My current broker vinson financials feed news from econotimes. The news are quite conciseness and update throughout day.
Econotimes - Good news site
mercredi 30 septembre 2015
Les marchés des changes restent calmes, les Bourses se reprennent
| La plupart des places asiatiques reprenaient des couleurs mercredi, malgré la publication de chiffresternes en provenance du Japon. La production industrielle nipponne a accusé un recul inattendu en août, ce qui ravive les craintes d'un ralentissement et renforce les arguments en faveur d'un accroissement de la stimulation monétaire. D'après les estimations préliminaires, elle s'est contractée de... |
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En savoir plus sur le broker forex ACM (Advanced Currency Markets)
Les marchés des changes restent calmes, les Bourses se reprennent
Basics of Options on Futures
Quote:
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Originally Posted by TastyTrade
Learn about the varying maturities of Futures contracts as well as the benefits of using options on futures in order to reduce your risk and capital requirement! Plus, get a definition of relative strength and weakness in futures contracts and how to use it to your advantage when trading!
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Basics of Options on Futures
[text] World Market Cap Plunges $13 Trillion To 2 Year Lows, Breaks Key Trendline | Zero Hedge
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"(The last time global market dropped this much - Bernanke unleashed QE2)World market capitalization has fallen back below $60 trillion for the first time since February 2014 as it appears the world's central planners' print-or-die policy to create wealth (and in some magical thinking - economic growth) has failed - and failed dramatically."
"(The last time global market dropped this much - Bernanke unleashed QE2)World market capitalization has fallen back below $60 trillion for the first time since February 2014 as it appears the world's central planners' print-or-die policy to create wealth (and in some magical thinking - economic growth) has failed - and failed dramatically."
[text] World Market Cap Plunges $13 Trillion To 2 Year Lows, Breaks Key Trendline | Zero Hedge
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Central Bank News Link List - Sep 30, 2015: Carney warns investors they may undervalue ‘huge’ climate risks
Here's today's Central Bank News' link list,click throughif you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.
Go to Original Story
- Carney warns investors they may undervalue ‘huge’ climate risks (Bloomberg)
- Loss of central bank traction puts mandates under scrutiny (Reuters)
- Fed’s Evans: Later rate hike better for economy (CNBC)
- Philippines to use interest rate corridor system from Q2 2016 (Reuters)
- Colombia’s c.bank lowers 2015 growth expectation to 2.8% (Colombia Reports)
- IMF warning: Emerging markets could face liquidity crises if interest rates rise(IBT)
- Rwanda central bank holds repo rate, says private sector credit up (Reuters)
- French parliament approves Villeroy de Galhau as BOF governor (MNI)
- Kenya central bank sees tight policy curbing price pressures (Bloomberg)
- Central bank in Denmark loses tool after debt funding needs jumps (Bloomberg)
- Singapore central bank seen likely to ease policy in October: Reuters poll
- Brazilian central bank poll says GDP to shrink 2.8% this year (Business Standard)
- Cenbankers warn against extending bank regulations to shadow banks (Reuters)
- Vietnam central bank cuts interest rates on dollar deposits (Viet Nam News)
Go to Original Story
Central Bank News Link List - Sep 30, 2015: Carney warns investors they may undervalue ‘huge’ climate risks
Iceland maintains rates but will raise if inflation rises
Iceland's central bank left its key interest rates unchanged, including the seven-day deposit rate at 5.50 percent and the seven-day lending rate at 6.25 percent, but warned that it would have to raise rates further if inflation accelerates in the wake of wage settlements.
The Central Bank of Iceland, which has raised its rates by 100 basis points this year, said how much and when it would hike rates would depend on future developments, such as fiscal policy, while a strong krona and global price developments had provided scope to raise rates slower than previously considered necessary.
While holding rates steady today, the central bank raised its reserve requirements by 200 basis points to 4.0 percent as of Oct. 21 to "strengthen the Bank's liquidity management, in the wake of substantial foreign currency purchases" in connection with a wind-up of the estates of failed banks and the plan to release or tie up offshore krona.
Iceland's inflation rate remains below the bank's 2.5 percent target, partly due to the high exchange rate of the krona, helping improve the short-term outlook. In August inflation eased to 1.9 percent from July's 2.2 percent.
"As before, the outcome of wage settlements and somewhat elevated inflation expectations indicate that inflation will gain momentum in the near future," the bank said, adding this has been offset by falling global goods prices and nearly 4 percent appreciation of the krona since the last rate decision in August despite "sizable foreign currency purchases by the Central Bank."
In August, when the bank last raised its rate, it also raised its forecast for 2015 inflation to 2.2 percent from May's forecast of 1.9 percent, and the 2016 forecast to 4.3 percent and the 2017 forecast to 4.1 percent.
The Central Bank of Iceland issued the following statement:
"The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Iceland has decided to keep the Bank’s interest rates unchanged. The Bank’s key interest rate – the rate on seven-day term deposits – will therefore remain 5.5%.
During the first half of the year, domestic demand growth was broadly in line with the Central Bank’s August forecast, but GDP growth measured much stronger. Although the forecast error probably reflects temporary factors, the outlook is for continued robust GDP growth and a widening positive output gap in the coming term.
Inflation is still below the Bank’s inflation target – particularly if the housing component of the CPI is excluded – and has risen more slowly than was assumed in the Bank’s last forecast. This is due in part to the higher exchange rate of the króna, but volatile items play a part as well. As a result, the medium-term inflation outlook has not changed markedly, although the short-term outlook has improved. As before, the outcome of wage settlements and somewhat elevated inflation expectations indicate that inflation will gain momentum in the near future. This is offset by falling global goods prices and a nearly 4% appreciation of the króna since the last interest rate decision date, in spite of sizeable foreign currency purchases by the Central Bank.
If inflation rises in the wake of the wage settlements, as forecasts indicate, the MPC will have to raise interest rates still further in order to bring inflation back to target over the medium term. How much and how quickly will depend on future developments and on how the current uncertainty plays out. A stronger króna and global price developments have provided the scope to raise interest rates somewhat more slowly than was previously considered necessary, but they do not change the need for a tighter monetary stance in the near future. In addition, the interest rate path will depend on whether other policy instruments are used to contain demand-side pressures in the coming term. After adjusting for cyclical factors, the expected Treasury outcome for 2015 and the fiscal budget proposal for 2016 entail an easing of fiscal policy, which will call for a tighter monetary stance, other things being equal.
The MPC has decided to increase reserve requirements from 2% to 4% as of the next reserve maintenance period, which begins on 21 October. The purpose of this is to strengthen the Bank’s liquidity management, in the wake of its substantial foreign currency purchases in the recent term and in connection with the winding-up of the failed banks’ estates and the planned auction to release or tie up offshore krónur. New Rules on Reserve Requirements will be sent today for publication in the Law and Ministerial Gazette."
http://ift.tt/1iP0FNb
Go to Original Story
The Central Bank of Iceland, which has raised its rates by 100 basis points this year, said how much and when it would hike rates would depend on future developments, such as fiscal policy, while a strong krona and global price developments had provided scope to raise rates slower than previously considered necessary.
While holding rates steady today, the central bank raised its reserve requirements by 200 basis points to 4.0 percent as of Oct. 21 to "strengthen the Bank's liquidity management, in the wake of substantial foreign currency purchases" in connection with a wind-up of the estates of failed banks and the plan to release or tie up offshore krona.
Iceland's inflation rate remains below the bank's 2.5 percent target, partly due to the high exchange rate of the krona, helping improve the short-term outlook. In August inflation eased to 1.9 percent from July's 2.2 percent.
"As before, the outcome of wage settlements and somewhat elevated inflation expectations indicate that inflation will gain momentum in the near future," the bank said, adding this has been offset by falling global goods prices and nearly 4 percent appreciation of the krona since the last rate decision in August despite "sizable foreign currency purchases by the Central Bank."
In August, when the bank last raised its rate, it also raised its forecast for 2015 inflation to 2.2 percent from May's forecast of 1.9 percent, and the 2016 forecast to 4.3 percent and the 2017 forecast to 4.1 percent.
The Central Bank of Iceland issued the following statement:
"The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Iceland has decided to keep the Bank’s interest rates unchanged. The Bank’s key interest rate – the rate on seven-day term deposits – will therefore remain 5.5%.
During the first half of the year, domestic demand growth was broadly in line with the Central Bank’s August forecast, but GDP growth measured much stronger. Although the forecast error probably reflects temporary factors, the outlook is for continued robust GDP growth and a widening positive output gap in the coming term.
Inflation is still below the Bank’s inflation target – particularly if the housing component of the CPI is excluded – and has risen more slowly than was assumed in the Bank’s last forecast. This is due in part to the higher exchange rate of the króna, but volatile items play a part as well. As a result, the medium-term inflation outlook has not changed markedly, although the short-term outlook has improved. As before, the outcome of wage settlements and somewhat elevated inflation expectations indicate that inflation will gain momentum in the near future. This is offset by falling global goods prices and a nearly 4% appreciation of the króna since the last interest rate decision date, in spite of sizeable foreign currency purchases by the Central Bank.
If inflation rises in the wake of the wage settlements, as forecasts indicate, the MPC will have to raise interest rates still further in order to bring inflation back to target over the medium term. How much and how quickly will depend on future developments and on how the current uncertainty plays out. A stronger króna and global price developments have provided the scope to raise interest rates somewhat more slowly than was previously considered necessary, but they do not change the need for a tighter monetary stance in the near future. In addition, the interest rate path will depend on whether other policy instruments are used to contain demand-side pressures in the coming term. After adjusting for cyclical factors, the expected Treasury outcome for 2015 and the fiscal budget proposal for 2016 entail an easing of fiscal policy, which will call for a tighter monetary stance, other things being equal.
The MPC has decided to increase reserve requirements from 2% to 4% as of the next reserve maintenance period, which begins on 21 October. The purpose of this is to strengthen the Bank’s liquidity management, in the wake of its substantial foreign currency purchases in the recent term and in connection with the winding-up of the failed banks’ estates and the planned auction to release or tie up offshore krónur. New Rules on Reserve Requirements will be sent today for publication in the Law and Ministerial Gazette."
http://ift.tt/1iP0FNb
Go to Original Story
Iceland maintains rates but will raise if inflation rises
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A list of ebooks.
comment the name, then receive the link.
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Abe Cofnas - Sentiment Indicators. Renko, Price Break, Kagi, Point and Figure
size 8 MB
Abe Cofnas - The Forex Trading Course (2008 Version)
size 14 MB
Abe Cofnas - The Forex Trading Course. A Self-Study Guide to Becoming a Successful Currency Trader
size 6 MB
Abhijit S.Pandya - Pattern Recognition with Neural Networks in C++
size 12.3 MB
Abol Ardalan - Economics & Financial Analysis for Engineering & Project Management
size 5.5 MB.
