordingly, it front-loaded its policy action in response to weak domestic and global demand that were holding back investment, while noting that structural reforms and productivity improvements would continue to provide the main impetus for sustainable growth.
13. Since then, inflation has turned up as anticipated, and is expected to rise further until December before plateauing. Although the seasonal moderation in prices of vegetables and fruits is expected to provide some respite, the El Nino induced shortening of winter may limit this effect. The early indications of rabi sowing together with low reservoir levels suggest that astute supply management by the central government, including close coordination with State governments, is necessary to minimize any shortfall in the rabi crop. While oil prices, barring geopolitical shocks, are expected to remain benign for a few quarters more, the uptick of CPI inflation excluding food and fuel for two months in succession warrants vigilance. Taking all this into consideration, inflation is expected to broadly follow the path set out in the September review with risks slightly to the downside .
14. The outlook for agriculture is subdued, in view of both rabi and kharif prospects being hit by monsoon vagaries. While there are areas of robust growth in manufacturing such as capital goods and passenger cars, weak rural and external demand holds back stronger overall growth. Similarly, while prospects for a revival in service sector activity have been boosted by optimism on new business, pockets of lacklustre activity such as construction weigh on the overall outlook. The step-up in public capital spending and the easing stance of monetary policy provide the enabling environment for a revival in private investment demand, supported by easing input prices and improving conditions for doing business. The growth projection for 2015-16 has accordingly been kept unchanged at 7.4 per cent with a mild downside bias.
15. The Reserve Bank will follow developments on commodity prices, especially food and oil, even while tracking inflationary expectations and external developments. The implementation of the Pay Commission proposals, and its effect on wages and rents, will also be a factor in the Reserve Bank’s future deliberations, though its direct effect on aggregate demand is likely to be offset by appropriate budgetary tightening as the Government stays on the fiscal consolidation path. In the meantime, since the rate reduction cycle that commenced in January, less than half of the cumulative policy repo rate reduction of 125 bps has been transmitted by banks. The median base lending rate has declined only by 60 bps. The Reserve Bank will shortly finalise the methodology for determining the base rate based on the marginal cost of funds, which all banks will move to. The Government is examining linking small savings interest rates to market interest rates. These moves should further help transmission of policy rates into lending rates. In addition, the on-going clean-up of bank balance sheets will help create room for fresh lending. The Reserve Bank will use the space for further accommodation, when available, while keeping the economy anchored to the projected disinflation path that should take inflation down to 5 per cent by March 2017.
16. The sixth bi-monthly monetary policy statement will be announced on Tuesday, February 2, 2016."
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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) noted that less than half of this year's rate cut totaling 125 basis points had been transmitted by commercial banks to customers as the median lending rate has only declined by 60 basis points.
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said the central bank would shortly finalise its methodology for determine the base rate that is based on the marginal cost of funds that all banks will move to.
"These moves should further help transmission of policy rates into lending rates," Rajan said, adding that the on-going clean-up of banks' balance sheets should also create room for lending.
A rise in India's inflation rate to 5.0 percent in October from July's 3.69 percent was largely anticipated, Rajan said, and inflation is expected to rise further until December before leveling out.
The outlook for India's agricultural sector is subdued while some manufacturing areas are robust but overall weak external demand is holding back growth.
The forecast for growth in the current fiscal 2015-16 fiscal year was unchanged at 7.4 percent, with a mild downside bias, Rajan added.
The Reserve Bank of India issued the following statement by Governor Raghuram Rajan (excluding charts):
"Monetary and Liquidity Measures
On the basis of an assessment of the current and evolving macroeconomic situation, it has been decided to:
- keep the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 6.75 per cent;
- keep the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks unchanged at 4.0 per cent of net demand and time liability (NDTL);
- continue to provide liquidity under overnight repos at 0.25 per cent of bank-wise NDTL at the LAF repo rate and liquidity under 14-day term repos as well as longer term repos of up to 0.75 per cent of NDTL of the banking system through auctions; and
- continue with daily variable rate repos and reverse repos to smooth liquidity.
Assessment
2. Since the fourth bi-monthly statement of September 2015, global growth continues to be weak. Global trade has slowed further with waning demand and oversupply in several primary commodities and industrial materials. In the United States, inventory accumulation is likely to hold down growth in Q4 of 2015. Industrial production slumped in October on cutbacks in oil drilling, while exports were undermined by the strengthening US dollar. Consumer confidence was, however, supported by the diminishing slack in the labour market. In the Euro area, high frequency indicators such as retail sales, purchasing managers’ indices and unemployment point to an uptick in a still anaemic recovery, with monetary policy expected to be increasingly supportive as risks of undershooting the inflation target persist. In China, slowing nominal GDP growth and high debt continue to raise concerns, especially given the overcapacity in certain sectors. Other emerging market economies (EMEs) continue to face headwinds from domestic structural constraints, shrinking trade volumes and depressed commodity prices.
3. Global financial markets began Q4 on a calmer note after the Federal Open Market Committee stayed on hold in September. Stock markets recorded modest gains in October; major currencies recouped some ground against the US dollar and crude oil traded briefly above US $ 50 per barrel for the first time since July. Markets were also boosted by the easing of monetary policy in China and indications of further stimulus in the Euro area and Japan. Following the early November release of robust US jobs data which increased the likelihood of US monetary policy starting to normalise in December, the US dollar has appreciated significantly, and US yields have hardened. Bond markets in EMEs have generally been tracking the hardening of US yields. Currency markets in EMEs have experienced selling pressures as portfolio investors continue to exit them as an asset class. Unease in investor sentiment is likely to increase ahead of the imminent divergence in advanced economy monetary policy stances.
4. On the domestic front, provisional estimates of gross value added (GVA) at basic prices for Q2 of 2015-16 rose on the back of acceleration in industrial activity. Other indicators suggest the economy is in the early stages of a recovery, though with some areas of continued weakness.
5. Value added in agriculture and allied activities picked up on the modest increase in kharif output and timely policy interventions to stem the effects of the deficient south-west monsoon. Turning to Q3, the north-east monsoon commenced on a listless note, but the subsequent cyclonic weather has improved precipitation and raised the probability of a normal monsoon as predicted by the Indian Meteorological Department. Nevertheless, the exceptionally dry start to the season affected sowing in all major rabi crops, while the excessive rains that followed may have reduced the prospects of coffee and paddy. Overall, the current outlook for agricultural growth in 2015-16 appears moderate at best at this juncture.
6. The Index of Industrial Production picked up in the second quarter. Early results of the Reserve Bank’s order books, inventories and capacity utilisation survey indicate that there was robust growth in new manufacturing orders in the second quarter, and finished goods inventories declined while raw materials inventories increased. Not all indicators, however, are positive. While urban consumption is showing signs of a pick-up in some areas such as passenger vehicles sales, rural demand has been weakened by two consecutive deficient monsoons and slowing construction activity. Nevertheless, new project announcements as measured by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy grew more strongly in the second quarter. It remains to be seen whether growing public investment can crowd in private investment on a sustained basis, despite the still-low capacity utilisation.
7. Lead indicators of services sector are mixed. The services purchasing managers’ index increased in October 2015 on account of improvement in new business orders. Commercial vehicle sales (reflecting transportation demand) and domestic civil aviation passenger traffic accelerated year-on-year. On the other hand, tourist arrivals, cargo handled at major ports, railway freight traffic, domestic and international air cargo traffic, and measures of construction such as steel consumption slowed. Recent policy initiatives relating to rail, port and road projects are likely to improve construction activity, as will the Reserve Bank’s countercyclical reduction of capital charges on low income housing loans, albeit with gestation lags.
8. As anticipated in our previous policy, retail inflation measured by the consumer price index (CPI) increased for the third successive month in October 2015, pushed up by a surge in the monthly momentum. Food inflation rose sharply in October, driven especially by pulses.
9. CPI inflation excluding food, fuel, petrol and diesel also rose for three consecutive months on account of price increases in respect of housing, recreation and amusement, and personal care and effects. Within this broad category, education and health services contributed most to headline inflation. Households’ inflation expectations remain elevated although they have edged lower recently, perhaps in response to lower prices of petrol and diesel. Rural wage growth, as also corporate staff costs, remain subdued.
10. Underlying liquidity conditions tightened in October-November with the festival season draining currency from the system and some slowdown in government expenditure. In response, the Reserve Bank conducted variable rate repo and reverse repo auctions of various tenors in addition to regular 14-day variable rate repo. As a result, average net daily liquidity absorptions of ? 119 billion in Q2 gave way to average daily net injection of ? 372 billion in October, which scaled up to ? 856 billion in November. Money market rates remained around the policy repo rate – only rising slightly in the second week of November at the height of festival currency demand. Bank credit in the form of personal loans grew strongly as did non-bank financing flows particularly through commercial paper, public equity issues and housing finance.
11. In the external sector, exports contracted for the eleventh month in a row to October, indicative of the persisting weakness in global trade. Excluding petroleum products (PoL), however, the decline in exports was more moderate and early signs of a turnaround are visible in respect of readymade garments, drugs and pharmaceuticals and electronics. With global commodity prices, especially those of crude, softening further, both PoL and non-PoL exports continued to contract, with the latter shrinking for the fourth consecutive month. The decline in bullion imports despite the festival season helped narrow the trade deficit in October as well as over the financial year so far, moderating the current account deficit further. Net foreign direct investment (FDI), external commercial borrowings and accretions to non-resident deposits have risen in relation to last year; however, portfolio outflows from both debt and equity segments rose in November. During 2015-16 (up to November 20), there has been an accretion of US$ 10.8 billion to the foreign exchange reserves.
Policy Stance and Rationale
12. In the bi-monthly monetary policy statement of September, the Reserve Bank assessed that the inflation target for January 2016 at 6 per cent was within reach. Accordingly, it front-loaded its policy action in response to weak domestic and global demand that were holding back investment, while noting that structural reforms and productivity improvements would continue to provide the main impetus for sustainable growth.
13. Since then, inflation has turned up as anticipated, and is expected to rise further until December before plateauing. Although the seasonal moderation in prices of vegetables and fruits is expected to provide some respite, the El Nino induced shortening of winter may limit this effect. The early indications of rabi sowing together with low reservoir levels suggest that astute supply management by the central government, including close coordination with State governments, is necessary to minimize any shortfall in the rabi crop. While oil prices, barring geopolitical shocks, are expected to remain benign for a few quarters more, the uptick of CPI inflation excluding food and fuel for two months in succession warrants vigilance. Taking all this into consideration, inflation is expected to broadly follow the path set out in the September review with risks slightly to the downside .
