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Australia holds rate, fresh data to determine next move

Australia's central bank left its benchmark cash rate steady at 2.00 percent, as widely expected, repeating its recent guidance that fresh economic data will guide its outlook and determine whether the current policy stance "will most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target."
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which has cut its rate by a total of 50 basis points this year, also repeated its comment from its previous board meeting that the "Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices," omitting any reference for the need of further depreciation of the exchange rate.
The Australian dollar, known as the Aussie, started depreciating in September 2014 and has now fallen to levels not seen since April 2009. In response to the RBA's latest statement, the Aussie firmed slightly to 1.399 to the U.S. dollar from around 1.40, but is still down 12.8 percent this year.
In his statement, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens acknowledged the "further softening in conditions in China and east Asia of late," but added that growth the United States was stronger and contrasted the recent volatility in equity markets from developments in China with relative stability in other financial markets.
However, Stevens also said key commodity prices were "much lower than a year ago," resulting in falling terms of trade for Australia.
Australia's economy is continuing to expand moderately, Steven said, with spare capacity likely to continue for "some time yet," and inflationary pressures are contained so inflation will remain consistent with the RBA's target for the next one to two years, even with a lower exchange rate.
Australia's inflation rate rose slightly to 1.50 percent in the second quarter of the year from 1.3 percent in the first quarter, still well below the RBA's target of 2 to 3 percent.
"In such circumstances, monetary policy needs to be accommodative," Stevens said, adding that house prices in Sydney continue to rise strongly and the central bank was working with other regulators to contain any risks that may arise from the housing market.


The Reserve Bank of Australia issued the following statement:


"Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent.
The global economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with some further softening in conditions in China and east Asia of late, but stronger US growth. Key commodity prices are much lower than a year ago, in part reflecting increased supply, including from Australia. Australia's terms of trade are falling.
The Federal Reserve is expected to start increasing its policy rate over the period ahead, but some other major central banks are continuing to ease policy. Equity markets have been considerably more volatile of late, associated with developments in China, though other financial markets have been relatively stable. Long-term borrowing rates for most sovereigns and creditworthy private borrowers remain remarkably low. Overall, global financial conditions remain very accommodative.
In Australia, most of the available information suggests that moderate expansion in the economy continues. While growth has been somewhat below longer-term averages for some time, it has been accompanied with somewhat stronger growth of employment and a steady rate of unemployment over the past year. Overall, the economy is likely to be operating with a degree of spare capacity for some time yet, with domestic inflationary pressures contained. Inflation is thus forecast to remain consistent with the target over the next one to two years, even with a lower exchange rate.
In such circumstances, monetary policy needs to be accommodative. Low interest rates are acting to support borrowing and spending. Credit is recording moderate growth overall, with growth in lending to the housing market broadly steady over recent months. Dwelling prices continue to rise strongly in Sydney, though trends have been more varied in a number of other cities. The Bank is working with other regulators to assess and contain risks that may arise from the housing market. In other asset markets, prices for commercial property have been supported by lower long-term interest rates, while equity prices have moved lower and been more volatile recently, in parallel with developments in global markets. The Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices.
The Board today judged that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate at this meeting. Further information on economic and financial conditions to be received over the period ahead will inform the Board's ongoing assessment of the outlook and hence whether the current stance of policy will most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target."
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Australia holds rate, fresh data to determine next move

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Sri Lanka holds rate, remittances, tourism to support C/A