Abraham Kandel - Fuzzy Expert Systems
size 6.2 MB
Adam Dunsby - Commodity Investing
size 7.4 MB
Adam Zoia - Getting a Job in Hedge Funds
size 4.1 MB
Adedeji Badiru - Fuzzy Engineering Expert Systems with Neural Network Applications
size 2.4 MB
Adil Najam - Trade & Environment
size 3.4 MB
Adrian Pilbeam - Market Leader. International Management
size 10 MB
Adrienne Toghraie - Trading on Target
size 21.8 MB
Agriculture Options for Beginners (Article)
size 862 KB
Aidan McNamara - Contrarian Ripple Trading
size 2.9 MB
Aj Monte - Market Guys. Five Points for Trading Success
size6.2 MB
Akira Ishikawa - Top Global Companies in Japan
size 1.8 MB
Al Brooks - Trading Price Action Ranges
size 10 MB
Al Brooks - Trading Price Action Reversals
size 11.7 MB
Al Brooks - Trading Price Action Trends
size 51.2 MB
Alan Agresti - An Introduction to Categorical Data Analysis
size 2.8 MB
Alan Agresti - Categorical Data Analysis
size 4.2 MB
Alan Farley - 20 Rules For The Master Swing Trader (Article)
size 552 kb
Alan Farley - 7 Bells Pattern and Others (Includes Metastock Code) (Audio) (109 MB)
size 109.4 MB
Alan Farley - Master Swing Trader (Audio Book)
size 235 MB
Alan Farley - Mastering the Trade (Audio 251 MB)
size 251 MB
Alan Farley - Mastering the Trade. An Original Guide to Successful Short-Term Trading (Complete Course 2.8)
size 19.2 MB
Alan Farley - The Master Swing Trader
size 19 MB
Alan Greenspan - The Age of Turbulence (Audio Book)
size 413 MB
Alan Hull - Active Investing
size 15 MB
Alastair Day - Mastering Financial Mathematics in Microsoft Excel (1st edition)
size 8 MB
Albert Mehrabian - Your Inner Path to Investment Success
size 61.6 MB
Alessandro Roncaglia - The Wealth of Ideas
size 7 MB
Alexander Elder - Come Into My Trading Room. A Complete Guide To Trading
size 25 MB
Alexander Elder - Entries & Exits Visits to 16 Trading Rooms
size 110 MB
Alexander Elder - Sell & Sell Short
size 12.3 MB
Alexander Elder - Study Guide for Come Into My Trading Room A Complete Guide to Trading
size 3.8 MB
Alexander Elder - Study Guide for Entries & Exits
size 84.7 MB
Alexander Elder - Study Guide for Sell & Sell Short
Size 3.2 MB
Regard.
Abe Cofnas - Sentiment Indicators. Renko, Price Break, Kagi, Point and Figure
size 8 MB
Abe Cofnas - The Forex Trading Course (2008 Version)
size 14 MB
Abe Cofnas - The Forex Trading Course. A Self-Study Guide to Becoming a Successful Currency Trader
size 6 MB
Abhijit S.Pandya - Pattern Recognition with Neural Networks in C++
size 12.3 MB
Abol Ardalan - Economics & Financial Analysis for Engineering & Project Management
size 5.5 MB.
Abraham Kandel - Fuzzy Expert Systems
size 6.2 MB
Adam Dunsby - Commodity Investing
size 7.4 MB
Adam Zoia - Getting a Job in Hedge Funds
size 4.1 MB
Adedeji Badiru - Fuzzy Engineering Expert Systems with Neural Network Applications
size 2.4 MB
Adil Najam - Trade & Environment
size 3.4 MB
Adrian Pilbeam - Market Leader. International Management
size 10 MB
Adrienne Toghraie - Trading on Target
size 21.8 MB
Agriculture Options for Beginners (Article)
size 862 KB
Aidan McNamara - Contrarian Ripple Trading
size 2.9 MB
Aj Monte - Market Guys. Five Points for Trading Success
size6.2 MB
Akira Ishikawa - Top Global Companies in Japan
size 1.8 MB
Al Brooks - Trading Price Action Ranges
size 10 MB
Al Brooks - Trading Price Action Reversals
size 11.7 MB
Al Brooks - Trading Price Action Trends
size 51.2 MB
Alan Agresti - An Introduction to Categorical Data Analysis
size 2.8 MB
Alan Agresti - Categorical Data Analysis
size 4.2 MB
Alan Farley - 20 Rules For The Master Swing Trader (Article)
size 552 kb
Alan Farley - 7 Bells Pattern and Others (Includes Metastock Code) (Audio) (109 MB)
size 109.4 MB
Alan Farley - Master Swing Trader (Audio Book)
size 235 MB
Alan Farley - Mastering the Trade (Audio 251 MB)
size 251 MB
Alan Farley - Mastering the Trade. An Original Guide to Successful Short-Term Trading (Complete Course 2.8)
size 19.2 MB
Alan Farley - The Master Swing Trader
size 19 MB
Alan Greenspan - The Age of Turbulence (Audio Book)
size 413 MB
Alan Hull - Active Investing
size 15 MB
Alastair Day - Mastering Financial Mathematics in Microsoft Excel (1st edition)
size 8 MB
Albert Mehrabian - Your Inner Path to Investment Success
size 61.6 MB
Alessandro Roncaglia - The Wealth of Ideas
size 7 MB
Alexander Elder - Come Into My Trading Room. A Complete Guide To Trading
size 25 MB
Alexander Elder - Entries & Exits Visits to 16 Trading Rooms
size 110 MB
Alexander Elder - Sell & Sell Short
size 12.3 MB
Alexander Elder - Study Guide for Come Into My Trading Room A Complete Guide to Trading
size 3.8 MB
Alexander Elder - Study Guide for Entries & Exits
size 84.7 MB
Alexander Elder - Study Guide for Sell & Sell Short
Size 3.2 MB
A list of ebooks.
Le dollar s'essouffle sur fond de statistiques ternes
| Le premier lot de données américaines est ressorti plus ou moins en ligne avec les attentes du marché. Les traders devront donc attendre les NFP (créations d'emplois non agricoles) pour avoir plus de clarté sur le timing du premier relèvement des taux de la Réserve fédérale. Les revenus personnels (c.v.s.) ont légèrement reculé à 0.3%m/m en août, contre des projections médianes de 0.4% et 0.5% en... |
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En savoir plus sur le broker forex ACM (Advanced Currency Markets)
Le dollar s'essouffle sur fond de statistiques ternes
India cuts rate 50 bps in front-loaded demand stimulus
India's central bank cut its policy rate by 50 basis points to 6.75 percent in what it described as a "front-loaded policy action" and said it would "continue to be vigilant for signs that monetary policy adjustments are needed to keep the economy on the target disinflationary path."
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has now cut its rate by 125 basis points this year with today's cut expected by financial markets. In August, when the RBI maintained its rate, it had held out the prospect of an easing of policy today pending a decline of inflationary pressures, the outturn of the full monsoon, any policy shift by the U.S. Federal Reserve and transmission of past rate cuts.
"Since our last review, the bulk of our conditions for further accommodation have been met," RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said in a statement, adding that inflation has dropped to a nine-month low, as expected.
India's consumer price inflation rate eased to 3.66 percent in August, the lowest level since November 2014, and Rajan said the RBI's target of 6.0 percent inflation by January 2016 was likely to be achieved.
"Therefore, the focus should now shift to bringing inflation to around 5 percent by the end of fiscal 2016-17," said Rajan, saying inflation was expected to reach 5.8 percent in January next year a shade below projections. India's fiscal year begins April 1.
India's inflation rate is likely to move higher from September for a few months due to base effects and Rajan said the pass-through of the recent depreciation of the rupee would have to be carefully monitored although lower oil prices should have an offsetting effect.
While the RBI will maintain an accommodative policy stance, Rajan said the its focus is the near term will shift to working with the government to ensure that any impediments to banks passing on the bulk of the 125 basis point cut in policy rates are removed.
So far commercial banks have transmitted the RBI's past rate cuts via commercial paper and corporate bonds by only a limited extent and the median base lending rates have fallen by only 30 basis points despite "extremely easy liquidity conditions," Rajan said.
Bank deposit rates, however, have been reduced significantly, suggesting further transmission is possible, he added.
Looking abroad, Rajan said global economic activity had weakened, suggesting that commodity prices will remain contained and low industrial capacity indicates that more domestic demand is needed to substitute for weakening global demand so the domestic investment cycle picks up.
The Reserve Bank of India issued the following fourth bi-monthly monetary policy statement by Governor Raghuram G. Rajan. Copied below is Part A: Monetary Policy.
"Monetary and Liquidity Measures
On the basis of an assessment of the current and evolving macroeconomic situation, it has been decided to:
Assessment
2. Since the third bi-monthly statement of August 2015, global growth has moderated, especially in emerging market economies (EMEs), global trade has deteriorated further and downside risks to growth have increased. In the United States, industrial production slowed as capital spending in the energy sector was cut back and exports contracted, weighed down by the strength of the US dollar. Consumer spending stayed buoyant, however, amidst steadily improving labour market conditions. In the Euro area, a fragile recovery strengthened, supported by domestic consumption, less slack in the labour market and improving financial conditions engendered by ultra-accommodative monetary policy. Economic activity in Japan, however, is faltering under the weight of weak private consumption and exports, with both business and consumer confidence subdued. EMEs are caught in a vortex of slowing global trade volumes, depressed commodity prices, weakening currencies and capital outflows, which is accentuating country-specific domestic constraints. China’s intended rebalancing from investment towards consumption is being hit by the stock market meltdown, slower industrial production and weaker exports. The devaluation of the renminbi on August 11, while mild, has unsettled financial markets across the world. Brazil and Russia are grappling with recession and runaway inflation, while South Africa is facing tightening structural constraints which threaten to tip it into a downturn.
3. Since the Chinese devaluation, equity prices, commodities and currencies have fallen sharply. Capital flight from EMEs into mature bond markets has pushed down developed market yields, and risk spreads across asset classes have widened. Although volatility ebbed in early September and capital flows returned cautiously to some EMEs, sentiment in financial markets remains fragile. The September 17 decision of the Federal Open Market Committee to stay on hold in response to global conditions and weak domestic inflation lifted financial markets briefly, but overall financial conditions are yet to stabilise.