14. The outlook for agriculture is subdued, in view of both rabi and kharif prospects being hit by monsoon vagaries. While there are areas of robust growth in manufacturing such as capital goods and passenger cars, weak rural and external demand holds back stronger overall growth. Similarly, while prospects for a revival in service sector activity have been boosted by optimism on new business, pockets of lacklustre activity such as construction weigh on the overall outlook. The step-up in public capital spending and the easing stance of monetary policy provide the enabling environment for a revival in private investment demand, supported by easing input prices and improving conditions for doing business. The growth projection for 2015-16 has accordingly been kept unchanged at 7.4 per cent with a mild downside bias.
15. The Reserve Bank will follow developments on commodity prices, especially food and oil, even while tracking inflationary expectations and external developments. The implementation of the Pay Commission proposals, and its effect on wages and rents, will also be a factor in the Reserve Bank’s future deliberations, though its direct effect on aggregate demand is likely to be offset by appropriate budgetary tightening as the Government stays on the fiscal consolidation path. In the meantime, since the rate reduction cycle that commenced in January, less than half of the cumulative policy repo rate reduction of 125 bps has been transmitted by banks. The median base lending rate has declined only by 60 bps. The Reserve Bank will shortly finalise the methodology for determining the base rate based on the marginal cost of funds, which all banks will move to. The Government is examining linking small savings interest rates to market interest rates. These moves should further help transmission of policy rates into lending rates. In addition, the on-going clean-up of bank balance sheets will help create room for fresh lending. The Reserve Bank will use the space for further accommodation, when available, while keeping the economy anchored to the projected disinflation path that should take inflation down to 5 per cent by March 2017.
16. The sixth bi-monthly monetary policy statement will be announced on Tuesday, February 2, 2016."
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India maintains rate, to use room for cuts when available
Kyrgyzstan holds rate, to intervene more in FX if needed
The central bank of Kyrgyzstan kept its policy rate steady at 10.0 percent and said it was monitoring the situation on the domestic currency markets and would continue to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary to smooth out sharp fluctuations.
The comment by the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic about interventions is new compared with last month, reflecting a continued depreciation of the som currency this year.
The som started depreciating against the U.S. dollar in June and after a brief rebound in August it has dropped further. On Friday it fell to a low of 75.9 to the dollar but was slightly firmer at 73.4 today though still down 19.7 percent this year.
The central bank is one of six central banks worldwide that have both raised and lowered rates this year, mainly in response to movements in the exchange rate and thus inflation. Kyrgyzstan's central bank has cut its rate by a net 50 basis points this year.
The economy of the Kyrgyz Republic, which borders China to the south and Kazakhstan to the north, is continuing to expand with growth of 4.8 percent in the first 10 months of the, driven by increasing output from the Kumtor gold mine. Excluding Kumtor, Gross Domestic Product rose by 4.0 percent, the central bank said.
Kyrgyzstan's inflation rate eased to 4.9 percent in October from 6.4 percent in September and then to 3.6 percent as of November 20, the bank said, mainly due to low growth in food prices and a fall in fuel prices.
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The comment by the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic about interventions is new compared with last month, reflecting a continued depreciation of the som currency this year.
The som started depreciating against the U.S. dollar in June and after a brief rebound in August it has dropped further. On Friday it fell to a low of 75.9 to the dollar but was slightly firmer at 73.4 today though still down 19.7 percent this year.
The central bank is one of six central banks worldwide that have both raised and lowered rates this year, mainly in response to movements in the exchange rate and thus inflation. Kyrgyzstan's central bank has cut its rate by a net 50 basis points this year.
The economy of the Kyrgyz Republic, which borders China to the south and Kazakhstan to the north, is continuing to expand with growth of 4.8 percent in the first 10 months of the, driven by increasing output from the Kumtor gold mine. Excluding Kumtor, Gross Domestic Product rose by 4.0 percent, the central bank said.
Kyrgyzstan's inflation rate eased to 4.9 percent in October from 6.4 percent in September and then to 3.6 percent as of November 20, the bank said, mainly due to low growth in food prices and a fall in fuel prices.
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Kyrgyzstan holds rate, to intervene more in FX if needed
Australia maintains rate, but can still cut if needed
Australia's central bank left its benchmark cash rate unchanged at 2.0 percent, as widely expected, and restated that "the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand."
But the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which has cut its rate by 50 basis points this year to support growth in light of reduced external demand for its raw materials, also repeated that it had decided to maintain its current rate because "the prospects for an improvement in economic conditions had firmed a little over recent months."
Australia's economy is continuing its "moderate expansion," the RBA said, pointing to a gradual improvement in non-mining sectors along with stronger growth in employment.
The current low level of inflation reflects the spare capacity in the economy and inflation is seen in line with the RBA's 2-3 percent target over the next one to two years, the central bank said.
The rise in house prices in Melbourne and Sydney "has moderated" in recent months, the RBA said, a slight change to last month's statement when it observed that prices had continued to rise though the pace of growth had moderated.
The RBA also repeated its recent statement that the Australian dollar, known as the Aussie, was "adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices.
Australia's inflation rate was steady at 1.5 percent in the third and second quarters while growth in the second quarter was only 0.2 percent up from the first quarter for annual growth of 2.0 percent, down from 2.5 percent.
The Reserve Bank of Australia issued the following statement:
"At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent.
The global economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with some softening in conditions in the Asian region, continuing US growth and a recovery in Europe. Key commodity prices are much lower than a year ago, reflecting increased supply, including from Australia, as well as weaker demand. Australia's terms of trade are falling.
The Federal Reserve is expected to start increasing its policy rate over the period ahead, but some other major central banks are continuing to ease monetary policy. Volatility in financial markets has abated somewhat for the moment. While credit costs for some emerging market countries remain higher than a year ago, global financial conditions overall remain very accommodative.
In Australia, the available information suggests that moderate expansion in the economy continues in the face of a large decline in capital spending in the mining sector. While GDP growth has been somewhat below longer-term averages for some time, business surveys suggest a gradual improvement in conditions in non-mining sectors over the past year. This has been accompanied by stronger growth in employment and a steady rate of unemployment.
Inflation is low and should remain so, with the economy likely to have a degree of spare capacity for some time yet. Inflation is forecast to be consistent with the target over the next one to two years.
In such circumstances, monetary policy needs to be accommodative. Low interest rates are acting to support borrowing and spending. While the recent changes to some lending rates for housing will reduce this support slightly, overall conditions are still quite accommodative. Credit growth has increased a little over recent months, with credit provided by intermediaries to businesses picking up. Growth in lending to investors in the housing market has eased. Supervisory measures are helping to contain risks that may arise from the housing market.
The pace of growth in dwelling prices has moderated in Melbourne and Sydney over recent months and has remained mostly subdued in other cities. In other asset markets, prices for commercial property have been supported by lower long-term interest rates, while equity prices have moved in parallel with developments in global markets. The Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices.
At today's meeting the Board again judged that the prospects for an improvement in economic conditions had firmed a little over recent months and that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate. Members also observed that the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand. The Board will continue to assess the outlook, and hence whether the current stance of policy will most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target."
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But the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which has cut its rate by 50 basis points this year to support growth in light of reduced external demand for its raw materials, also repeated that it had decided to maintain its current rate because "the prospects for an improvement in economic conditions had firmed a little over recent months."
Australia's economy is continuing its "moderate expansion," the RBA said, pointing to a gradual improvement in non-mining sectors along with stronger growth in employment.
The current low level of inflation reflects the spare capacity in the economy and inflation is seen in line with the RBA's 2-3 percent target over the next one to two years, the central bank said.
The rise in house prices in Melbourne and Sydney "has moderated" in recent months, the RBA said, a slight change to last month's statement when it observed that prices had continued to rise though the pace of growth had moderated.
The RBA also repeated its recent statement that the Australian dollar, known as the Aussie, was "adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices.
Australia's inflation rate was steady at 1.5 percent in the third and second quarters while growth in the second quarter was only 0.2 percent up from the first quarter for annual growth of 2.0 percent, down from 2.5 percent.
The Reserve Bank of Australia issued the following statement:
"At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent.
The global economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with some softening in conditions in the Asian region, continuing US growth and a recovery in Europe. Key commodity prices are much lower than a year ago, reflecting increased supply, including from Australia, as well as weaker demand. Australia's terms of trade are falling.
The Federal Reserve is expected to start increasing its policy rate over the period ahead, but some other major central banks are continuing to ease monetary policy. Volatility in financial markets has abated somewhat for the moment. While credit costs for some emerging market countries remain higher than a year ago, global financial conditions overall remain very accommodative.
In Australia, the available information suggests that moderate expansion in the economy continues in the face of a large decline in capital spending in the mining sector. While GDP growth has been somewhat below longer-term averages for some time, business surveys suggest a gradual improvement in conditions in non-mining sectors over the past year. This has been accompanied by stronger growth in employment and a steady rate of unemployment.
Inflation is low and should remain so, with the economy likely to have a degree of spare capacity for some time yet. Inflation is forecast to be consistent with the target over the next one to two years.
In such circumstances, monetary policy needs to be accommodative. Low interest rates are acting to support borrowing and spending. While the recent changes to some lending rates for housing will reduce this support slightly, overall conditions are still quite accommodative. Credit growth has increased a little over recent months, with credit provided by intermediaries to businesses picking up. Growth in lending to investors in the housing market has eased. Supervisory measures are helping to contain risks that may arise from the housing market.
The pace of growth in dwelling prices has moderated in Melbourne and Sydney over recent months and has remained mostly subdued in other cities. In other asset markets, prices for commercial property have been supported by lower long-term interest rates, while equity prices have moved in parallel with developments in global markets. The Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices.
At today's meeting the Board again judged that the prospects for an improvement in economic conditions had firmed a little over recent months and that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate. Members also observed that the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand. The Board will continue to assess the outlook, and hence whether the current stance of policy will most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target."
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Australia maintains rate, but can still cut if needed
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Dominican Republic holds rate, inflation heading to target
The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (CBDR) left its policy rate unchanged at 5.0 percent, saying that inflation was gradually converging toward the center of its target range of 4.0 percent, plus/minus 1 percentage points.