Sri Lanka's central bank left its key interest rates steady, saying regular inflow of remittances and earnings from tourism continue to support the current account despite a widening of the trade deficit in the first half of the year due to higher spending on imports relative to export earnings.
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka, which has maintained its rates since cutting them by 50 basis points in April, added that gross official reserves dropped to US$6.8 billion by end-July from $7.5 billion end-June but reserves should rise during the rest of the year due to higher inflows from an improved business outlook and investor confidence along with the realization of proceeds from the currency swap arrangement with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and a planned long-term loan of $500 million.
Sri Lanka's trade deficit narrowed to $689.2 million in June from $702.9 million in May as imports rose to $1.633 billion and exports rose to $944.1 million.
Sri Lanka's rupee has been depreciating against the rising U.S. dollar since January this year, with its exchange rate volatile in the last month.
On Friday Reuters reported that a state-run bank, through which the central bank normally directs the market, again allowed the exchange rate to depreciate by 0.11 percent to 134.30 to the dollar, in line with expectations that the central bank was allowing the rupee to depreciate in sync with other regional currencies.
Today the rupee eased further to trade at 134.5 to the dollar, down 2.5 percent this year.
Sri Lanka's headline inflation rate was negative in August for the second consecutive month at minus 0.2 percent, the same as in July, with the annual average rate at 1.0 percent in August compared with July's 1.3 percent.
The governor of the central bank, Arjuna Mahendran, has said he will step down if former President Mahinda Rajapaksa returns to power after parliamentary elections. Mahendran took over the central bank in January.


The Central Bank of Sri Lanka issued the following statement:



"Headline inflation remained in the negative territory for the second consecutive month, recording -0.2 per cent in August 2015 on a year-on-year basis. Headline inflation, on an annual average basis, moderated further to 1.0 per cent in August 2015 from 1.3 per cent in the previous month.

Meanwhile, core inflation, which reflects the underlying price movements in the economy, increased to 3.9 per cent in August 2015 on a year-on-year basis, from 3.5 per cent in the previous month. Going forward, the inflation outlook and expectations remain favourable for the remainder of the year, supported by improved domestic supply conditions and subdued global commodity prices.

Although some pressures in the short term interest rates were observed along with declining liquidity levels in the domestic money market, most market interest rates continue to remain at low levels. Supported by the prevailing low interest rates, the year-on-year growth of credit extended to the private sector by commercial banks accelerated to 19.4 per cent in June 2015 compared to 17.6 per cent in May 2015. Credit disbursed in absolute terms increased by around Rs. 55 billion during the month of June, while on a cumulative basis, credit to the private sector increased by around Rs. 205 billion during the first half of 2015 compared to a decline of Rs. 53 billion during the corresponding period in 2014. The expansion in private sector credit in the first half of the year was largely due to higher disbursements of credit to the Industry and Services sectors. Nevertheless, the rapid increase in the imports of consumer durables including motor vehicles driven by credit available at low interest rates, among other things, has raised some concerns.

The Central Bank is closely monitoring these developments in order to ensure that credit continues to be available to support productive economic activity while avoiding excessive expansion in credit in the period ahead. Meanwhile, driven by the expansion in private sector credit along with increased bank borrowings by the public sector, the year-on-year growth of broad money (M2b) remained at 15.3 per cent in June 2015 compared to 15.4 per cent in the previous month.

In the external sector, increased expenditure on imports relative to earnings from exports widened the trade deficit in the month of June 2015 as well as on a cumulative basis during the first half of the year. However, regular inflows of remittances and earnings from tourism continued to support the current account balance. In the meantime, net inflows to the financial account moderated further during this period, largely responding to expected developments in the advanced economies. In addition, reflecting the repayments made under the IMF's Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and the payments made to the Asian Clearing Union (ACU), as well as the intervention by the Central Bank to reduce excess volatility in the domestic foreign exchange market, gross official reserves, which stood at US dollars 7.5 billion at end June 2015, are estimated to have decreased to US dollars 6.8 billion by end July 2015.

However, official reserves are expected to increase during the remainder of the year with higher inflows arising from improved business outlook and investor confidence along with the realisation of the remaining proceeds of the currency swap arrangement with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) amounting of US dollars 1.1 billion and long term financial flows to the government, including the planned term loan of US dollars 500 million. Reflecting the domestic and global developments, the Sri Lankan rupee has depreciated by 2.3 per cent to Rs. 134.30 against the US dollar so far during the year.