4. In India, a tentative economic recovery is underway, but is still far from robust. In agriculture, sown area has expanded modestly from a year ago, reflecting the timely and robust onset of the monsoon in June, but the southwest monsoon is currently deficient by 14 per cent – with production-weighted rainfall deficiency at 20 per cent. Nevertheless, the first advance estimates indicate that food grain production is expected to be higher than last year, reflecting actions taken to contain the adverse effects of rain deficiency through timely advisories and regular monitoring of seed and fertiliser availability. Allied farm activities, which are more insulated from the monsoon, remain resilient and could partly offset the effects of adverse weather on crop production. Rural demand, however, remains subdued as reflected in still shrinking tractor and two-wheeler sales.
5. Manufacturing has exhibited uneven growth in April-July, with industrial activity slowing sequentially in July, although it has been in expansionary mode for the ninth month in succession. Industries such as apparel, furniture and motor vehicles have experienced acceleration. Furthermore, the resumption of growth in production of consumer durables in recent months, after a protracted period of contraction over the last two years, is indicative of some pick-up in consumption demand, primarily in urban areas. Since our last review, however, external demand conditions have turned weaker, suggesting a more persistent drag from lower exports and cheaper imports due to global overcapacity. This contributes to continuing domestic capacity under-utilisation, decelerating new orders and a rising ratio of finished goods inventories to sales.
6. As a result of still tepid aggregate demand, output price growth is weak, but input material costs have fallen further, leading to an increase in margins for most producers. Weak aggregate demand appears to have more than offset the effect of higher margins to hold back new investment intentions. The expansion in capital goods production, therefore, likely relates more to the revival of stalled projects than to a build-up of the green field pipeline. Survey-based business sentiment has been falling in recent quarters. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) nevertheless remained in expansion territory in August, although it slowed from July due to weak domestic and export order books.
7. In the services sector, construction activity is weakening as reflected in low demand for cement and the large inventory of unsold residential houses in some localities. Rising public expenditure on roads, ports and eventually railways could, however, provide some boost to construction going forward. Lead indicators relating to freight and passenger traffic are mixed. In August, the services PMI remained in expansion for the second consecutive month on improving new business, but business expectations remain subdued.
8. Headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation reached its lowest level in August since November 2014. The ebbing of inflation in the year so far is due to a combination of low month-on-month increases in prices and favourable base effects. Overall year-on-year food inflation dropped sharply, led by vegetables and sugar. Cereal inflation moderated steadily during April-August, but price pressures in respect of pulses and onions remained elevated.
9. CPI inflation excluding food and fuel eased in August for the second consecutive month, primarily due to the decline in petrol and diesel prices pulling down inflation in transportation. Fares other than for air transport have, however, remained inflexible downwards. Inflation in house rentals increased, but was more than offset by some moderation in the heterogeneous category of services, including education, personal care and effects, and health. Inflation expectations of households remained elevated in double digits likely in response to recent month-on-month increases in the prices of vegetables and pulses. Professional forecasters’ inflation expectations eased as credibility built around the January 2016 inflation target. Rural wage growth remains subdued and corporate staff costs decelerated.
10. Liquidity conditions eased considerably during August to mid-September. In addition to structural factors such as deposit mobilisation in excess of credit flow, lower currency demand and pick-up in spending by the government contributed to the surplus liquidity. In response, the Reserve Bank conducted variable rate reverse repos of overnight and longer tenors ranging from 2 to 20 days. As a result, the average net daily liquidity absorption by the Reserve Bank increased from ?120 billion in July to ?261 billion in August and further to ?544 billion in September (up to September 15). Money market rates generally remained below the repo rate. As quarterly tax collections went out of the system from mid-September, deficit conditions returned and the Reserve Bank engaged in average net injections of the order of ?544 billion (September 16 to 27), keeping the call money rate close to the repo rate. Some forms of bank credit such as personal loans grew strongly as did non-bank financing flows through commercial paper, public equity issues and housing finance.
11. With the weakening of growth prospects in EMEs and world trade volume growth falling below world GDP growth, India’s merchandise exports continued to decline in the first two months of Q2. Imports values also declined, but the sharp fall in international crude oil and gold prices was offset by rising import volumes. Non-oil non-gold imports went back into contraction after recording a marginal pick-up in the previous quarter, although there were higher imports of fertilisers, electronics and pulses. With services exports moderating, the widening of the merchandise trade deficit could lead to a modest increase in the current account deficit (CAD) during Q2. Net capital inflows were buoyed by sustained foreign direct investment and accretion to non-resident deposits, and reduced by portfolio outflows, mainly from equity markets. Foreign exchange reserves rose by US $ 10.4 billion during the first half of 2015-16.
Policy Stance and Rationale
12. In the bi-monthly policy statement of August, the Reserve Bank indicated that further monetary policy accommodation will be conditioned by the abating of recent inflationary pressures, the full monsoon outturn, possible Federal Reserve actions and greater transmission of its front-loaded past actions. Since then, inflation has dropped to a nine-month low, as projected. Despite the monsoon deficiency and its uneven spatial and temporal distribution, food inflation pressures have been contained by resolute actions by the government to manage supply. The disinflation has been broad-based and inflation excluding food and fuel has also come off its recent peak in June. The Federal Reserve has postponed policy normalisation. Markets have transmitted the Reserve Bank’s past policy actions via commercial paper and corporate bonds, but banks have done so only to a limited extent. The median base lending rates of banks have fallen by only about 30 basis points despite extremely easy liquidity conditions. This is a fraction of the 75 basis points of the policy rate reduction during January-June, even after a passage of eight months since the first rate action by the Reserve Bank. Bank deposit rates have, however, been reduced significantly, suggesting that further transmission is possible.
13. Looking forward, inflation is likely to go up from September for a few months as favourable base effects reverse. The outlook for food inflation could improve if the increase in sown area translates into higher production. Moderate increases in minimum support prices should keep cereal inflation muted, while subdued international food price inflation should continue to put downward pressure on the prices of sugar and edible oil, and food inflation more generally. It is important that pro-active supply-side management by the government be in place to head off any food price pressures should they materialise, especially in respect of onion and pulses. The pass-through of the recent depreciation of the rupee will have to be carefully monitored, although benign crude prices should have an offsetting effect. Taking all this into consideration, inflation is expected to reach 5.8 per cent in January 2016, a shade lower than the August projection (Chart 1).
14. The modest pick-up in the growth momentum in the first half of 2015-16 benefited from soft commodity prices, disinflation, comfortable liquidity conditions, some de-clogging of stalled projects, and higher capital expenditure by the central government. Underlying economic activity, however, remains weak on account of the sustained decline in exports, rainfall deficiency and weaker than expected momentum in industrial production and investment activity. With global growth and trade slower than initial expectations, a continuing lack of appetite for new investment in the private sector, the constraint imposed by stressed assets on bank lending and waning business confidence, output growth projected for 2015-16 is marked down slightly to 7.4 per cent from 7.6 per cent earlier (Chart 2). Concurrent indicators also suggest that the new GDP series shows higher growth than would the old series, which necessitates recalibrating old measures of potential output and the output gap to the new series.
15. Since our last review, the bulk of our conditions for further accommodation have been met. The January 2016 target of 6 per cent inflation is likely to be achieved. In the monetary policy statement of April 2015, the Reserve Bank said that it would strive to reach the mid-point of the inflation band by the end of fiscal 2017-18. Therefore, the focus should now shift to bringing inflation to around 5 per cent by the end of fiscal 2016-17. In this context, the weakening of global activity since our last review suggests that commodity prices will remain contained for a while. Still-low industrial capacity utilisation indicates more domestic demand is needed to substitute for weakening global demand in order that the domestic investment cycle picks up. The coming Pay Commission Report could add substantial fiscal stimulus to domestic demand, but the government has reaffirmed its desire to respect its fiscal targets and improve the quality of its spending. Under these circumstances, monetary policy has to be accommodative to the extent possible, given its inflation goals, while recognizing that continuing policy implementation, structural reforms and corporate actions leading to higher productivity will be the primary impetus for sustainable growth. Furthermore, investment is likely to respond more strongly if there is more certainty about the extent of monetary stimulus in the pipeline, even if transmission is slow. Therefore, the Reserve Bank has front-loaded policy action by a reduction in the policy rate by 50 basis points. Given our year-ahead projections of inflation, this ensures one year expected Treasury bill real interest rates of about 1.5-2.0 per cent, which are appropriate for this stage of the recovery.
16. While the Reserve Bank’s stance will continue to be accommodative, the focus of monetary action for the near term will shift to working with the Government to ensure that impediments to banks passing on the bulk of the cumulative 125 basis points cut in the policy rate are removed. The Reserve Bank will continue to be vigilant for signs that monetary policy adjustments are needed to keep the economy on the target disinflationary path.
17. The fifth bi-monthly monetary policy statement will be announced on December 1, 2015."
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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has now cut its rate by 125 basis points this year with today's cut expected by financial markets. In August, when the RBI maintained its rate, it had held out the prospect of an easing of policy today pending a decline of inflationary pressures, the outturn of the full monsoon, any policy shift by the U.S. Federal Reserve and transmission of past rate cuts.
"Since our last review, the bulk of our conditions for further accommodation have been met," RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said in a statement, adding that inflation has dropped to a nine-month low, as expected.
India's consumer price inflation rate eased to 3.66 percent in August, the lowest level since November 2014, and Rajan said the RBI's target of 6.0 percent inflation by January 2016 was likely to be achieved.
"Therefore, the focus should now shift to bringing inflation to around 5 percent by the end of fiscal 2016-17," said Rajan, saying inflation was expected to reach 5.8 percent in January next year a shade below projections. India's fiscal year begins April 1.
India's inflation rate is likely to move higher from September for a few months due to base effects and Rajan said the pass-through of the recent depreciation of the rupee would have to be carefully monitored although lower oil prices should have an offsetting effect.
While the RBI will maintain an accommodative policy stance, Rajan said the its focus is the near term will shift to working with the government to ensure that any impediments to banks passing on the bulk of the 125 basis point cut in policy rates are removed.
So far commercial banks have transmitted the RBI's past rate cuts via commercial paper and corporate bonds by only a limited extent and the median base lending rates have fallen by only 30 basis points despite "extremely easy liquidity conditions," Rajan said.
Bank deposit rates, however, have been reduced significantly, suggesting further transmission is possible, he added.
Looking abroad, Rajan said global economic activity had weakened, suggesting that commodity prices will remain contained and low industrial capacity indicates that more domestic demand is needed to substitute for weakening global demand so the domestic investment cycle picks up.
The Reserve Bank of India issued the following fourth bi-monthly monetary policy statement by Governor Raghuram G. Rajan. Copied below is Part A: Monetary Policy.