The CBDR, which has cut its rate by 125 basis points this year, most recently in May, added that domestic economic activity was "progressing well in the short term," and growth in Gross Domestic Product for this year was projected in the range of 6.5 to 7.0 percent, above the May forecast of around 6.0 percent.
Last week the International Monetary Fund said the country's growth momentum remains strong, with the economy projected to grow by 6.5-7.0 percent this year, propelled by domestic demand as employment recovers and external tailwinds boost disposable income.
The IMF also said the central bank's neutral policy stance is consistent with the objective of price stability but a tighter stance may be needed if stronger-than-anticipated inflation pressures emerge.
The central bank said the country's current account balance is expected to end the year at around 2.0 percent of GDP, the lowest deficit in the last 10 years, and the primary fiscal surplus for 2016 is seen around 0.7 percent of GDP.
"These positive results in the external and fiscal accounts would facilitate the accumulation of reserves and the relative stability of the exchange market," the CBDR said.
Inflation in the Dominican Republic rose to 1.23 percent in October from 0.39 percent in September while core inflation was 1.91 percent, the central bank said.
GDP in the second quarter rose by 2.38 percent from the first quarter for annual growth of 6.2 percent, down from 6.6 percent in the first quarter.
The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic issued the following statement:
"At its monetary policy meeting in November 2015, the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (CBDR) decided to keep its interest rate monetary policy at 5.00% annually.
The decision on the benchmark rate was preceded by a comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic outlook, including the balance of risks around inflation projections, market expectations and relevant international environment for the Dominican economy. It was noted that in October, annual inflation rose to 1.23% and, in cumulative terms, inflation rose to 2.08% that month. In addition, core inflation, which reflects the monetary conditions of the economy, stood at 1.91% yoy. End inflation around the lower limit of the target set in the monetary program for 2015, gradually converging toward the center of the range of 4.0% ± 1.0% in 2016.
In the external context, according to Consensus Forecast, the global economy would grow 2.6% in 2015, accelerating to 2.9% in 2016, driven by the performance of developed countries. United States of America (USA) would experience a growth rate of around 2.4% in 2015 and 2.6% in 2016, while the Euro Area (EA) would expand by 1.5% and 1.7% in those years, respectively. Inflation in the industrialized economies of Europe and the US remain near zero for 2015. By 2016, increase by about 1.7% in the US and 1.1% in the eurozone, in an environment of lower unemployment.
On another note, the outlook for major emerging economies remain lower, highlighting Brazil's recession and the slowdown in the rest of net commodity-exporting economies in Latin America, projecting a contraction of -0.8% in 2015 and recovering gradually in 2016, with moderate growth of 0.2%. The Latin American economic outlook in 2015 is influenced by the estimated contraction of the economies of Brazil (-3.0%) and Venezuela (-8.0%) as well as by the low growth projected for Argentina (1.0%) and slower growth in other major exporters of commodities, such as Chile (2.1%) and Peru (2.8%).
For its part, China's economy would grow 6.8% this year and 6.3% next year, below the average of the last decade, according to projections from the International Monetary Fund. In foreign exchange markets, the trend of appreciation of the US dollar remains as prices of commodities, particularly oil and gold, still below the average of recent years.
Domestically, economic activity is progressing well in the short term. The recent IMF mission evaluating national economic conditions, reiterated that the Dominican Republic is still among the most dynamic economies in the region. In that sense, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projected for 2015 envisages a real growth rate in the range 6.5% -7.0%. Consistent with nominal GDP growth, the private sector lending in local currency grow at an annual rate around 11.0% as of November.
On the external sector, the current account balance would close the year with the lowest deficit in the last ten years, around 2.0% of GDP, lower oil prices and the good performance of tourism revenues, remittances and export processing zones.Regarding fiscal policy, the projected primary surplus remains in the current year while for 2016 envisages a primary surplus around 0.7% of GDP. These positive results in the external and fiscal accounts, would facilitate the accumulation of reserves and the relative stability of the exchange market.
The Central Bank confirms its commitment to implement monetary policy aimed at achieving its inflation target, while also continue to monitor the evolution of the world economy and the domestic situation, to take the necessary measures against possible risks to stability Price and proper functioning of the financial and payment systems."
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The CBDR, which has cut its rate by 125 basis points this year, most recently in May, added that domestic economic activity was "progressing well in the short term," and growth in Gross Domestic Product for this year was projected in the range of 6.5 to 7.0 percent, above the May forecast of around 6.0 percent.
Last week the International Monetary Fund said the country's growth momentum remains strong, with the economy projected to grow by 6.5-7.0 percent this year, propelled by domestic demand as employment recovers and external tailwinds boost disposable income.
The IMF also said the central bank's neutral policy stance is consistent with the objective of price stability but a tighter stance may be needed if stronger-than-anticipated inflation pressures emerge.
The central bank said the country's current account balance is expected to end the year at around 2.0 percent of GDP, the lowest deficit in the last 10 years, and the primary fiscal surplus for 2016 is seen around 0.7 percent of GDP.
"These positive results in the external and fiscal accounts would facilitate the accumulation of reserves and the relative stability of the exchange market," the CBDR said.
Inflation in the Dominican Republic rose to 1.23 percent in October from 0.39 percent in September while core inflation was 1.91 percent, the central bank said.
GDP in the second quarter rose by 2.38 percent from the first quarter for annual growth of 6.2 percent, down from 6.6 percent in the first quarter.
The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic issued the following statement:
"At its monetary policy meeting in November 2015, the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (CBDR) decided to keep its interest rate monetary policy at 5.00% annually.
The decision on the benchmark rate was preceded by a comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic outlook, including the balance of risks around inflation projections, market expectations and relevant international environment for the Dominican economy. It was noted that in October, annual inflation rose to 1.23% and, in cumulative terms, inflation rose to 2.08% that month. In addition, core inflation, which reflects the monetary conditions of the economy, stood at 1.91% yoy. End inflation around the lower limit of the target set in the monetary program for 2015, gradually converging toward the center of the range of 4.0% ± 1.0% in 2016.
In the external context, according to Consensus Forecast, the global economy would grow 2.6% in 2015, accelerating to 2.9% in 2016, driven by the performance of developed countries. United States of America (USA) would experience a growth rate of around 2.4% in 2015 and 2.6% in 2016, while the Euro Area (EA) would expand by 1.5% and 1.7% in those years, respectively. Inflation in the industrialized economies of Europe and the US remain near zero for 2015. By 2016, increase by about 1.7% in the US and 1.1% in the eurozone, in an environment of lower unemployment.
On another note, the outlook for major emerging economies remain lower, highlighting Brazil's recession and the slowdown in the rest of net commodity-exporting economies in Latin America, projecting a contraction of -0.8% in 2015 and recovering gradually in 2016, with moderate growth of 0.2%. The Latin American economic outlook in 2015 is influenced by the estimated contraction of the economies of Brazil (-3.0%) and Venezuela (-8.0%) as well as by the low growth projected for Argentina (1.0%) and slower growth in other major exporters of commodities, such as Chile (2.1%) and Peru (2.8%).
For its part, China's economy would grow 6.8% this year and 6.3% next year, below the average of the last decade, according to projections from the International Monetary Fund. In foreign exchange markets, the trend of appreciation of the US dollar remains as prices of commodities, particularly oil and gold, still below the average of recent years.
Domestically, economic activity is progressing well in the short term. The recent IMF mission evaluating national economic conditions, reiterated that the Dominican Republic is still among the most dynamic economies in the region. In that sense, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projected for 2015 envisages a real growth rate in the range 6.5% -7.0%. Consistent with nominal GDP growth, the private sector lending in local currency grow at an annual rate around 11.0% as of November.
On the external sector, the current account balance would close the year with the lowest deficit in the last ten years, around 2.0% of GDP, lower oil prices and the good performance of tourism revenues, remittances and export processing zones.Regarding fiscal policy, the projected primary surplus remains in the current year while for 2016 envisages a primary surplus around 0.7% of GDP. These positive results in the external and fiscal accounts, would facilitate the accumulation of reserves and the relative stability of the exchange market.
The Central Bank confirms its commitment to implement monetary policy aimed at achieving its inflation target, while also continue to monitor the evolution of the world economy and the domestic situation, to take the necessary measures against possible risks to stability Price and proper functioning of the financial and payment systems."
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Dominican Republic holds rate, inflation heading to target
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This one is OS for sure and since copper is at an all time low that means GUESS WHAT? You guessed it this bad boy is on sale. BUY LOW SELL HIGH right?:clap:
I am interested at 7.50 off the monthly although it could go lower but this my entry. PT would be 63.52 on an ultra long term hold basis.
If you buy this one down here some where you should only be doing it with a long term play perspective as it could be awhile before it goes back up to the high. Do your own DD if you buy it.
If you're a beginner you could purchase this one on the cheap and hold it for awhile to add some money to your account. Time is the best money maker there is. The sooner you get your head around that the more money you will begin to make.:goodjob:
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[text] motif investing motif share price - Google Search
Le won sud-coréen fait les frais de statistiques médiocres
| Nous y voici : jeudi, la Banque centrale européenne devrait annoncer des mesures de soutien supplémentaires à l'économie. Nous pensons qu'elle abaissera le taux de dépôt, augmentera la taille du programme de rachats d'actif et prolongera le QE. Selon nous, l'accroissement/extension de la stimulation a déjà été intégrée par les marchés des actions et des changes, ce qui implique qu'en cas de... |
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FxGrow launches the PIP WARS LIVE TRADING Contest!
FXGROW LAUNCHES THE PIP WARS LIVE TRADING CONTEST!
FxGrow challenges all traders to join its new trading contest the Pip Wars and fight for a piece of the 10,000 USD prize pool on offer.
Starting from the 7th of December 2015 and running until the 8th of January 2016, you can win one of our cash prizes by achieving a large percentage gain on your deposit.
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Registration for the contest is now open, visit: PIP WARS LIVE TRADING CONTEST and complete the short registration form and reserve your place!
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FxGrow challenges all traders to join its new trading contest the Pip Wars and fight for a piece of the 10,000 USD prize pool on offer.
Starting from the 7th of December 2015 and running until the 8th of January 2016, you can win one of our cash prizes by achieving a large percentage gain on your deposit.