Taking the above developments in the economy into consideration, the Monetary Board, at its meeting held on 31 August 2015, was of the view that the current monetary policy stance is appropriate. Accordingly, the Monetary Board decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank unchanged at 6.00 per cent and 7.50 per cent, respectively."

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Sri Lanka holds rate, remittances, tourism to support C/A

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Looking for Fractals Trailing SL EA

Gold/Silver Ratio Bounces Off Key Resistance at 80

Below is a monthly chart of the gold/silver ratio. We see that since 2003, the market has tested the 80 number four distinct times (the red boxes in the chart). In each test, the market was able to create a spike above 80, but was pushed down and sent lower. Is this thus a great time to sell the gold/silver ratio -- to buy silver and sell gold?

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I certainly think the technicals favor that. And if we zoom down to the weekly chart, we see that the ratio has broken out of the steep upwards channel it was in from July 2014 to January of 2015, and has been rangebound since then. This suggests a potential distribution after a rally, which could lead to a sell off and a decline in the ratio.

My one cause for concern is the trendline going back to gold's highs -- and the ratio's lows -- in September of 2011. This trendline is still holding strong, and thus may be a sign that the gold/silver ratio is headed higher. Some traders may prefer to wait to sell the gold/silver ratio until this trendline is broken.

Gold/Silver Ratio Bounces Off Key Resistance at 80

Managing Gains and Losses in Options Strangles: Statistically Speaking, When Should You Sell?

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We believe, and our studies have shown, that when selling strangles it is better to take profits at 50% of the credit received and exit quickly (usually around 15 days) rather than to hold out until expiration (typically 30 days) and receive a larger profit. Some of our viewers question our numbers but those who watch this segment will not. Dr. Data provides the numbers tables charts and makes use of the five number summary method that he introduced to tastytraders in his segment on August 13th to explain things. He goes through the data to show the numbers of winners and losers and the average gains and losses. He points out the problem that our doubtful viewers have identified and how it seems that managing winners at 50% would lead to an overall losing strategy. Dr. Data then blows them out of the water and explains what they are not taking into account. The math may seem challenging at first glance but Dr. Data makes it easy. His explanation is convincing and clear. All the information you need or would want is provided. A very convincing stat is the average profit per day.

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This week in monetary policy: Sri Lanka, Bulgaria, Australia, Poland, Brazil, Albania, ECB and Sweden

This week (August 31 through September 5) central banks from eight countries or jurisdictions are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Sri Lanka, Bulgaria, Australia, Poland, Brazil, Albania, the euro area and Sweden.
Following table includes the name of the country, the date of the next policy decision, the current policy rate, the result of the last policy decision, the change in the policy rate year to date, the rate one year ago, and the country’s MSCI classification.

The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always accessed by clicking on This Week.



WEEK 36 AUG 31-SEP 5, 2015: COUNTRY DATE RATE LATEST YTD 1 YR AGO MSCI SRI LANKA 31-Aug 6.00% 0 -50 6.50% FM BULGARIA 31-Aug 0.01% -1 -1 0.04% FM AUSTRALIA 1-Sep 2.00% 0 -50 2.50% DM POLAND 2-Sep 1.50% 0 -50 2.50% EM BRAZIL 2-Sep 14.25% 50 250 11.00% EM ALBANIA 2-Sep 2.00% 0 -25 2.50% FM EURO AREA 3-Sep 0.05% 0 0 0.05% DM SWEDEN 3-Sep -0.35% -10 -35 0.25% DM











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This week in monetary policy: Sri Lanka, Bulgaria, Australia, Poland, Brazil, Albania, ECB and Sweden

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Central Bank News Link List - Aug 30, 2015: Fed, ECB, BOE officials all say they see inflation rising

Here's today's Central Bank News' link list,click throughif you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.