"Monetary and Liquidity Measures
On the basis of an assessment of the current and evolving macroeconomic situation, it has been decided to:
- reduce the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by 50 basis points from 7.25 per cent to 6.75 per cent with immediate effect;
- keep the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks unchanged at 4.0 per cent of net demand and time liability (NDTL);
- continue to provide liquidity under overnight repos at 0.25 per cent of bank-wise NDTL at the LAF repo rate and liquidity under 14-day term repos as well as longer term repos of up to 0.75 per cent of NDTL of the banking system through auctions; and
- continue with daily variable rate repos and reverse repos to smooth liquidity.
Assessment
2. Since the third bi-monthly statement of August 2015, global growth has moderated, especially in emerging market economies (EMEs), global trade has deteriorated further and downside risks to growth have increased. In the United States, industrial production slowed as capital spending in the energy sector was cut back and exports contracted, weighed down by the strength of the US dollar. Consumer spending stayed buoyant, however, amidst steadily improving labour market conditions. In the Euro area, a fragile recovery strengthened, supported by domestic consumption, less slack in the labour market and improving financial conditions engendered by ultra-accommodative monetary policy. Economic activity in Japan, however, is faltering under the weight of weak private consumption and exports, with both business and consumer confidence subdued. EMEs are caught in a vortex of slowing global trade volumes, depressed commodity prices, weakening currencies and capital outflows, which is accentuating country-specific domestic constraints. China’s intended rebalancing from investment towards consumption is being hit by the stock market meltdown, slower industrial production and weaker exports. The devaluation of the renminbi on August 11, while mild, has unsettled financial markets across the world. Brazil and Russia are grappling with recession and runaway inflation, while South Africa is facing tightening structural constraints which threaten to tip it into a downturn.
3. Since the Chinese devaluation, equity prices, commodities and currencies have fallen sharply. Capital flight from EMEs into mature bond markets has pushed down developed market yields, and risk spreads across asset classes have widened. Although volatility ebbed in early September and capital flows returned cautiously to some EMEs, sentiment in financial markets remains fragile. The September 17 decision of the Federal Open Market Committee to stay on hold in response to global conditions and weak domestic inflation lifted financial markets briefly, but overall financial conditions are yet to stabilise.
4. In India, a tentative economic recovery is underway, but is still far from robust. In agriculture, sown area has expanded modestly from a year ago, reflecting the timely and robust onset of the monsoon in June, but the southwest monsoon is currently deficient by 14 per cent – with production-weighted rainfall deficiency at 20 per cent. Nevertheless, the first advance estimates indicate that food grain production is expected to be higher than last year, reflecting actions taken to contain the adverse effects of rain deficiency through timely advisories and regular monitoring of seed and fertiliser availability. Allied farm activities, which are more insulated from the monsoon, remain resilient and could partly offset the effects of adverse weather on crop production. Rural demand, however, remains subdued as reflected in still shrinking tractor and two-wheeler sales.
5. Manufacturing has exhibited uneven growth in April-July, with industrial activity slowing sequentially in July, although it has been in expansionary mode for the ninth month in succession. Industries such as apparel, furniture and motor vehicles have experienced acceleration. Furthermore, the resumption of growth in production of consumer durables in recent months, after a protracted period of contraction over the last two years, is indicative of some pick-up in consumption demand, primarily in urban areas. Since our last review, however, external demand conditions have turned weaker, suggesting a more persistent drag from lower exports and cheaper imports due to global overcapacity. This contributes to continuing domestic capacity under-utilisation, decelerating new orders and a rising ratio of finished goods inventories to sales.
6. As a result of still tepid aggregate demand, output price growth is weak, but input material costs have fallen further, leading to an increase in margins for most producers. Weak aggregate demand appears to have more than offset the effect of higher margins to hold back new investment intentions. The expansion in capital goods production, therefore, likely relates more to the revival of stalled projects than to a build-up of the green field pipeline. Survey-based business sentiment has been falling in recent quarters. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) nevertheless remained in expansion territory in August, although it slowed from July due to weak domestic and export order books.
7. In the services sector, construction activity is weakening as reflected in low demand for cement and the large inventory of unsold residential houses in some localities. Rising public expenditure on roads, ports and eventually railways could, however, provide some boost to construction going forward. Lead indicators relating to freight and passenger traffic are mixed. In August, the services PMI remained in expansion for the second consecutive month on improving new business, but business expectations remain subdued.
8. Headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation reached its lowest level in August since November 2014. The ebbing of inflation in the year so far is due to a combination of low month-on-month increases in prices and favourable base effects. Overall year-on-year food inflation dropped sharply, led by vegetables and sugar. Cereal inflation moderated steadily during April-August, but price pressures in respect of pulses and onions remained elevated.
9. CPI inflation excluding food and fuel eased in August for the second consecutive month, primarily due to the decline in petrol and diesel prices pulling down inflation in transportation. Fares other than for air transport have, however, remained inflexible downwards. Inflation in house rentals increased, but was more than offset by some moderation in the heterogeneous category of services, including education, personal care and effects, and health. Inflation expectations of households remained elevated in double digits likely in response to recent month-on-month increases in the prices of vegetables and pulses. Professional forecasters’ inflation expectations eased as credibility built around the January 2016 inflation target. Rural wage growth remains subdued and corporate staff costs decelerated.
10. Liquidity conditions eased considerably during August to mid-September. In addition to structural factors such as deposit mobilisation in excess of credit flow, lower currency demand and pick-up in spending by the government contributed to the surplus liquidity. In response, the Reserve Bank conducted variable rate reverse repos of overnight and longer tenors ranging from 2 to 20 days. As a result, the average net daily liquidity absorption by the Reserve Bank increased from ?120 billion in July to ?261 billion in August and further to ?544 billion in September (up to September 15). Money market rates generally remained below the repo rate. As quarterly tax collections went out of the system from mid-September, deficit conditions returned and the Reserve Bank engaged in average net injections of the order of ?544 billion (September 16 to 27), keeping the call money rate close to the repo rate. Some forms of bank credit such as personal loans grew strongly as did non-bank financing flows through commercial paper, public equity issues and housing finance.
11. With the weakening of growth prospects in EMEs and world trade volume growth falling below world GDP growth, India’s merchandise exports continued to decline in the first two months of Q2. Imports values also declined, but the sharp fall in international crude oil and gold prices was offset by rising import volumes. Non-oil non-gold imports went back into contraction after recording a marginal pick-up in the previous quarter, although there were higher imports of fertilisers, electronics and pulses. With services exports moderating, the widening of the merchandise trade deficit could lead to a modest increase in the current account deficit (CAD) during Q2. Net capital inflows were buoyed by sustained foreign direct investment and accretion to non-resident deposits, and reduced by portfolio outflows, mainly from equity markets. Foreign exchange reserves rose by US $ 10.4 billion during the first half of 2015-16.
Policy Stance and Rationale
12. In the bi-monthly policy statement of August, the Reserve Bank indicated that further monetary policy accommodation will be conditioned by the abating of recent inflationary pressures, the full monsoon outturn, possible Federal Reserve actions and greater transmission of its front-loaded past actions. Since then, inflation has dropped to a nine-month low, as projected. Despite the monsoon deficiency and its uneven spatial and temporal distribution, food inflation pressures have been contained by resolute actions by the government to manage supply. The disinflation has been broad-based and inflation excluding food and fuel has also come off its recent peak in June. The Federal Reserve has postponed policy normalisation. Markets have transmitted the Reserve Bank’s past policy actions via commercial paper and corporate bonds, but banks have done so only to a limited extent. The median base lending rates of banks have fallen by only about 30 basis points despite extremely easy liquidity conditions. This is a fraction of the 75 basis points of the policy rate reduction during January-June, even after a passage of eight months since the first rate action by the Reserve Bank. Bank deposit rates have, however, been reduced significantly, suggesting that further transmission is possible.
13. Looking forward, inflation is likely to go up from September for a few months as favourable base effects reverse. The outlook for food inflation could improve if the increase in sown area translates into higher production. Moderate increases in minimum support prices should keep cereal inflation muted, while subdued international food price inflation should continue to put downward pressure on the prices of sugar and edible oil, and food inflation more generally. It is important that pro-active supply-side management by the government be in place to head off any food price pressures should they materialise, especially in respect of onion and pulses. The pass-through of the recent depreciation of the rupee will have to be carefully monitored, although benign crude prices should have an offsetting effect. Taking all this into consideration, inflation is expected to reach 5.8 per cent in January 2016, a shade lower than the August projection (Chart 1).
14. The modest pick-up in the growth momentum in the first half of 2015-16 benefited from soft commodity prices, disinflation, comfortable liquidity conditions, some de-clogging of stalled projects, and higher capital expenditure by the central government. Underlying economic activity, however, remains weak on account of the sustained decline in exports, rainfall deficiency and weaker than expected momentum in industrial production and investment activity. With global growth and trade slower than initial expectations, a continuing lack of appetite for new investment in the private sector, the constraint imposed by stressed assets on bank lending and waning business confidence, output growth projected for 2015-16 is marked down slightly to 7.4 per cent from 7.6 per cent earlier (Chart 2). Concurrent indicators also suggest that the new GDP series shows higher growth than would the old series, which necessitates recalibrating old measures of potential output and the output gap to the new series.
15. Since our last review, the bulk of our conditions for further accommodation have been met. The January 2016 target of 6 per cent inflation is likely to be achieved. In the monetary policy statement of April 2015, the Reserve Bank said that it would strive to reach the mid-point of the inflation band by the end of fiscal 2017-18. Therefore, the focus should now shift to bringing inflation to around 5 per cent by the end of fiscal 2016-17. In this context, the weakening of global activity since our last review suggests that commodity prices will remain contained for a while. Still-low industrial capacity utilisation indicates more domestic demand is needed to substitute for weakening global demand in order that the domestic investment cycle picks up. The coming Pay Commission Report could add substantial fiscal stimulus to domestic demand, but the government has reaffirmed its desire to respect its fiscal targets and improve the quality of its spending. Under these circumstances, monetary policy has to be accommodative to the extent possible, given its inflation goals, while recognizing that continuing policy implementation, structural reforms and corporate actions leading to higher productivity will be the primary impetus for sustainable growth. Furthermore, investment is likely to respond more strongly if there is more certainty about the extent of monetary stimulus in the pipeline, even if transmission is slow. Therefore, the Reserve Bank has front-loaded policy action by a reduction in the policy rate by 50 basis points. Given our year-ahead projections of inflation, this ensures one year expected Treasury bill real interest rates of about 1.5-2.0 per cent, which are appropriate for this stage of the recovery.