CASH PRIZES FOR THE TOP 5 TRADERS
1st place - $5,000
2nd place - $3,000
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4th place - $500
5th place - $500
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Registration for the contest is now open, visit: PIP WARS LIVE TRADING CONTEST and complete the short registration form and reserve your place!
* Terms and conditions apply
FxGrow launches the PIP WARS LIVE TRADING Contest!
[text] Bank of America: The S&P 500 Will Hit 3,500 By 2025 Because Valuation Metrics Show Stocks are Still Undervalued | Valuewalk
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"BoA’s equity strategists have a put in place a modest year-end 2016 target of 2,200 for the S&P 500, around 5% from present levels. The target is based on six valuation and technical models, which suggest a year-end range of between 2,109 and 2,351 for the index.BoA points out in its research that due to the unpredictable nature of the market, it’s difficult to predict accurately where the market will be 12 months from now by using fundamental factors. However, over the long-term research shows that valuations and fundamentals*have historically explained*60-90% of subsequent returns over a 10-year time horizon. BoA’s preferred valuation metric — normalized P/E — has explained 80% to 90% of returns over the subsequent 10 to 11 years.Based on current valuations, analysis suggests compounded annual returns of 8% for the S&P 500 over the next ten years."
"BoA’s equity strategists have a put in place a modest year-end 2016 target of 2,200 for the S&P 500, around 5% from present levels. The target is based on six valuation and technical models, which suggest a year-end range of between 2,109 and 2,351 for the index.BoA points out in its research that due to the unpredictable nature of the market, it’s difficult to predict accurately where the market will be 12 months from now by using fundamental factors. However, over the long-term research shows that valuations and fundamentals*have historically explained*60-90% of subsequent returns over a 10-year time horizon. BoA’s preferred valuation metric — normalized P/E — has explained 80% to 90% of returns over the subsequent 10 to 11 years.Based on current valuations, analysis suggests compounded annual returns of 8% for the S&P 500 over the next ten years."
[text] Bank of America: The S&P 500 Will Hit 3,500 By 2025 Because Valuation Metrics Show Stocks are Still Undervalued | Valuewalk
[text] Quantr.co Wall Street Blog: The median PE Ratio by Market Capitalization for 4888 US-listed stocks.
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"Today we're looking at price to earning ratios and how they vary throughout the market as a whole depending on the size of the company. For this study we analyzed 4888 stocks and found the median value for each specific market capitalisation range."
"Today we're looking at price to earning ratios and how they vary throughout the market as a whole depending on the size of the company. For this study we analyzed 4888 stocks and found the median value for each specific market capitalisation range."
[text] Quantr.co Wall Street Blog: The median PE Ratio by Market Capitalization for 4888 US-listed stocks.
dimanche 29 novembre 2015
This week in monetary policy: Angola, Fiji, Kyrgyzstan, Bulgaria, Australia, India, Canada, Poland and ECB
This week (November 30 through December 5) central banks from 9 countries or jurisdictions are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Angola, Fiji, Kyrgyz Republic, Bulgaria, Australia, India, Canada, Poland and the European Central Bank.
Following table includes the name of the country, the date of the next policy decision, the current policy rate, the result of the last policy decision, the change in the policy rate year to date, the rate one year ago, and the country’s MSCI classification.
The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always accessed by clicking on This Week.
WEEK 49 NOV 30-DEC 5, 2015: COUNTRY DATE RATE LATEST YTD 1 YR AGO MSCI ANGOLA 30-Nov 10.50% 0 150 9.00% FIJI 30-Nov 0.50% 0 0 0.50% KYRGYZSTAN 30-Nov 10.00% 0 -50 10.00% BULGARIA 30-Nov 0.01% 0 -1 0.02% FM AUSTRALIA 1-Dec 2.00% 0 -50 2.50% DM INDIA 1-Dec 6.75% -50 -125 8.00% EM CANADA 2-Dec 0.50% 0 -50 1.00% DM POLAND 2-Dec 1.50% 0 -50 2.00% EM EURO AREA 3-Dec 0.05% 0 0 0.05% DM
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Following table includes the name of the country, the date of the next policy decision, the current policy rate, the result of the last policy decision, the change in the policy rate year to date, the rate one year ago, and the country’s MSCI classification.
The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always accessed by clicking on This Week.
WEEK 49 NOV 30-DEC 5, 2015: COUNTRY DATE RATE LATEST YTD 1 YR AGO MSCI ANGOLA 30-Nov 10.50% 0 150 9.00% FIJI 30-Nov 0.50% 0 0 0.50% KYRGYZSTAN 30-Nov 10.00% 0 -50 10.00% BULGARIA 30-Nov 0.01% 0 -1 0.02% FM AUSTRALIA 1-Dec 2.00% 0 -50 2.50% DM INDIA 1-Dec 6.75% -50 -125 8.00% EM CANADA 2-Dec 0.50% 0 -50 1.00% DM POLAND 2-Dec 1.50% 0 -50 2.00% EM EURO AREA 3-Dec 0.05% 0 0 0.05% DM
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This week in monetary policy: Angola, Fiji, Kyrgyzstan, Bulgaria, Australia, India, Canada, Poland and ECB
Central Bank News Link List - Nov 29, 2015: IMF poised to put Chinese yuan in elite currency basket
Here's today's Central Bank News' link list,click throughif you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.
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- IMF poised to put Chinese yuan in elite currency basket (AFP)
- Bumper weeks as RBA and GDP guide sentiment (SMH)
- ECB discusses two-tiered bank charges, broader bond buys: officials (Reuters)
- Rate cut, more stimulus in store at ECB meet: analysts (AFP)
- India’s RBI unlikely to cut rates further, say experts (Hindustan Times)
- Bank of Canada to keep rates on hold, wait for stronger U.S.: poll (Reuters)
- Other central banks set to act, but Swiss policy cupboard bare (Reuters)
- Turkey moves to reassure on central bank independence (Reuters)
- Russia’s central bank adds yuan to reserve currency basket-sources (Tass)
- Forget Black Friday. It’s Mark Carney’s Super Tuesday! (Guardian)
- Russia to restart loan program 2 weeks after saying it won’t (Bloomberg)
- Egypt’s central bank savior faces tricky balancing act (Reuters)
- Swedish cenbank calls for action as Nordic property market fears grow (Reuters)
- Taiwan central bank expected to maintain rates in December (CNA)
- Hungary’s central bank ‘could fine-tune monetary easing toolkit’ (Reuters)
- Bangladesh likely to leave rates unchanged: report (Daily Star)
- Singapore central bank warns of credit risks for banks as growth slows (Reuters)
- Peru central bank chief sees November inflation above target level (Reuters)
- S.Korea c.bank member sees no need for tightening soon after US hike (Reuters)
- Bank for central African region holds interest rate at 2.45 pct (Reuters)
- Zambia’s kwacha rallies to 2-month high as central bank intervenes (Reuters)
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Central Bank News Link List - Nov 29, 2015: IMF poised to put Chinese yuan in elite currency basket
[text] US Energy & Petroleum Sector on Brink of Massive Bankruptcies, Debt Defaults, and Consolidation | EnergyIntel
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"The US E&P sector could be on the cusp of massive defaults and bankruptcies so staggering they pose a serious threat to the US economy. Without higher oil and gas prices — which few experts foresee in the near future — an over-leveraged, under-hedged US E&P industry faces a truly grim 2016. How bad could things get and when? It increasingly looks like a number of the weakest companies will run out of financial stamina in the first half of next year, and with every dollar of income going to service debt at many heavily leveraged independents, there are waves of others that also face serious trouble if the lower-for-longer oil price scenario extends further."
"The US E&P sector could be on the cusp of massive defaults and bankruptcies so staggering they pose a serious threat to the US economy. Without higher oil and gas prices — which few experts foresee in the near future — an over-leveraged, under-hedged US E&P industry faces a truly grim 2016. How bad could things get and when? It increasingly looks like a number of the weakest companies will run out of financial stamina in the first half of next year, and with every dollar of income going to service debt at many heavily leveraged independents, there are waves of others that also face serious trouble if the lower-for-longer oil price scenario extends further."
[text] US Energy & Petroleum Sector on Brink of Massive Bankruptcies, Debt Defaults, and Consolidation | EnergyIntel
[text] IMF Executive Board meets on Monday to Discuss Yuan Inclusion in SDR -- Here's What You Need to Know | CNBC
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"The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Executive Board meets on Monday to discuss a staff proposal to include China's yuan, or renminbi as it's also known, in an exclusive group of currencies that make up the basket of the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR).The prospects of inclusion, which will represent public acknowledgement of China's heft in the global economy, look pretty high given that the U.S., a major investor in the fund, has backed the move, as has the IMF's Managing Director Christine Lagarde. "
"The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Executive Board meets on Monday to discuss a staff proposal to include China's yuan, or renminbi as it's also known, in an exclusive group of currencies that make up the basket of the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR).The prospects of inclusion, which will represent public acknowledgement of China's heft in the global economy, look pretty high given that the U.S., a major investor in the fund, has backed the move, as has the IMF's Managing Director Christine Lagarde. "
[text] IMF Executive Board meets on Monday to Discuss Yuan Inclusion in SDR -- Here's What You Need to Know | CNBC
[text] Goldman Lists Long USD Short EUR and JPY as Top Trade of 2016 | Valuewalk
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Quote:
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Trade: Go long USD against an equally-weighted basket of EUR and JPY at 100, with a spot target of 110 and a stop loss of 95. Thesis: According to Goldman, the divergence between the Fed and both the ECB and BoJ will continue on into 2016 as the ECB considers more easing and the Fed takes a more hawkish tone. The economic recovery in Europe and Japan is struggling to gain traction while US growth is picking up, the labor market is improving, and domestic demand remains robust. Currencies are particularly sensitive to this divergence pressure, and Goldman believes the dollar has further upside. |
[text] Goldman Lists Long USD Short EUR and JPY as Top Trade of 2016 | Valuewalk
Best Body Building For Skinny Men
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samedi 28 novembre 2015
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Stock Market Trading for Beginners, Part 3 (top dog trading)
Welcome to part 3 of my continuing series: “Stock Market Trading For Beginners.”
I’ve received quite a few requests for more ‘beginner level” training. Therefore I’m working on a series of videos entitled “Stock Market Trading for Beginners.” The first two videos can be seen below.