16. While the Reserve Bank’s stance will continue to be accommodative, the focus of monetary action for the near term will shift to working with the Government to ensure that impediments to banks passing on the bulk of the cumulative 125 basis points cut in the policy rate are removed. The Reserve Bank will continue to be vigilant for signs that monetary policy adjustments are needed to keep the economy on the target disinflationary path.
17. The fifth bi-monthly monetary policy statement will be announced on December 1, 2015."
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India cuts rate 50 bps in front-loaded demand stimulus
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MarketInOut Review: A Forex and Equities Screener and BackTesting Tool
MarketInOut is an online screener and backtesting tool for stock and forex traders. The review here is mixed; the screener has some positive elements -- mainly its breadth of markets (stocks around the world can be screened for) and its ability to create screens that combine fundamentals and technicals, all at a relatively low price -- but the application has some considerable usability issues, and its backtest tool is also a bit limited. MarketinOut has many free features; full access is available for $139 for 6 months (about $23.17 a month), $219 for 12 months ($18.25 a month), or $329 for 24 months (about $13.71 a month).
About the MarketInOut Screener
Here are some key points regarding the MarketInOut screener:
1. The screener's most unique feature, as noted above, is its ability to screen on the basis of fundamental and technical factors. One can screen based on mathematical indicators pertaining to price, or about price action as well. So, for instance, one can screen for stocks that have fallen by more than 50% from their 52 week high, have a dividend yield of at least 2%, and have a price/book ratio under 3. Ichiomoku clouds, moving average crossovers, candlestick patterns, and price action chart patterns (i.e. support and resistance lines, trendlines, price channels, etc) are all properties that can be screened against, in addition to a wide array of fundamental factors. I found this to be a very compelling feature, as it is something I personally have been doing in a manual capacity already.
2. The screener also covers a robust universe of stocks. Below is a list of exchanges covered:
NYSE -- USA
NASDAQ -- USA
OTC -- USA
OTCBB -- USA
TSX -- Canada
TSXV -- Canada
LSE -- U.K.
XETRA -- Germany
MIL -- Italia
PAR -- France
NSE -- India
BSE -- India
SES -- Singapore
HKSE -- Hong Kong
ASX -- Australia
NZX -- New Zealand
BCBA -- Argentina
BOVESPA -- Brazil
BMV -- Mexico
For the price that MarketInOut charges, this is one of the widest list of exchanges I've seen a screener cover.
2. MarketInOut also has a screener that allows for screening of the forex market based on technical factors. For instance, one could screen for any pair that crossed the 50 SMA in the past day.
3. The screener does not possess an OR operator; it only passes an AND operator. For instance, I can look for stocks that have an RSI greater than 12 AND a price/earnings ratio less than 10, but I cannot specify a screen that looks for either OR condition.
4. MarketInOut also offers a forex correlation and stock correlation tool, which allows traders to see the correlation of forex pairs and stocks over the past year. I found this tool to be a simple way of helping avoid building a portfolio that is excessively overly correlated.
About the MarketInOut Backtesting Tool
1. The backtesting tool allows traders to setup screens, and see how they would have performed under historical conditions. This is extremely useful, but one issue is that it cannot handle a very large amount of data. For instance, when I tried to backtest a strategy against 10 years of previous data, I get a server error; the calculation cannot complete. Backtesting did work well when evaluating the past year, and users are given the option to select a start and end date for their backtest -- and so one could create a 10 year backtest by conducting 10 individual 1 year tests. In general, robust backtesting requires considerable processing power -- and thus desktop solutions are far better than web-based ones.
2. The backtest tool allows users to specify a stop loss based on percentage risk, a trailing stop, and position size requirements, but it does not allow users to factor in transaction costs.
3. The same broad universe of stocks that can be screened for can also be backtested against, using a large set of fundamental and technical criteria.
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4. Pre-Screens. The service includes a number of built-in screens that look for a variety of characteristics. For instance, some screens attempt to replicate value strategies used by Warren Buffet. If relying on pre-screens is your preferred trading strategy, I would recommend checking out GuruFocus' offering, which I think has a far more robust assortment of pre-screens. Like GuruFocus, MarketinOut offers pre-screens that rely solely on fundamental analysis; there are no pre-screened technicals, nor any pre-screens featuring a hybrid of fundamental and technical factors.
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MarketInOut Review: A Forex and Equities Screener and BackTesting Tool
Market Collapse Explained with the Three Laws of VSA
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This short video is an introduction to our live webinar explaining the laws of the markets. Supply and Demand, Cause and Effect and Effort versus Result. |
Market Collapse Explained with the Three Laws of VSA
[text] Chinese Stocks Decline Most in a Month in Hong Kong on Economy - Bloomberg Business
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"Chinese stocks tumbled in Hong Kong, with the benchmark gauge heading for its steepest quarterly loss in four years, as a commodity rout deepened concern about the nation’s growth outlook."
"Chinese stocks tumbled in Hong Kong, with the benchmark gauge heading for its steepest quarterly loss in four years, as a commodity rout deepened concern about the nation’s growth outlook."
[text] Chinese Stocks Decline Most in a Month in Hong Kong on Economy - Bloomberg Business
Kyrgyzstan raises rate 200 bps on inflation pressures
The central bank of Kyrgyzstan raised its policy rate by 200 basis points to 10.00 percent citing unstable financial markets that have raised the pressure on the exchange rate of the som and thus inflationary pressure.
The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic is among the six central banks worldwide that have both raised and cut its policy rate this year. In January the bank raised its rate but then cut the rate in May and July.
The result is that the rate has been lowered by a net 50 basis points this year following a total increase of 450 basis points last year to help defend the som's exchange rate and lower inflation.
The som has been depreciating against the U.S. dollar since June and was trading at 69.1 to the dollar today, down 14.8 percent this year and down 28.4 percent since the start of 2014.
The inflation rate rose to 5.8 percent in August from 5.0 percent in July and accelerated further to 6.2 percent as of Sept. 18, according to the central bank, which targets inflation of 5-7 percent.
At its last meeting in August, the central bank also said rising instability in foreign financial markets had increased pressure on the domestic currency market and this could raise inflationary pressures. But at that point the central bank said inflation had slowed from the start of the year.
Annual economic growth in the first eight months of this year of 6.8 percent was mainly driven by the expansion of production at the Kumtor gold mine, the bank said, adding that growth excluding the mine amounted to 4.5 percent.
The Kumtor gold mine is an open-pit mine near Kyrgyzstan's border with China that is owned by the Canadian firm Centerra. It is the largest gold mine operated in Central Asia by a Western-based company and produced 568 ounces of gold in 2014.
The central bank added that foreign trade and the inflow of remittances was still slowing down due to the depreciation of the currencies of its main trading partners.
The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic issued the following statement:
"On September 28, 2015 the Board of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic decided to raise the policy rate by 200 basis points, to 10.00 percent per annum.
High economic growth in January-August of 2015 (6.8 percent) was mainly driven by the expansion of production at the "Kumtor" gold-mining company. Without "Kumtor", the real GDP growth was 4.5 percent.
However, decline in foreign trade transactions and in inflow of remittances are still observed, as well as due to depreciation of the national currencies of the main trading partners of the Kyrgyz Republic. Instability on the foreign financial markets has been remaining, which together with the above mentioned factors is one of the main reasons for increasing the pressure on the domestic currency market of the country, and which can enhance inflationary pressure in the short and medium terms.
In the middle of September of the current year (as of September 18), the inflation in annual term was 6.2 percent as compared to 5.8 percent in the previous month.
In view of forecasted dynamics of inflationary developments, the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic continues to monitor the situation in the national economy and will take appropriate measures of monetary policy consistent with statutory mandate. The monetary policy will be aimed at achieving and maintaining the inflation rate at the level of 5-7 percent in the medium term, which is determined by the Main directions of monetary policy of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic for the medium term.
The next meeting of the Board of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic on the monetary policy rate is scheduled for October 26, 2015. "
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The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic is among the six central banks worldwide that have both raised and cut its policy rate this year. In January the bank raised its rate but then cut the rate in May and July.
The result is that the rate has been lowered by a net 50 basis points this year following a total increase of 450 basis points last year to help defend the som's exchange rate and lower inflation.
The som has been depreciating against the U.S. dollar since June and was trading at 69.1 to the dollar today, down 14.8 percent this year and down 28.4 percent since the start of 2014.
The inflation rate rose to 5.8 percent in August from 5.0 percent in July and accelerated further to 6.2 percent as of Sept. 18, according to the central bank, which targets inflation of 5-7 percent.
At its last meeting in August, the central bank also said rising instability in foreign financial markets had increased pressure on the domestic currency market and this could raise inflationary pressures. But at that point the central bank said inflation had slowed from the start of the year.
Annual economic growth in the first eight months of this year of 6.8 percent was mainly driven by the expansion of production at the Kumtor gold mine, the bank said, adding that growth excluding the mine amounted to 4.5 percent.
The Kumtor gold mine is an open-pit mine near Kyrgyzstan's border with China that is owned by the Canadian firm Centerra. It is the largest gold mine operated in Central Asia by a Western-based company and produced 568 ounces of gold in 2014.
The central bank added that foreign trade and the inflow of remittances was still slowing down due to the depreciation of the currencies of its main trading partners.
The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic issued the following statement:
"On September 28, 2015 the Board of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic decided to raise the policy rate by 200 basis points, to 10.00 percent per annum.
High economic growth in January-August of 2015 (6.8 percent) was mainly driven by the expansion of production at the "Kumtor" gold-mining company. Without "Kumtor", the real GDP growth was 4.5 percent.
However, decline in foreign trade transactions and in inflow of remittances are still observed, as well as due to depreciation of the national currencies of the main trading partners of the Kyrgyz Republic. Instability on the foreign financial markets has been remaining, which together with the above mentioned factors is one of the main reasons for increasing the pressure on the domestic currency market of the country, and which can enhance inflationary pressure in the short and medium terms.
In the middle of September of the current year (as of September 18), the inflation in annual term was 6.2 percent as compared to 5.8 percent in the previous month.
In view of forecasted dynamics of inflationary developments, the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic continues to monitor the situation in the national economy and will take appropriate measures of monetary policy consistent with statutory mandate. The monetary policy will be aimed at achieving and maintaining the inflation rate at the level of 5-7 percent in the medium term, which is determined by the Main directions of monetary policy of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic for the medium term.
The next meeting of the Board of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic on the monetary policy rate is scheduled for October 26, 2015. "
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Kyrgyzstan raises rate 200 bps on inflation pressures
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lundi 28 septembre 2015
[text] Nasdaq "Death Crosses" For First Time Since 2012 | Zero Hedge
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"With Biotechs in a bear market, and Nasdaq having dropped back into negative territory for 2015, the year's leading equity index has now joined the rest of the majors and completed its "death cross."The 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average creating a "death cross.""
"With Biotechs in a bear market, and Nasdaq having dropped back into negative territory for 2015, the year's leading equity index has now joined the rest of the majors and completed its "death cross."The 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average creating a "death cross.""
[text] Nasdaq "Death Crosses" For First Time Since 2012 | Zero Hedge
TLT Testing Resistance, Treasuries Might Be Getting Ready to Head Back Down
TLT, the ETF tracking 20+ year US Treasury bonds, has rallied back up to a key resistance level from which it has pivoted off of several times over the past year. That fact, coupled with Martin Armstrong's cyclical forecasts that call for a global soverign debt crisis to commence in October, set the stage for favorable reward/risk setups on TLT that target a much lower price for the ETF.
TLT Testing Resistance, Treasuries Might Be Getting Ready to Head Back Down
[text] It's All `Perverted' Now as U.S. Swap Spreads Tumble Below Zero - Bloomberg Business
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"At the height of the financial crisis, the unprecedented decline in swap rates*below Treasury yields was seen as an anomaly.*The phenomenon is now widespread. Swap rates are what companies, investors and traders pay to exchange fixed interest payments for floating ones. That rate falling below Treasury yields -- the spread between the two being negative -- is illogical in the eyes of most market observers, because it theoretically signals that traders view the credit of banks as superior to that of the U.S. government. Back in 2009, it was only negative in the 30-year maturity, a temporary offshoot of deleveraging and market swings following the credit crisis. These days, swap spreads are near or below zero across maturities."
"At the height of the financial crisis, the unprecedented decline in swap rates*below Treasury yields was seen as an anomaly.*The phenomenon is now widespread. Swap rates are what companies, investors and traders pay to exchange fixed interest payments for floating ones. That rate falling below Treasury yields -- the spread between the two being negative -- is illogical in the eyes of most market observers, because it theoretically signals that traders view the credit of banks as superior to that of the U.S. government. Back in 2009, it was only negative in the 30-year maturity, a temporary offshoot of deleveraging and market swings following the credit crisis. These days, swap spreads are near or below zero across maturities."
[text] It's All `Perverted' Now as U.S. Swap Spreads Tumble Below Zero - Bloomberg Business
Marchés des changes circonspects avant les données US
| Après une semaine calme due à un calendrier économique relativement peu chargé, nous attaquons une semaine capitalesur le plan des statistiques économiques. Le marché a eu largement le temps de digérer la décision de la Réserve fédérale de maintenir les taux inchangés et a pris en compte les commentaires hawkish de différents membres de la banque centrale américaine. Au cours de la semaine... |
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plus...
En savoir plus sur le broker forex ACM (Advanced Currency Markets)
Marchés des changes circonspects avant les données US
This week in monetary policy: Kyrgyzstan, India, Iceland, Romania and Bulgaria
This week (September 28 through October 3) central banks from 5 countries or jurisdictions are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: The Kyrgyz Republic, India, Iceland, Romania and Bulgaria.
Following table includes the name of the country, the date of the next policy decision, the current policy rate, the result of the last policy decision, the change in the policy rate year to date, the rate one year ago, and the country’s MSCI classification.
The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always accessed by clicking on This Week.
WEEK 40 SEP 28-OCT 3, 2015: COUNTRY DATE RATE LATEST YTD 1 YR AGO MSCI KYRGYZSTAN 28-Sep 8.00% 0 -250 7.00% INDIA 29-Sep 7.25% 0 0 8.00% EM ICELAND 30-Sep 6.25% 50 100 6.00% ROMANIA 30-Sep 1.75% 0 -100 3.00% FM BULGARIA 30-Sep 0.01% 0 -1 0.04% FM
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Following table includes the name of the country, the date of the next policy decision, the current policy rate, the result of the last policy decision, the change in the policy rate year to date, the rate one year ago, and the country’s MSCI classification.
The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always accessed by clicking on This Week.
WEEK 40 SEP 28-OCT 3, 2015: COUNTRY DATE RATE LATEST YTD 1 YR AGO MSCI KYRGYZSTAN 28-Sep 8.00% 0 -250 7.00% INDIA 29-Sep 7.25% 0 0 8.00% EM ICELAND 30-Sep 6.25% 50 100 6.00% ROMANIA 30-Sep 1.75% 0 -100 3.00% FM BULGARIA 30-Sep 0.01% 0 -1 0.04% FM
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This week in monetary policy: Kyrgyzstan, India, Iceland, Romania and Bulgaria
dimanche 27 septembre 2015
Annaforex - SwissBot Ea / Monti EA
Hei guys, please test and report your findings..
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EUR/USD, USD/CHF
M15, M30 and H1 timeframes
FREE product with no fees
100% full AUTO profit
Swiss Forex technologies
ANY brokers, 5 min to install
Detailed manual on setup inside
MAIN FEATURES:
EUR/USD, USD/CHF
M15, M30 and H1 timeframes
FREE product with no fees
100% full AUTO profit
Swiss Forex technologies
ANY brokers, 5 min to install
Detailed manual on setup inside
Annaforex - SwissBot Ea / Monti EA
Hitman EA
Can somebody please make a reliable backtest using this ea?
it looks promising..
TF = 1m
Pairs : UCAD, GBPJPY, EURUSD, NZDUSD
hitman ea.jpg
it looks promising..
TF = 1m
Pairs : UCAD, GBPJPY, EURUSD, NZDUSD
hitman ea.jpg
Hitman EA
Jim Grant: The Next Thing From Central Banks Might Be Direct Checks to Citizens
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Quote:
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You’re saying there’s an accident waiting to happen? JG: The central banks lifted off the stock market so that aggregate demand is going to rise. But they forgot to consider that aggregate supply is likely also to rise: Oil drillers will have it easier to find financing with which to drill the marginal well and to produce the marginal barrel of oil. This will weight on the market causing lower oil prices which will lead the central bankers in return to print still more money to save us from what they call «the risk of deflation». So it’s seemingly a never ending, circular process of so called stimulus leading to still more stimulus and unconventional ideas leading to radical ideas. I dare to say that we have not yet seen the most radical brainwaves of the mandarins running our central banks. What do you think this will look like? JG: They don’t keep those things as a secret. They talk quite openly about «direct monetary funding» which is what Milton Friedman had in mind when he coined the phrase “helicopter money”. So the next idea is just bypassing the banking system altogether and mailing out checks to the citizens. Would something like that even work? JG: All this monetary stimulus does two things in a reciprocal way: It pushes failure into the future and brings consumption into the present. Providing marginal businesses with very cheap credit is inviting companies that have passed their useful days of their commercial lives to pretending some kind of an afterlife thanks to the subsidies from the central banks. But capitalism is inherently a dynamic system based on entrepreneurship and to new inventions. It’s a little bit like the forest for the trees: You need life but you also need death. Without death there is no room for a new generation and what you get is Japan: Standing timbers of ancient age, none of them too healthy. Quantitative easing and artificially low interest rates reduce the dynamics, the growth and the vibrancy of economic life. |
Jim Grant: The Next Thing From Central Banks Might Be Direct Checks to Citizens
Is swap the biggest obstacle of swing trading?
I sometimes want to leave my trades in few days but the swap is really annoy? Can we avoid swap or how to optimize the swing trading (trading on a pair with positive swap) ? please advice.
Is swap the biggest obstacle of swing trading?
samedi 26 septembre 2015
An Introduction to Calendar Spreads and How They Can be Used to Trade Seasonality in Natural Gas Futures Contracts
Quote:
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When trading Futures, a calendar spread uses two different expiration periods to create a position in an underlying that is less risky and requires less margin that outright buying and selling of contracts. When establishing calendar spreads, it's important to note whether the underlying is experiencing backwardation (front month contracts are more expensive than back month) or contango (back month contracts are more expensive than front month). From there, you can establish long or short calendar positions depending on whether you assume the spread between the expirations will diverge or converge. On today's Closing the Gap segment, Pete Mulmat joins Tom Sosnoff & Tony Battista to present Calendar Spread strategies that can be used to trade Natural Gas Futures (/NG). tastyrade explains how seasonality plays a role in Natural Gas Futures pricing and possible calendar spreads to add to your portofolio based on the changes of supply and demand in the underlying! |
An Introduction to Calendar Spreads and How They Can be Used to Trade Seasonality in Natural Gas Futures Contracts
Good forex domains for your personal business
In more detail look here: perfectdomains.biz
Good forex domains for your personal business
vendredi 25 septembre 2015
Colombia raises rate 25 bps on rising inflation risks
Colombia's central bank raised its benchmark intervention rate by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent as the "risk of a lasting increase in inflation and unanchoring of inflation expectations has risen, while the risk of an excessive slowdown in economic activity has not exhibited a noticeable change."
It is the first rate hike by the Central Bank of Colombia this year following cuts that totaled 125 basis points in 2014.
The central bank said sharp rises in the prices of goods that are most affected by a depreciation of the peso were continuing to push up inflation and this may affect the cost of goods and services that are indexed, pushing up inflation expectations.
At the same time, the impact of El Nino has intensified, raising the risk of higher food prices.
Colombia's inflation rate rose to 4.74 percent in August from 4.46 percent in July and inflation expectations have risen to above 4.0 percent.
The central bank targets inflation at a midpoint of 3.0 percent within a range of 2-4 percent.
Colombia's peso has been depreciating in sync with the fall in oil prices since mid-2014 and was trading at 3,072.5 to the U.S. dollar today, down 22.6 percent since the start of the year.
Colombia's economy has been slowing in response to lower demand from machinery investment and transportation equipment but annual growth in the second quarter of 3.0 percent, up from 2.8 percent in the first quarter, was slightly better than expected by the central bank.
For the third quarter, the bank's staff maintained its forecast for growth between 1.8 and 3.4 percent, with 2.8 percent the most likely outcome.
The Central Bank of Colombia issued the following statement:
"The Board of Directors of Banco de la República at today’s meeting decided to increase the benchmark interest rate by 25 bp to 4.75%. The Board took into consideration mainly the following aspects:
Explanation of the policy decision
Background
Current Situation
Policy Decision
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It is the first rate hike by the Central Bank of Colombia this year following cuts that totaled 125 basis points in 2014.
The central bank said sharp rises in the prices of goods that are most affected by a depreciation of the peso were continuing to push up inflation and this may affect the cost of goods and services that are indexed, pushing up inflation expectations.
At the same time, the impact of El Nino has intensified, raising the risk of higher food prices.
Colombia's inflation rate rose to 4.74 percent in August from 4.46 percent in July and inflation expectations have risen to above 4.0 percent.