Even though the title indicates that this is for the stock market, most of what’s in these videos also applies to Forex and futures traders as well.
Watch the videos in order because one builds on the information in the previous ones.
Oh, and LEAVE A COMMENT BELOW letting me know how you liked this video and what you’d like me to cover in the future.
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Click Here To Get Your FREE Five Day Video Trading Course from Top Dog Trading
I’ve received quite a few requests for more ‘beginner level” training. Therefore I’m working on a series of videos entitled “Stock Market Trading for Beginners.” The first two videos can be seen below.
Even though the title indicates that this is for the stock market, most of what’s in these videos also applies to Forex and futures traders as well.
Watch the videos in order because one builds on the information in the previous ones.
Oh, and LEAVE A COMMENT BELOW letting me know how you liked this video and what you’d like me to cover in the future.
The post Stock Market Trading for Beginners, Part 3 appeared first on .
Go to the Top DogTrading Blog
Click Here To Get Your FREE Five Day Video Trading Course from Top Dog Trading
Stock Market Trading for Beginners, Part 3 (top dog trading)
L'EUR/USD stagne sur fond de Thanksgiving, volatilité implicite en hausse
| L'EUR/USD stagne depuis deux jours en raison des vacances de Thanksgiving. Les marchés américains ouvrent ce vendredi, mais pour une séance écourtée. La montée des incertitudes quant à l'issue de la réunion de la BCE du 3 décembre affecte le marché des produits dérivés. La volatilité implicite à une semaine sur l'EUR/USD s'est envolée pour atteindre des niveaux inédits depuis juillet, lorsque la... |
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L'EUR/USD stagne sur fond de Thanksgiving, volatilité implicite en hausse
Colombia raises rate 3rd month in a row as inflation rises
Colombia's central bank raised its policy rate for the third month in a row as "inflation expectations have increased and the risk of a slowdown in domestic demand, beyond that which is consistent with the decline registered in national income, has moderated."
The Central Bank of Colombia raised its benchmark intervention rate by a further 25 basis points to 5.50 percent, a move that was largely expected, and has now raised the rate by a total of 100 points this year following increases in September and October.
The central bank's board, which also confirmed its inflation target of 3.0 percent, plus/minus 1 percentage point, noted that inflation in October had exceeded its projections and inflationary expectations had also risen.
Colombia's headline inflation rate rose to 5.89 percent in October from 5.35 percent in September and inflation expectations for one and two years were 4.4 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively, while those reflected in public bonds with maturities of 2, 3 and 5-years are over 4.0 percent, the bank said.
The acceleration in inflation is mainly due to the pass-through to consumer prices from the depreciation of the peso and high food prices while the central bank said data shows that domestic demand, particularly for retail sales, indicates a more "dynamic domestic demand than expected."
Industrial production is also showing a positive trend, the bank said, adding that the monthly indicator of economic activity suggests growth of around 4.0 percent for the third quarter.
The central bank's staff maintained its forecast for 2015 growth of between 2.4 percent and 3.4 percent, with 3.0 percent the most likely outcome. Last month the bank raised its growth forecast.
Colombia's Gross Domestic Product expanded by an annual 3.0 percent in the second quarter, up from 2.8 percent in the first quarter.
The peso started depreciating in July 2014, in line with the decline in crude oil prices, and fell to a low around 3,239 to the U.S. dollar in mid-August. Since then, the peso has firmed slightly, trading at 3,108 today, but still down 23.5 percent since the start of the year.
The Central Bank of Colombia issued the following statement:
"The Board of Directors of Banco de la República at today’s meeting decided to increase the benchmark interest rate by 25 bp to 5.50%. For this decision, the Board mainly took into account the following aspects:Annual consumer inflation in October stood at 5.89%, and the average of the four measures of core inflation posted at 5.11%. These results exceeded the projections of the Central Bank's technical staff and the average of the market. Measures of inflation expectations increased: those of analysts to one and two years registered 4.4% and 3.6%, respectively, while those embedded in public debt bonds to 2, 3, and 5 years are above 4.0%.
In summary, inflation expectations have increased and the risk of a slowdown in domestic demand, beyond that which is consistent with the decline registered in national income, has moderated. In order to ensure the convergence of inflation to the 3.0% target, the Board of Directors decided to increase the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, thus continuing the tightening of the monetary policy which started last September.
The Board reiterates its commitment to the inflation target and continues to carefully monitor the behavior and projections of economic activity and inflation, as well as that of asset markets and the international situation."
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The Central Bank of Colombia raised its benchmark intervention rate by a further 25 basis points to 5.50 percent, a move that was largely expected, and has now raised the rate by a total of 100 points this year following increases in September and October.
The central bank's board, which also confirmed its inflation target of 3.0 percent, plus/minus 1 percentage point, noted that inflation in October had exceeded its projections and inflationary expectations had also risen.
Colombia's headline inflation rate rose to 5.89 percent in October from 5.35 percent in September and inflation expectations for one and two years were 4.4 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively, while those reflected in public bonds with maturities of 2, 3 and 5-years are over 4.0 percent, the bank said.
The acceleration in inflation is mainly due to the pass-through to consumer prices from the depreciation of the peso and high food prices while the central bank said data shows that domestic demand, particularly for retail sales, indicates a more "dynamic domestic demand than expected."
Industrial production is also showing a positive trend, the bank said, adding that the monthly indicator of economic activity suggests growth of around 4.0 percent for the third quarter.
The central bank's staff maintained its forecast for 2015 growth of between 2.4 percent and 3.4 percent, with 3.0 percent the most likely outcome. Last month the bank raised its growth forecast.
Colombia's Gross Domestic Product expanded by an annual 3.0 percent in the second quarter, up from 2.8 percent in the first quarter.
The peso started depreciating in July 2014, in line with the decline in crude oil prices, and fell to a low around 3,239 to the U.S. dollar in mid-August. Since then, the peso has firmed slightly, trading at 3,108 today, but still down 23.5 percent since the start of the year.
The Central Bank of Colombia issued the following statement:
"The Board of Directors of Banco de la República at today’s meeting decided to increase the benchmark interest rate by 25 bp to 5.50%. For this decision, the Board mainly took into account the following aspects:Annual consumer inflation in October stood at 5.89%, and the average of the four measures of core inflation posted at 5.11%. These results exceeded the projections of the Central Bank's technical staff and the average of the market. Measures of inflation expectations increased: those of analysts to one and two years registered 4.4% and 3.6%, respectively, while those embedded in public debt bonds to 2, 3, and 5 years are above 4.0%.
- Acceleration of inflation so far this year is mainly explained by the pass-through of nominal depreciation to consumer prices and the increase in the costs of imported raw materials, as well as by the lower dynamics in food supply.
- Pass-through of part of the devaluation of the peso to consumer prices and a strong presence of El Niño have slowed down convergence of inflation to the target, due to its direct impact on prices and inflation expectations, as well as to the probable triggering of indexation mechanisms.
- The new figures for the third quarter, particularly for retail sales, suggest a more dynamic domestic demand than expected. Net exports would have subtracted from growth. On the supply side, industrial production shows a positive trend and the indicators of shipping and production of cement suggest a favorable dynamics for construction. The monthly indicator of economic activity released by DANE (ISE) suggests a growth rate of around 4.0% in the third quarter. With this information and new data of economic activity for October, the technical staff maintained the growth forecast for 2015 between 2.4% and 3.4%, with 3.0% as the most likely figure.
- The increase in inflation expectations has considerably reduced the real policy interest rate and those of the financial system. At the same time, domestic credit growth remains above the pace of expansion of output.
- Figures for global economic activity continue to reflect a weak dynamics of external demand, below that recorded for 2014. In the United States, domestic demand grows at favorable rates, while in the euro zone it is recovering slowly. China continues slowing down, and the major Latin American economies exhibit low growth rates or output contractions.
- The probability of the FED increasing its benchmark interest rate in December rose and the long-term bond rates increased. The US dollar appreciated and the prices of major commodities declined.
- The price of oil was below the expectations of the technical staff. The fall in the terms of trade recorded throughout the year has deteriorated national income, largely explaining the higher level of the exchange rate vis-à-vis the US dollar.
In summary, inflation expectations have increased and the risk of a slowdown in domestic demand, beyond that which is consistent with the decline registered in national income, has moderated. In order to ensure the convergence of inflation to the 3.0% target, the Board of Directors decided to increase the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, thus continuing the tightening of the monetary policy which started last September.
The Board reiterates its commitment to the inflation target and continues to carefully monitor the behavior and projections of economic activity and inflation, as well as that of asset markets and the international situation."
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Colombia raises rate 3rd month in a row as inflation rises
Help me start trading
Hello, I am a 14 year old looking in to learning how to profit and trade in the market. I unfortunately do not have an insane start as far as funds go, with an Ameritrade account containing a balance of $600. I am pretty much a brand new beginner with only around 12 hours of research under my belt. I was looking in to Tim Sykes but saw many people were saying Informed Trader had taught them more about trading than his strategy. I would like to learn how to trade starting with a low account and how to eventually become self-sufficient in doing so. If anyone can help teach me some of the terminology and eventually some of the more advanced information I would be greatly appreciative.
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[text] China Plunges Most In Three Months, Pushing "Black Friday" Into The Red For Global Stocks | Zero Hedge
http://ift.tt/1Ng0MCu
"After several months of artificial, centrally-planned calm in Chinese markets, where "malicious sellers" found out the hard way the Politburo means business, overnight the relative quiet in Chinese stocks since August broke with a bang when the Shanghai Composite tumbled as much 6.1% before closing down 5.5%, the biggest drop in three months and the largest weekly loss since the depth of the Chinese rout in mid-August while a gauge of Chinese volatility surged from the lowest level since March.*"
"After several months of artificial, centrally-planned calm in Chinese markets, where "malicious sellers" found out the hard way the Politburo means business, overnight the relative quiet in Chinese stocks since August broke with a bang when the Shanghai Composite tumbled as much 6.1% before closing down 5.5%, the biggest drop in three months and the largest weekly loss since the depth of the Chinese rout in mid-August while a gauge of Chinese volatility surged from the lowest level since March.*"
[text] China Plunges Most In Three Months, Pushing "Black Friday" Into The Red For Global Stocks | Zero Hedge
[text] The Soaring Value of Vintage Ferrari's | ValueWalk
http://ift.tt/1Ng0NGz
"According to the Hagerty Collector Car Index the majority of the market has stagnated. While German (BMW, Porsche, Mercedes-Benz), British (Bentley, Rolls Royce), and American (Ford GT) cars have stagnated, Ferraris have skyrocketed. In the last five years, the average “excellent” condition, vintage Ferrari to hit the auction block has nearly tripled in value."
"According to the Hagerty Collector Car Index the majority of the market has stagnated. While German (BMW, Porsche, Mercedes-Benz), British (Bentley, Rolls Royce), and American (Ford GT) cars have stagnated, Ferraris have skyrocketed. In the last five years, the average “excellent” condition, vintage Ferrari to hit the auction block has nearly tripled in value."
[text] The Soaring Value of Vintage Ferrari's | ValueWalk
True Best Natural Bodybuilding
Alpha XTRM Pain Tolerance A low threshold for pain is another reason people easily quit bodybuilding and start to deem it too hard. By far the weakest point are the wrists and the forearms. The forearms are volatile and very quick to burn and since most upper body bodybuilding exercises engage the forearms in some way, they are quick to protest. It takes many months of mental conditioning before you are able to just ignore the pain and just get on with it.
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True Best Natural Bodybuilding
True Best Natural Bodybuilding
Alpha XTRM Pain Tolerance A low threshold for pain is another reason people easily quit bodybuilding and start to deem it too hard. By far the weakest point are the wrists and the forearms. The forearms are volatile and very quick to burn and since most upper body bodybuilding exercises engage the forearms in some way, they are quick to protest. It takes many months of mental conditioning before you are able to just ignore the pain and just get on with it.
http://ift.tt/1gh0ZIg
http://ift.tt/1gh0ZIg
True Best Natural Bodybuilding
jeudi 26 novembre 2015
Thanksgiving Market Commentary from GrokTrade
Here's a fun video with some technical commentary on the monthly charts that traders might appreciate. To traders in the US, Happy Thanksgiving! :cheer:
Thanksgiving Market Commentary from GrokTrade
Earn Money At Home In The Easiest Way
Free Money System It's important that you take time to research the subject concerned. Visit your local library, buy magazines and books on the topic, and surf the net to find Websites where you find out as much as you can about it. Then concentrate on clearly and concisely writing out your plan.
http://ift.tt/1LAM7wb
http://ift.tt/1LAM7wb
Earn Money At Home In The Easiest Way
Moldova holds rate, impact of past hikes still taking effect
Moldova's central bank kept its key policy rates unchanged, including the base rate at 19.5 percent, saying this year's rate increases are still working their way through the economy and today's decision is aimed at anchoring inflation expectations and restoring inflation close to the target.
The National Bank of Moldova (NBM), which has raised its rate by 13 percentage points this year, added that it will continue to offer banks liquidity through 14-day repurchase operations at a fixed rate equal to the base rate plus a margin of 0.25 percentage points.
Moldova's headline inflation rate rose to a 2015-high of 13.2 percent in October from 12.6 percent in September with risks to inflation mainly from a depreciation of the leu currency with the effect that inflation is "temporarily"breaching the bank's upper limit of 6.5 percent.
The NBM, which targets inflation of 5.0 percent plus/minus 1.5 percentage points, expects the pressure on inflation to persistent in future quarters due to unfavorable weather and the comparison with low inflation last year.
Last month the central bank said it first expects inflation to return to its target range by the third quarter of 2017, but omitted this forecast in today's statement.
Moldova, a former Soviet state located between Romania and the Ukraine, has seen its currency depreciate since mid-2011 and tumbled in January this year. But since late September the leu has been relatively stable and was trading at 20.09 to the U.S. dollar today, down 22.4 percent this year.
The National Bank of Moldova issued the following statement:
"Within the meeting of the 26 November 2015, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Moldova adopted the following decision by unanimous vote:
1. To maintain the base rate applied on main short-term monetary policy operations at the current level of 19.5 percent annually;
2. To maintain the interest rates:
- on overnight loans at the current level of 22.5 percent annually;
- on overnight deposits at the current level of 16.5 percent annually.
The annual inflation rate reached in October 2015 the level of 13.2 percent or by 0.6 percentage points more compared to the previous month, mainly due to higher contribution from core inflation and food prices by 4.8 and 4.7 percentage points, respectively. The contribution of regulated prices was slightly higher than the previous month (3.4 percentage points).
In October 2015, the annual rate of core inflation1 was 14.1 percent, increasing by 0.5 percentage points compared to September 2015.
Exports and imports decreased by 16.6 and 23.4 percent in the first nine months of 2015, compared to the same period of the previous year, while the industrial output increased by 4.0 percent.
Transport of goods decreased by 15.2 percent during January - September 2015 compared to the same period of the previous year.
In terms of consumer demand, the annual average real wage growth in the economy in September 2015 recorded a slight improvement, constituting minus 2.3 percent compared to minus 2.7 percent recorded in the previous month. Money transfers to individuals through the banks of the Republic of Moldova fell by 32.8 percent in January-October 2015 and by 33.9 percent in October 2015 compared with the same period of 2014.
At the end of October 2015, the balance of loans granted to economy decreased by 13.3 percent and that of deposits by 2.4 percent compared to the end of October 2014.
In October 2015, the average interest rates applied by banks to loans and deposits in national currency recorded an upward trend. Thus, the average annual interest rate on the loan portfolio in national currency increased by 0.18 percentage points compared to the previous month, constituting 12.89 percent. The average interest rate for deposits in MDL has increased by 0.54 percentage points versus the previous month, registering a level of 13.24 percent.
The monetary policy continues to be affected by the complexity of risk balance, with a prevalence of inflationary risks. The external risks to inflation remain significant, given the weak economic activity of the euro area countries and the recession faced by the Russian Federation - the main external trade partners of the Republic of Moldova. The external risks are propagated through the remittances channel in favour of population and the external trade, leading to lower foreign currency income of population and domestic exporters in the short term. This may subsequently influence inflation. The escalation of geopolitical tension in the region could cause additional inflationary pressures.
The situation in the domestic banking system and the incentive fiscal policy, with the prevalence of social element in the structure of public expenditures contribute to the relatively high level of consumption, which influences the dynamics of consumer prices as from the end of the previous year. Risks to inflation associated mainly with the depreciation of the national currency since the beginning of this year, which will subsequently determine the IPC in the future periods, through the prices of imported goods and tariffs of regulated services, higher excise duty on some categories of goods and later by second-round effects to leave temporarily the upper limit of the variation range of ± 1.5 percentage point from the inflation target of 5.0 percent. Inflationary pressures are expected to be persistent in the following quarters, including due to unfavourable agri-meteorological conditions of this year and the low base of comparison in the previous year.
Against this background, within the meeting held on 26 November 2015, the members of the Executive Board of the NBM decided by unanimous vote to maintain the policy rate at the level of 19.5 percent annually. This decision of the Executive Board of the NBM is reasoned by the fact that the monetary policy measures adopted by the NBM since the beginning of the current year until now are still to act through different transmission channels in the national economy, including by influencing the interest rates on loans and deposits, so that exerting further effects on the inflation development.
The decisions of the Executive Board of the NBM of 26 November 2015 are aimed at anchoring inflation expectations in the context of restoring and maintaining the inflation rate close to the target of 5.0 percent over the medium-term, with a possible deviation of ± 1.5 percentage points.
In order to support the proper functioning of the interbank money market, the NBM will continue to manage firmly the liquidity excess through sterilization operations, according to the announced schedule.
National Bank will continue to offer banks liquidity, according to the schedule announced for 2015 - 2016, through REPO operations with the term of 14 days, at a fixed rate equal to the base rate of the National Bank plus a margin of 0.25 points percentage.
NBM will further monitor and anticipate the domestic and international economic environment developments, including household consumption dynamics, remittances and changing foreign trade conditions, so that by the flexibility of operational framework specific for the inflation targeting strategy to ensure price stability in the medium term
The next meeting of the Executive Board of the NBM on monetary policy will take place on 30 December 2015, according to the announced schedule."
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Go to Original Story
The National Bank of Moldova (NBM), which has raised its rate by 13 percentage points this year, added that it will continue to offer banks liquidity through 14-day repurchase operations at a fixed rate equal to the base rate plus a margin of 0.25 percentage points.
Moldova's headline inflation rate rose to a 2015-high of 13.2 percent in October from 12.6 percent in September with risks to inflation mainly from a depreciation of the leu currency with the effect that inflation is "temporarily"breaching the bank's upper limit of 6.5 percent.
The NBM, which targets inflation of 5.0 percent plus/minus 1.5 percentage points, expects the pressure on inflation to persistent in future quarters due to unfavorable weather and the comparison with low inflation last year.
Last month the central bank said it first expects inflation to return to its target range by the third quarter of 2017, but omitted this forecast in today's statement.
Moldova, a former Soviet state located between Romania and the Ukraine, has seen its currency depreciate since mid-2011 and tumbled in January this year. But since late September the leu has been relatively stable and was trading at 20.09 to the U.S. dollar today, down 22.4 percent this year.
The National Bank of Moldova issued the following statement:
"Within the meeting of the 26 November 2015, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Moldova adopted the following decision by unanimous vote:
1. To maintain the base rate applied on main short-term monetary policy operations at the current level of 19.5 percent annually;
2. To maintain the interest rates:
- on overnight loans at the current level of 22.5 percent annually;
- on overnight deposits at the current level of 16.5 percent annually.
The annual inflation rate reached in October 2015 the level of 13.2 percent or by 0.6 percentage points more compared to the previous month, mainly due to higher contribution from core inflation and food prices by 4.8 and 4.7 percentage points, respectively. The contribution of regulated prices was slightly higher than the previous month (3.4 percentage points).
In October 2015, the annual rate of core inflation1 was 14.1 percent, increasing by 0.5 percentage points compared to September 2015.
Exports and imports decreased by 16.6 and 23.4 percent in the first nine months of 2015, compared to the same period of the previous year, while the industrial output increased by 4.0 percent.
Transport of goods decreased by 15.2 percent during January - September 2015 compared to the same period of the previous year.