The central bank targets inflation at a midpoint of 3.0 percent within a range of 2-4 percent.
Colombia's peso has been depreciating in sync with the fall in oil prices since mid-2014 and was trading at 3,072.5 to the U.S. dollar today, down 22.6 percent since the start of the year.
Colombia's economy has been slowing in response to lower demand from machinery investment and transportation equipment but annual growth in the second quarter of 3.0 percent, up from 2.8 percent in the first quarter, was slightly better than expected by the central bank.
For the third quarter, the bank's staff maintained its forecast for growth between 1.8 and 3.4 percent, with 2.8 percent the most likely outcome.
The Central Bank of Colombia issued the following statement:
"The Board of Directors of Banco de la República at today’s meeting decided to increase the benchmark interest rate by 25 bp to 4.75%. The Board took into consideration mainly the following aspects:
- In August, annual consumer inflation rose, reaching 4.74%. The average of the four measures of core inflation (4.46%) increased again, reaching its highest level since June 2009. Analysts’ one and two years inflation expectations are around the top half of the target range, and those embedded in 2, 3 and 5 years public debt bonds are above 4.0%.
- Pass-through of nominal depreciation to consumer prices and the increase in the cost of imported raw materials, as well as the lower dynamics in food supply, explained to a great extent the acceleration of inflation so far this year.
- Pass-through of part of the devaluation of the peso to consumer prices and the greater intensity of El Niño have slowed down convergence of inflation to the target, due to its direct impact on prices and inflation expectations as well as by the probable triggering of indexation mechanisms.
- Figures for global economic activity continue to reflect a weak dynamics of external demand, below the one recorded in 2014. In the United States, the economy would have continued to grow at favorable rates, while the euro zone is recovering slowly. In China, the slowdown continues and its central bank implemented new measures to stimulate the economy. The major economies of Latin America recorded low growths or contractions in their output.
- In the United States, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate unaltered. As for Latin America, the risk premia of the major economies remain at levels higher than those of 2014, and the value of their currencies against the US dollar has been volatile.
- The international price of oil and other commodities exported by Colombia remain at low levels. The fall in the terms of trade recorded throughout the year has deteriorated national income and largely explains the higher level of the exchange rate vis-à-vis the US dollar.
- In Colombia, economic growth in the second quarter (3.0%) was slightly better than projected by the technical staff. Domestic demand slowed down mainly in machinery investment and transportation equipment. Private consumption grew at a slower pace. Both exports and imports fell, but their net contribution to GDP growth was positive. Considering this and with the new information of the third quarter, the technical staff maintained the estimated range for economic growth between 1.8% and 3.4%, with 2.8% as the most likely outcome.
Explanation of the policy decision
Background
- The adjustment of the Colombian economy to the strong income shock derived from the strong fall of the international price of oil has required a substantial depreciation of the peso. This is necessary to reorient sectoral spending and production, leading to adjustment of the country’s external accounts.
- The expectations of an increase in the benchmark interest rates by the US Federal Reserve have generated additional pressures towards depreciation.
- Due to its magnitude, devaluation has raised inflation in consumer prices. However, this shock is considered transitory, as an additional strong and continuous depreciation is not expected. This impact adds to the temporary shocks in food supply at the beginning of the year.
- In the light of the transitory nature of all these shocks, and considering the anchoring of inflation expectations to the target, gradual convergence of inflation was expected in the policy horizon without altering the benchmark interest rate.
- At the same time, a slowdown in the economy was foreseen as a result of the deterioration in the terms of trade. Given the persistence of the less favorable terms of trade and national income, a slowdown in domestic spending was thought to be compatible with sustainability of the country’s external accounts. However, the risk that the slowdown could be excessive was recognized, especially in a context of weak external demand. With the information from the last month, the likelihood of this risk has decreased.
- Under these conditions, the Board of Directors deemed appropriate then to keep interest rates stable at expansionary levels.
Current Situation
- The new information available shows a continuous and higher-than-expected increase in inflation and core inflation indicators, as well as the appearance of signs of possible “unanchoring” of inflation expectations.
- The sharp increases in the prices of goods that are most affected by the depreciation of the peso have continued pressing inflation upwards. Prices of other goods and services also show increasing variations, which may reflect indexation, expectations of higher inflation in the future, or pressures in costs in these sectors. At the same time, El Niño has intensified, increasing the risk of further increases in food and energy prices.
- As mentioned, inflation expectation indicators increased, and those derived from the prices of short and long term public debt are above 4.0%.
- Recent data on growth and economic activity confirm a slowdown in production and expenditure in line with the projections of the Central Bank’s technical staff, compatible with the correction of the country’s external deficit.
Policy Decision
- The risk of a lasting increase in inflation and unanchoring of inflation expectations has risen, while the risk of an excessive slowdown in economic activity has not exhibited a noticeable change.
- Under these conditions, given the current expansionary monetary policy stance, the Board of Directors decided to increase by 25 bps Banco de la República’s benchmark interest rate. With the current information, the Board believes that this increase is consistent with the convergence to the inflation target of 3.0%.
- The Board reiterates its commitment to the inflation target and continues to carefully monitor the behavior and projections of economic activity and inflation in the country, as well as that of asset markets and the international situation."
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Colombia raises rate 25 bps on rising inflation risks
Trinidad & Tobago raises rate 25 bps for 7th time in a row
The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago raised its benchmark repurchase rate by 25 basis points for the seventh consecutive time, saying higher interest rates are considered necessary to prevent an outflow of capital that is attracted to higher U.S. dollar assets.
Trinidad and Tobago's central bank has now raised its rate by a total of 175 basis points since embarking on its tightening campaign in September. This year it has raised the rate 125 points.
In recent months the interest rate differential between TT dollar and U.S. dollar assets has widened but the central bank said "this comfortable position" could easily reverse.
"The MPC judged higher domestic interest rates are necessary to mitigate potential capital outflows," the central bank said, adding that its policy stance is still very accommodative in the context of a contracting non-energy sector and moderate inflationary pressures.
The central bank said it would maintain an aggressive liquidity management program to strengthen the impact of rising interest rates in the financial system, adding that excess liquidity had remained at a comfortable daily average of $3.3 billion over the past three months and the median commercial prime lending rate had risen to 8-1/2 percent as of mid-September from 8-1/4 percent in July.
The outlook for Trinidad & Tobago's economy has deteriorated, the bank said, adding that provisional estimates show a contraction of close to 2 percent in the first half of this year as continued shortfalls in natural gas production led to a decline in the energy sector by an estimated 3.5 percent in the first half of the year.
In the first quarter of this year, Trinidad and Tobago's Gross Domestic Product shrank by 1.7 percent from the same 2014 quarter.
In contrast to expectations, the central bank said inflationary pressures have not materialized, with inflation ion August slowing to 4 percent from 5.6 percent in July.
The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago issued the following statement:
"At its September 2015 meeting, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to increase the ‘Repo’ rate for a seventh consecutive time by 25 basis points to 4 ½ percent. The most influential factor behind the MPC’s decision remains the normalization of US monetary policy which could reduce capital flows to many emerging market economies, including Trinidad and Tobago, which is already adjusting to persistently low energy prices. The MPC also judged the domestic monetary policy stance as still very accommodative in the context of a contracting non-energy sector and moderate inflationary pressures.
Since the July 2015 meeting of the MPC, the global growth outlook has worsened with the emergence of new risks. These risks included spillbacks associated with an abrupt slowdown in the Chinese economy and a surprise devaluation of the renminbi, both of which contributed to the US Fed keeping its policy rate unchanged at its September 2015 meeting. This delay to the start of normalization of US monetary policy has added to the uncertainty in an already volatile global environment. Markets now expect an increase in the Fed funds rate to take place sometime in the remaining three months of 2015, especially given the strengthening US economy. Over the past few months, the interest differential has widened between TT$ assets and US$ assets, but this fairly comfortable position could easily reverse, given the sharp fluctuations in US interest rates in 2015. The MPC judged higher domestic interest rates are necessary to mitigate potential capital outflows.
Trinidad and Tobago’s domestic economic outlook has deteriorated. Provisional estimates indicate the domestic economy contracted by close to 2 percent in the first half of 2015. Continued shortfalls in natural gas production saw the energy sector decline by an estimated 3 ½ percent in the first six months of 2015. The non-energy sector, which has provided support to the overall economy for the past few years lost momentum, declining by around 1 percent in the first half of 2015. This decline was mainly due to a slowdown in construction, distribution and manufacturing. Early indicators point to continued sluggish economic performance in the third quarter of 2015. Domestic inflationary pressures have not materialized as initially expected. On a year-onyear basis to August 2015, headline inflation slowed to 4 percent from just over 5 ½ percent in July 2015. Core inflation was stable at just over 1 ½ percent, while food inflation decelerated to around 8 percent from double-digit territory of 11 ½ percent in July 2015. Although current price pressures seem contained, disruptions to domestic agricultural supply and higher production costs facing select food industries could lead to rising food inflation. Increased consumer spending driven in part by recently concluded public sector wage agreements, as well as robust consumer borrowing, could also push up inflationary pressures.
With excess liquidity remaining at a comfortable daily average of $3.3 billion over the past three months (July – September 21, 2015), the MPC also decided to maintain an aggressive liquidity management programme so as to strengthen the impact of rising interest rates throughout the financial system. As at mid-September 2015, the median commercial bank prime lending rate had increased to 8 ½ percent from 8 ¼ percent in July 2015.
The next Monetary Policy Announcement is scheduled for November 27 th 2015."
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Trinidad and Tobago's central bank has now raised its rate by a total of 175 basis points since embarking on its tightening campaign in September. This year it has raised the rate 125 points.
In recent months the interest rate differential between TT dollar and U.S. dollar assets has widened but the central bank said "this comfortable position" could easily reverse.
"The MPC judged higher domestic interest rates are necessary to mitigate potential capital outflows," the central bank said, adding that its policy stance is still very accommodative in the context of a contracting non-energy sector and moderate inflationary pressures.
The central bank said it would maintain an aggressive liquidity management program to strengthen the impact of rising interest rates in the financial system, adding that excess liquidity had remained at a comfortable daily average of $3.3 billion over the past three months and the median commercial prime lending rate had risen to 8-1/2 percent as of mid-September from 8-1/4 percent in July.
The outlook for Trinidad & Tobago's economy has deteriorated, the bank said, adding that provisional estimates show a contraction of close to 2 percent in the first half of this year as continued shortfalls in natural gas production led to a decline in the energy sector by an estimated 3.5 percent in the first half of the year.