In terms of consumer demand, the annual average real wage growth in the economy in September 2015 recorded a slight improvement, constituting minus 2.3 percent compared to minus 2.7 percent recorded in the previous month. Money transfers to individuals through the banks of the Republic of Moldova fell by 32.8 percent in January-October 2015 and by 33.9 percent in October 2015 compared with the same period of 2014.
At the end of October 2015, the balance of loans granted to economy decreased by 13.3 percent and that of deposits by 2.4 percent compared to the end of October 2014.
In October 2015, the average interest rates applied by banks to loans and deposits in national currency recorded an upward trend. Thus, the average annual interest rate on the loan portfolio in national currency increased by 0.18 percentage points compared to the previous month, constituting 12.89 percent. The average interest rate for deposits in MDL has increased by 0.54 percentage points versus the previous month, registering a level of 13.24 percent.
The monetary policy continues to be affected by the complexity of risk balance, with a prevalence of inflationary risks. The external risks to inflation remain significant, given the weak economic activity of the euro area countries and the recession faced by the Russian Federation - the main external trade partners of the Republic of Moldova. The external risks are propagated through the remittances channel in favour of population and the external trade, leading to lower foreign currency income of population and domestic exporters in the short term. This may subsequently influence inflation. The escalation of geopolitical tension in the region could cause additional inflationary pressures.
The situation in the domestic banking system and the incentive fiscal policy, with the prevalence of social element in the structure of public expenditures contribute to the relatively high level of consumption, which influences the dynamics of consumer prices as from the end of the previous year. Risks to inflation associated mainly with the depreciation of the national currency since the beginning of this year, which will subsequently determine the IPC in the future periods, through the prices of imported goods and tariffs of regulated services, higher excise duty on some categories of goods and later by second-round effects to leave temporarily the upper limit of the variation range of ± 1.5 percentage point from the inflation target of 5.0 percent. Inflationary pressures are expected to be persistent in the following quarters, including due to unfavourable agri-meteorological conditions of this year and the low base of comparison in the previous year.
Against this background, within the meeting held on 26 November 2015, the members of the Executive Board of the NBM decided by unanimous vote to maintain the policy rate at the level of 19.5 percent annually. This decision of the Executive Board of the NBM is reasoned by the fact that the monetary policy measures adopted by the NBM since the beginning of the current year until now are still to act through different transmission channels in the national economy, including by influencing the interest rates on loans and deposits, so that exerting further effects on the inflation development.
The decisions of the Executive Board of the NBM of 26 November 2015 are aimed at anchoring inflation expectations in the context of restoring and maintaining the inflation rate close to the target of 5.0 percent over the medium-term, with a possible deviation of ± 1.5 percentage points.
In order to support the proper functioning of the interbank money market, the NBM will continue to manage firmly the liquidity excess through sterilization operations, according to the announced schedule.
National Bank will continue to offer banks liquidity, according to the schedule announced for 2015 - 2016, through REPO operations with the term of 14 days, at a fixed rate equal to the base rate of the National Bank plus a margin of 0.25 points percentage.
NBM will further monitor and anticipate the domestic and international economic environment developments, including household consumption dynamics, remittances and changing foreign trade conditions, so that by the flexibility of operational framework specific for the inflation targeting strategy to ensure price stability in the medium term
The next meeting of the Executive Board of the NBM on monetary policy will take place on 30 December 2015, according to the announced schedule."
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Go to Original Story
Moldova holds rate, impact of past hikes still taking effect
Recul généralisé du dollar sur fond de données mitigées
| Les places européennes ont pâti de la montée des tensions géopolitiques hier, après la destruction d'un avion de chasse russe par la Turquie près de la frontière syrienne. Le DAX a plié de 2% avant de regagner une partie de terrain perdu, pour clôturer en baisse de 1.43%. De même, l'Euro Stoxx 600 plus large est tombé de 2.04% pour terminer en recul de 1.20%. Les Etats-Unis ont publié des... |
|
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Recul généralisé du dollar sur fond de données mitigées
Volumes faibles pour Thanksgiving
| La séance asiatique a été marquée par des volumes extrêmement maigres, mis à part sur le dollar australien, les traders se préparant à Thanksgiving. L'EUR/USD a piétiné dans un range de 10 pips entre 1.0615 et 1.0625. De même, le GBP/USD a évolué latéralement entre 1.5115 et 1.5131. De plus, le calendrier économique de ce jeudi est peu chargé. * A Sydney, l'AUD/USD a perdu 0.60% après la... |
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En savoir plus sur le broker forex ACM (Advanced Currency Markets)
Volumes faibles pour Thanksgiving
Earn Money At Home In The Easiest Way
Free Money System It's important that you take time to research the subject concerned. Visit your local library, buy magazines and books on the topic, and surf the net to find Websites where you find out as much as you can about it. Then concentrate on clearly and concisely writing out your plan.
http://ift.tt/1LAM7wb
http://ift.tt/1LAM7wb
Earn Money At Home In The Easiest Way
mercredi 25 novembre 2015
Brazil holds rate, but 2 Copom members want 50 bps hike
Brazil's central bank left its benchmark Selic rate steady at 14.25 percent but two members of the eight-member policy committee Copom voted to raise the rate by 50 basis points, a sign the rate may be raised at the next meeting in January 2016.
The Central Bank of Brazil, which halted its tightening campaign in July after raising the rate by 700 basis points since April 2013, said Copom members Sidnei Correa Marques and Tony Volpon had voted to raise the rate to 14.75 percent while the other six members, including Chairman Alexandre Tombini, voted to retain the rate.
In a brief statement, the central bank said Copom had decided to maintain the rate in light of the "macroeconomic scenario and the outlook for inflation," omitting last month's reference to maintaining the rate for "a sufficiently long period" to reach its inflation goal.
However, in its October statement, the central bank said that it would be "vigilant" in achieving its inflation goal.
Since halting its tightening campaign in July, Brazil's inflation rate has continued to accelerate, hitting 10.28 percent in mid-November - a 12-year high - from 9.93 in October and 9.56 percent in July.
The central bank's Nov. 16 survey of economists showed that they expect inflation to end this year at 10.04 percent before easing to 6.5 percent next year, up from the previous survey of 9.99 percent inflation for this year and 6.47 percent for 2016.
But while inflation has risen, Brazil's economy is in recession with Gross Domestic Product in the second quarter contracting by 1.9 percent following a 0.7 percent fall in the first quarter. On an annual basis, GDP shrank by 2.6 percent, the fifth quarter in a row of declining output.
The central bank targets inflation at a midpoint of 4.50 percent, within a 2.50 percent to 6.50 percent range, and has pledged to reach its inflation goal by late 2016.
Brazil's real has been depreciating since September 2014 but has firmed since late September. Today the real was trading at 3.74 to the U.S. dollar, down 28.9 percent this year.
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Go to Original Story
The Central Bank of Brazil, which halted its tightening campaign in July after raising the rate by 700 basis points since April 2013, said Copom members Sidnei Correa Marques and Tony Volpon had voted to raise the rate to 14.75 percent while the other six members, including Chairman Alexandre Tombini, voted to retain the rate.
In a brief statement, the central bank said Copom had decided to maintain the rate in light of the "macroeconomic scenario and the outlook for inflation," omitting last month's reference to maintaining the rate for "a sufficiently long period" to reach its inflation goal.
However, in its October statement, the central bank said that it would be "vigilant" in achieving its inflation goal.
Since halting its tightening campaign in July, Brazil's inflation rate has continued to accelerate, hitting 10.28 percent in mid-November - a 12-year high - from 9.93 in October and 9.56 percent in July.
The central bank's Nov. 16 survey of economists showed that they expect inflation to end this year at 10.04 percent before easing to 6.5 percent next year, up from the previous survey of 9.99 percent inflation for this year and 6.47 percent for 2016.
But while inflation has risen, Brazil's economy is in recession with Gross Domestic Product in the second quarter contracting by 1.9 percent following a 0.7 percent fall in the first quarter. On an annual basis, GDP shrank by 2.6 percent, the fifth quarter in a row of declining output.
The central bank targets inflation at a midpoint of 4.50 percent, within a 2.50 percent to 6.50 percent range, and has pledged to reach its inflation goal by late 2016.
Brazil's real has been depreciating since September 2014 but has firmed since late September. Today the real was trading at 3.74 to the U.S. dollar, down 28.9 percent this year.
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Go to Original Story
Brazil holds rate, but 2 Copom members want 50 bps hike
Silk
Hello, I'm sharing the SILK Free EA: http://ift.tt/1SlqS78
The author of the EA says that the reccomended Spread allowed is 10 (5 digits broker), but i have tested it with higher spread and it is also good. It has very low risky strategy (and also profits are low, but green pips) and works on H1 TimeFrame.
This is the free version where the lot size is fixed to 0.01. The paid version allow to change lot size, check: http://ift.tt/1IbHAp2
I have backtested it from 01/01/2010 to 29/06/2011 on EURUSD H1 with spread 19 (5 digits).
I attach backtest: StrategyTester.rar
The author of the EA says that the reccomended Spread allowed is 10 (5 digits broker), but i have tested it with higher spread and it is also good. It has very low risky strategy (and also profits are low, but green pips) and works on H1 TimeFrame.
This is the free version where the lot size is fixed to 0.01. The paid version allow to change lot size, check: http://ift.tt/1IbHAp2
I have backtested it from 01/01/2010 to 29/06/2011 on EURUSD H1 with spread 19 (5 digits).
I attach backtest: StrategyTester.rar
Silk
Buying what people must use everyday
SUNE is in play right now and on sale. Have a look.
Good luck with your investing and trading:tiphat:
Good luck with your investing and trading:tiphat:
Buying what people must use everyday
Pedigree EA best EA on market for sale
I decided that I will sell the best EA on market, Pedigree EA version 9.00 stealth and version 9.01 not stealth, as a package. Who is interested should p.m. me.
I will put some pictures later. Busy now trading.
Cheers Hermes
I will put some pictures later. Busy now trading.
Cheers Hermes
Pedigree EA best EA on market for sale
Gold bot
Hello, do anyone have this EA? GOLD BOT. Author's page: http://ift.tt/1Nt69Aa
The Expert Advisor has been developed for GOLD M30 based on High/Low and pending orders. If the signal is not satisfied for 13 bars, a pending order are canceled.
It has been backtested on over 7-year tick data with 99% quality of modelling. The screenshots attached feature the robustness test by Monte Carlo analysis with 200 simulations.
A broker with a small spread and slippage is recommended for better performance. No need to set up any parameters, these settings are optimized.
Check my other products. They work well in combination with GOLD PEMA attached backtest with portfolio.
There is no need in using a large account. I recommend trading from 500 USD with 0.01 or 0.02 lots.
Features
Each deal is protected by stop orders (Stop Loss and Take Profit)
Both a fixed lot and a free margin percentage are used
No martingale, no grid
No excessive consumption of CPU resources
The long-term timeframe is M30
User-friendly settings
60% winning trades
The Expert Advisor has been developed for GOLD M30 based on High/Low and pending orders. If the signal is not satisfied for 13 bars, a pending order are canceled.
It has been backtested on over 7-year tick data with 99% quality of modelling. The screenshots attached feature the robustness test by Monte Carlo analysis with 200 simulations.
A broker with a small spread and slippage is recommended for better performance. No need to set up any parameters, these settings are optimized.
Check my other products. They work well in combination with GOLD PEMA attached backtest with portfolio.
There is no need in using a large account. I recommend trading from 500 USD with 0.01 or 0.02 lots.
Features
Each deal is protected by stop orders (Stop Loss and Take Profit)
Both a fixed lot and a free margin percentage are used
No martingale, no grid
No excessive consumption of CPU resources
The long-term timeframe is M30
User-friendly settings
60% winning trades
Gold bot
Sitting Ducks in China's Bathtub, an Overture to World War III? (Doug Casey)
Originally Published by Casey Research
It’s always been true, as Bourne said, that “war is the health of the State.” But it’s especially true when economic times get tough. That’s because governments like to blame their problems on outsiders; even an imagined foreign threat tends to unify opinions around those of the leaders. Since economies around the world are all weakening, and political leaders are all similar in essential mindset, there’s good reason to believe the trend towards World War III is accelerating.View the Casey Research Guide to Crisis Investing on InformedTrades
Many politicians and pundits in the U.S. blame “those damn Chinese” for taking “our jobs” by filling Walmart with tons of cheap goods, and the swarthy ragheads for making the price of oil too high (usually, but now too low).
The Russians, the Iranians, the Taliban (who will soon reconquer Afghanistan) and ISIS (which is carving out a new nation-state from the ruins of Syria and Iraq) are permanent members on the list of Bad Boys.
But now, since the Obama regime has decided to “pivot to the East,” you can underline China’s name on that list.
The “pivot” being the U.S. government’s new focus on meddling in Asia, as opposed to meddling in the Middle East and Europe. U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter says the U.S. will be the principal security power in the Pacific “for decades to come.” I’m sure the locals, including the Chinese, were thrilled to hear that.
It’s said that the U.S. government has combat troops (or advisors, as highly trained special ops guys are usually euphemistically termed) in about 100 countries. It’s hard to keep track of their latest “intervention”…although “interference” is a better word. Note that I said “they,” not “us,” in reference to Washington. The city has a life of its own and its interests are not necessarily those of the country it rules.
Let’s see…sending arms to a puppet government in Kiev to help put down a secession in Donetsk and Lugansk. Sending jets, and now ground troops, to Syria, which will quite possibly create an incident with the Russians. 150 soldiers to Uganda to fight the Lord’s Resistance Army and 300 to Cameroon to fight Boko Haram. And more troops to Iraq and Afghanistan to help out our “allies.” For the moment, they’re the best allies money can buy.
It’s hard to keep track of them all, with something new almost every week. But, on the bright side, war is nature’s way of teaching Americans geography.
So, with that in mind, we now have to learn where the Spratly Islands are. Let’s start with a map.
Map of the South China Sea Region (Photo: John Bretschneider)
You’ll note the red line. In 2012 China decided that the entire area, right up to the shorelines of Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei, was part of its economic zone. The governments of all those countries also have claims to parts of the South China Sea, and the Spratlys in particular. You’ll also note the Paracels, another zone of contention, between China and Vietnam.
Believe it or not, from 1956 to 1972 (when he was jailed for his efforts) a Filipino businessman, one Tomás Cloma, also attempted to claim part of the Spratlys, and make it an independent country, Freedomland. This caught my attention, in that I was (very marginally) involved in three other island independence movements in the ‘70s: Nagriamel, Abaco, and Minerva. Those, however, are stories (all a mixture of tragedy, comedy, and pathos) for another day.
Until very recent times, the Spratlys were best known as a hazard to navigation, with about 750 islets, reefs, and sandbars, total land area about 1.5 square miles, spread over about 160,000 square miles of the South China Sea.
I’ve never been to the Spratlys. But their potential value is clear. It’s said up to 30% of the world’s fish catch comes from the South China Sea. And, almost needless to say, it’s conjectured that the area contains a lot of oil.
So, you’re probably asking yourself, “What is that to me?” The answer should logically be “Nothing, really, unless it’s a question on a quiz show.”
But the U.S. government, although it, as usual, has no dog in the fight, has decided to get involved. The catalyst for it acting now is that China is in the process of transforming at least seven reefs into usably large artificial islands, several with long airstrips.
I’ve looked at the history of who has used, and claimed ownership, of the islands over the centuries. All the adjacent countries have somewhat reasonable-sounding claims. And the Taiwanese, Filipinos, Malaysians and Vietnamese each have a military presence on one or more of the Spratlys. But only the recent Chinese efforts have drawn the U.S. government’s attention. Recently, they sent a guided missile destroyer, the USS Lassen, within the 12-mile limit of Subi Reef, which the Chinese are currently expanding. Reports are conflicting whether the ship was just innocently passing through, or trying to create a precedent.
I’d like to ask, how do you, I mean you personally, feel about that? I’d like to know. Scores of millions of Asian locals, who’d previously never even heard of the islands, and certainly can’t find them on a map, are getting worked up because their governments told them the islands were “theirs.” And now the U.S. is further complicating the matter. But here’s my take.
The Chinese seem quite out of line claiming the whole South China Sea as their economic zone. Shame on them. But how is that the problem of the U.S.? It’s the problem of the locals. Should the Chinese be able to build artificial islands? That’s a somewhat different question. I’d say, why not? Disputed or unclaimed land belongs to the person who uses it.
One thing is for sure: the U.S. government is asking for trouble flying military aircraft off the coast of China and sailing warships into waters they claim. How would the U.S. react if Chinese planes and warships were often seen off the West coast? Or if the Santa Catalina or San Juan islands developed independence movements that the Chinese backed?
The U.S. government feels pretty bold about its intrusion into the South China Sea, since no other government has a naval force even remotely comparable to its 12 aircraft carrier groups. But that boldness is foolish and unjustified. I’ve said for many years that those carriers are exactly analogous to battleships before World War II, or cavalry before World War I. They’re essentially sitting ducks, highly vulnerable to all manner of cheap, accurate missiles, both cruise and ballistic, that could swarm them en masse.
It will be a huge embarrassment to Americans (but a treat to divers a couple generations hence) when they’re sunk, and sprouting barnacles like the Japanese fleet in Truk Lagoon.
The U.S. knows that it’s China’s backyard, and they could sink any U.S. taskforce if they choose to. But they probably won’t. Why start a war when your enemy has a superior military, but you are growing your economy several times faster than he is? It makes more sense to wait…so it’s likely to remain a Mexican standoff, as opposed to an overture to World War III. But these things have a way of escalating unpredictably. In any event, it makes no sense to go to the other side of the globe just to provoke someone.
In the meantime, the U.S. carrier groups are prestigious, and great for sticking the U.S. government’s nose into far-off places where it’s not welcome. But they’re hugely expensive, at about $6 billion a ship, plus another billion or two per copy for its half-dozen escorts, plus another $200 million for each of the 50 or so F-35 fighters they’ll soon carry. Plus a few billion a year to keep each group operational. Not to worry on that score; the Chinese will surely lend the U.S. government more money to enable that.
There’s plenty of reason to be concerned about the roughly $1 trillion a year the U.S. spends on the military and “security.” Even though it’s more than the next 28 countries combined, it’s apparently not enough to keep America safe. In fact, it’s actually making the country less safe, by provoking and threatening other powers.
And if it doesn’t start a war in the short run, it’s going to guarantee a U.S. bankruptcy in the slightly longer run. All the “hawks” running for president this year (which is to say, almost every candidate) seem oblivious to the fact that, in anything but the briefest conflict, economic power completely trumps military hardware.
In conclusion, whenever you see a mention of the U.S. Navy and the Spratlys in the same paragraph, you’re seeing a reminder of an open vein helping to bleed America dry. And that’s the best case.
Editor’s Note: Unfortunately, there’s little any individual can do to practically change the trajectory of this trend in motion. The best you can and should do is to stay informed so that you can protect yourself in the best way possible, and even profit from the situation.
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Sitting Ducks in China's Bathtub, an Overture to World War III? (Doug Casey)
Gold Fails to Hold Above $1080, Could Have Support at $980 in Sight
Key points in this video:
1. The US Dollar Index is approaching resistance at 100.15. The market may bounce off that level, with support at 97.82.
2. Likewise, EURUSD is approaching support at 1.0500.
3 .High grade copper has completed the AB=CD pattern we previously highlighted, and appears to be forming a doji candle this week. This suggests the market may be able to rally back to resistance at 2.2360.
4. Crude oil remains in its range 39.72 to 49.18. It has bounced off the lower limit of the range and may be ready to head back up to the top.
5. Gold did not bounce off support at $1080 this week, but rather treaded lower and is now on pace to close below $1080 this week. This could set the stage for gold to target support at $980.
6. The S&P 500 still looks a bit shaky, as it is below the bottom trendline of the channel it was previously in and is on pace to complete a hanging man candlestick for the week. Pprie is above the 50 SMA and 200 EMA.
Gold Fails to Hold Above $1080, Could Have Support at $980 in Sight
Recul généralisé du dollar sur fond de données mitigées
| Les places européennes ont pâti de la montée des tensions géopolitiques hier, après la destruction d'un avion de chasse russe par la Turquie près de la frontière syrienne. Le DAX a plié de 2% avant de regagner une partie de terrain perdu, pour clôturer en baisse de 1.43%. De même, l'Euro Stoxx 600 plus large est tombé de 2.04% pour terminer en recul de 1.20%. Les Etats-Unis ont publié des... |
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Recul généralisé du dollar sur fond de données mitigées
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