In the first quarter of this year, Trinidad and Tobago's Gross Domestic Product shrank by 1.7 percent from the same 2014 quarter.
In contrast to expectations, the central bank said inflationary pressures have not materialized, with inflation ion August slowing to 4 percent from 5.6 percent in July.
The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago issued the following statement:
"At its September 2015 meeting, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to increase the ‘Repo’ rate for a seventh consecutive time by 25 basis points to 4 ½ percent. The most influential factor behind the MPC’s decision remains the normalization of US monetary policy which could reduce capital flows to many emerging market economies, including Trinidad and Tobago, which is already adjusting to persistently low energy prices. The MPC also judged the domestic monetary policy stance as still very accommodative in the context of a contracting non-energy sector and moderate inflationary pressures.
Since the July 2015 meeting of the MPC, the global growth outlook has worsened with the emergence of new risks. These risks included spillbacks associated with an abrupt slowdown in the Chinese economy and a surprise devaluation of the renminbi, both of which contributed to the US Fed keeping its policy rate unchanged at its September 2015 meeting. This delay to the start of normalization of US monetary policy has added to the uncertainty in an already volatile global environment. Markets now expect an increase in the Fed funds rate to take place sometime in the remaining three months of 2015, especially given the strengthening US economy. Over the past few months, the interest differential has widened between TT$ assets and US$ assets, but this fairly comfortable position could easily reverse, given the sharp fluctuations in US interest rates in 2015. The MPC judged higher domestic interest rates are necessary to mitigate potential capital outflows.
Trinidad and Tobago’s domestic economic outlook has deteriorated. Provisional estimates indicate the domestic economy contracted by close to 2 percent in the first half of 2015. Continued shortfalls in natural gas production saw the energy sector decline by an estimated 3 ½ percent in the first six months of 2015. The non-energy sector, which has provided support to the overall economy for the past few years lost momentum, declining by around 1 percent in the first half of 2015. This decline was mainly due to a slowdown in construction, distribution and manufacturing. Early indicators point to continued sluggish economic performance in the third quarter of 2015. Domestic inflationary pressures have not materialized as initially expected. On a year-onyear basis to August 2015, headline inflation slowed to 4 percent from just over 5 ½ percent in July 2015. Core inflation was stable at just over 1 ½ percent, while food inflation decelerated to around 8 percent from double-digit territory of 11 ½ percent in July 2015. Although current price pressures seem contained, disruptions to domestic agricultural supply and higher production costs facing select food industries could lead to rising food inflation. Increased consumer spending driven in part by recently concluded public sector wage agreements, as well as robust consumer borrowing, could also push up inflationary pressures.
With excess liquidity remaining at a comfortable daily average of $3.3 billion over the past three months (July – September 21, 2015), the MPC also decided to maintain an aggressive liquidity management programme so as to strengthen the impact of rising interest rates throughout the financial system. As at mid-September 2015, the median commercial bank prime lending rate had increased to 8 ½ percent from 8 ¼ percent in July 2015.
The next Monetary Policy Announcement is scheduled for November 27 th 2015."
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Trinidad & Tobago raises rate 25 bps for 7th time in a row
first post.question on day tradeing
I am paper trading on TOS, and was wondering if I am doing something wrong..I am buying(in truth shorting) stocks on the days high(well waiting for the first sign of a pull back) in increments of 1500,2500,5000 depending on volume(sometime volume is low, and trades dont happen in the real world right?)..Then buy them back(completing the short contract) when they go down a certain amount or certain percent. This is also done in similar increments as the opening of the trade...for instance I bought(shorted..not sure what to call it) AKS today at 2500@2.44, 2500@2.46, 5000@2.45 total of 10000 ave price 2.45..waited 30-45minutes..sold it?bought it back? at 2500@2.36 5000@2.34, then change/ from 2500@2.32 back to 2.35(is this allowed in the real world?)..all fired(made over a $1000.00 in paper..lol!!)..If I have $50,000 real cash(qualify for day trading, above the 25K..margin account, but only using my money. No loans/margins? If I loss[yea, gambling terms] I dont want to compound it), and did this in the real world would it be legal? Would it work(been doing this with similar results for 2 weeks now..so I must be doing something wrong or illegal..not all winners but averaging 2.155% daily on 50k) ..am I missing something? I dont want to get all excited, and sink all my savings into this only to find out I am wrong, doing something illegal, just getting lucky(this is true to a point), something else I am not seeing, not understanding...Anything would be helpful to alleviate my concerns or give me something to think about, help me avoid a terrible mistake..Thanks Take Care.
first post.question on day tradeing
The Fed’s Alice In Wonderland Economy - What Happens Next? (Nick Giambruno)
Originally Published by Casey Research
After the president of the United States, the most powerful person on the planet is the chairman of the Federal Reserve.View the Casey Research Guide to Crisis Investing on InformedTrades
Ask almost anyone on the street for the name of the U.S. president, and you’ll get a quick answer.
But if you ask the same person what the Federal Reserve is, you’ll likely get a blank stare.
They don’t know - partly due to the institution’s deliberately obscure name - that the Fed is really the third iteration of the country’s central bank. Or that the Fed manipulates the nation’s economic destiny by controlling the money supply.
And that’s just how the Fed likes it. They’d prefer Boobus americanus not understand the king-like power they wield.
By simply choosing to utter the right words, the chairman of the Fed can create or extinguish trillions of dollars of wealth both in and outside of the U.S. He holds the economic fate of billions of people in his hands.
So it’s no shocker that investors carefully parse everything he says. They have to, if they want to be successful. Some even go as far as to analyze the almighty chairman’s body language. Of course, the mainstream financial media revere the Fed.
You may recall the unhealthy spectacle that occurred in 1996. That’s when Alan Greenspan, the Fed chairman at the time, spoke the now famous phrase “irrational exuberance” in what should have otherwise been a dull and forgettable speech.
Investors heard Greenspan’s phrase to mean that the Fed would soon raise interest rates to slow the global economy.
It’s worth mentioning that Greenspan didn’t actually say the Fed would raise rates. Nor did he intend to signal that.
Nonetheless, the reaction was swift and panicky. U.S. markets were closed at the time, but stocks in Japan and Hong Kong dropped 3%. The German stock market fell 4%. When trading started in the U.S. market the next day, the market opened down 2%.
Billions of dollars of wealth vanished in a period of 16 hours.
That’s the absurd power over the global economy that the Federal Reserve gives to one human being.
The words of the chairman can make or break the fortunes of anyone with a brokerage account.
The Fed’s Alice in Wonderland Economy
I almost fell out of my chair when I heard it…
A journalist recently asked Janet Yellen, the current chair of the Federal Reserve, if the central bank would keep interest rates at 0% forever.
Her response: “I can’t completely rule it out.”
I was stunned.
The deferential financial media hurried to ignore the significance of that statement. Instead, it acted the way big city police might act after making a messy arrest on a busy sidewalk. “Move along folks, nothing to see here!”
Clearly, there was something to see. Something very important.
Yellen’s words came amidst one of the most anticipated economic pronouncements in a generation… whether the Fed would finally raise interest rates for the first time in nine years. Short-term rates have been at zero since the 2008 financial crisis.
Interest rates are simply the price of borrowing money. Setting them at an artificial level is nothing other than price fixing. Not surprisingly, it has led to enormous amounts of malinvestment and other distortions in the economy.
Malinvestment is the result of faulty decision-making. Any investor or business can make a mistake, but central bank manipulation of interest rates subsidizes bad, wasteful decisions.
Cheap borrowing costs trick companies. It causes them to plow money into plants, equipment, and other assets that appear profitable because borrowing costs are low. Only later, when the profits don’t show up, do they discover that the capital was wasted.
Seven years of quantitative easing (QE) and Fed-engineered zero interest rates have drawn the U.S. and much of the world into an unsustainable "Alice in Wonderland" bubble economy riddled with malinvestment.
The pundits had expected that, at this recent meeting, the Fed would move to raise rates just a little and give the global economy a tiny taste of sobriety.
Not even that nudge materialized.
Instead, the Fed sat on its hands. It kept interest rates at zero.
And Janet Yellen couldn’t even rule out that rates would stay at zero forever.
If she can’t even do that, how is she going to start a sustained series of rate hikes, as many of those same pundits now expect her to do a few months down the road?
The truth is, seven years of 0% yields and successive rounds of money printing has so distorted the U.S. economy that it can’t handle even the tiniest increase in interest rates. It would be the pin that pricks the biggest stock and bond market bubble in all of human history. The Fed cannot let that happen.
What Happens Next
It’s clear that the Fed can’t raise interest rates in any meaningful way. It would trigger a financial meltdown that would quickly force them to reverse course.
The Fed might be able to get away with a token increase, but that’s all.
In other words, the Fed has trapped itself.
Former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke admitted as much recently when he said he didn’t expect rates to normalize in his lifetime.
And then, we have the current chair Janet Yellen saying that rates might stay at zero forever!
Yellen’s belief that she has the power to suppress interest rates until the end of time is a frightening sign.
As powerful as the Fed is, it isn’t stronger than the markets. A crisis in the markets could force rates higher even if the Fed doesn’t want them to go there. And the longer the Fed tries to sustain abnormalities like QE and 0% interest rates, the more likely it is that the whole business will end with the markets crushing the Fed.
And that’s not even considering a collapse of the petrodollar system or China pushing the establishment of a New Silk Road in Eurasia…two catalysts that would likely force interest rates higher.
So I’ll go ahead and disagree with Yellen and rule out the possibility that rates might stay at zero forever. They won’t, because they can’t.
At the next sign of a market swoon or of a weakening economy, or with the next episode of deflationary jitters, the Fed will again ramp up the easy money. It could be another round of QE. Or the Fed could push interest rates into negative territory. If that fails, the Fed could go for the nuclear option and drop freshly printed money out of helicopters as Bernanke once infamously suggested – or, more likely, into everyone’s bank account. They’ll do whatever it takes, no matter what the eventual damage to the dollar’s value.
Whatever the details, one thing should be clear. This politburo of unaccountable central planners is the greatest risk to your financial wellbeing today.
What You Can Do About It
It’s a terrifying thought that the actions of a few people at the Fed so endanger your financial security.
But the facts are worse than that. There’s more to worry about than just the financial effects. The social and political implications of the Fed’s actions are even more dangerous.
An economic depression and currency inflation (perhaps hyperinflation) are very much in the cards. These things rarely lead to anything but bigger government, less freedom, and shrinking prosperity. Sometimes they lead to much worse.
Fortunately, your destiny doesn’t need to be hostage to what’s coming.
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The article was originally published at internationalman.com.
The Fed’s Alice In Wonderland Economy - What Happens Next? (Nick Giambruno)
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