• Fed, ECB, BOE officials all say they see inflation rising (Bloomberg)
• Jackson Hole roundup: No clear path for Fed in September (MarketWatch)
• El-Erian says jobs report could be key to Fed’s timing (Bloomberg)
• Turkish central bank hikes reserve ratio for short-term FX borrowing (Reuters)
• Australia c.bank unlikely to change interest rate stance (Sky News)
• ECB mulls policy response to market turmoil over China (AFP)
• India’s reserve bank isn’t done with rate cuts, says Rajan (PTI)
• RBI more likely to cut rates in September, GDP growth steady: survey (Reuters)
• Carstens reiterates Mexico may not have to wait for Fed hike (Bloomberg)
• Jordan says SNB aims to weaken overvalued franc over time (Reuters)
• Raising inflation target won’t help much now: researchers (Reuters)
• Yellen ally pours cold water on rule-based monetary policy (Reuters)
• Sri Lankan rupee falls after state-run bank raises dollar peg (Reuters)
• Rajan should get the Nobel prize in economics, say global investors (DNA)
• Hungary’s inflation guru says central bank loyal to CPI mandate (Bloomberg)
• Indonesia’s central bank sees August inflation at 7.08% y-o-y (Reuters)

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Central Bank News Link List - Aug 30, 2015: Fed, ECB, BOE officials all say they see inflation rising

Flag Pattern on Dollar Index -- Prices Going Higher?

Below is a daily chart of the dollar index. Note that we see price in a downward channel. Further note that price almost perfectly bounced off its most recent test of the bottom trendline of the downward channel this past week.

When we zoom out to the weekly chart, though, the channel appears more like the flag of a flag pattern. As our lesson on flag patterns suggests, this would suggest a continuation pattern is unfolding -- and that the market may be consolidating the sharp gains it made from July of 2014 to March of 2015 before heading even higher.

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That this past week was a pin bar candle that that shows the bulls stepping in to defend the trendline going back to mid-May (the dotted blue line in the chart above) is another sign I find interesting, and potentially suggestive of a further rally.

If the market breaks south of the bottom trendline of the channel we are currently in, or if we close below 90, I think the bull case may be off. Till then, though, I think traders willing to go off the weekly chart may find opportunities in buying dips, largely light of the flag pattern that is in place.

Flag Pattern on Dollar Index -- Prices Going Higher?

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I have been looking into options for placing funds that would otherwise be in a standard bank account. An index ETF might be good - after all rather few mutual funds actually beat the market. I have looked into Apex Futures and their automated systems, but those seem to have a hard time beating their respective markets too. I could seem as though the only way to beat the market without trading yourself would be to find some private/smaller trader willing to manage some extra funds.

Anyone else have some thoughts on this?

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Angola raises rate 25 bps on rising inflation and credit

Angola's central bank raised its benchmark Basic Interest Rate (BNA) by another 25 basis points to 10.50 percent, its fourth rate hike this year, citing rising inflation, growing credit and a depreciation of the kwanza.
The National Bank of Angola (BNA), which has now raised its key rate by 150 basis points this year, also raised the rate on its standing lending facility lending to 12.0 percent from 11.0 percent while it maintained the rate on its liquidity absorption facility at zero percent.
Angola's inflation rate jumped to 10.41 percent in July from June's 9.6 percent while the exchange rate of the kwanza has been largely stable since late July. On June 5 the central bank devalued the kwanza by about 6 percent and the central bank has been taking steps to ease U.S. dollar shortage.
Today the kwanza was quoted at 125.6 to the dollar, down 18 percent since the start of 2015. The BNA said the average exchange rate of the kwanza in July was down 3.64 percent from the previous month at 125.776 per dollar.
During July commercial banks bought foreign currency worth US$ 1.760 billion in the foreign exchange market of which $1.551 billion was from the BNA.
Angola is Africa's second largest crude oil exporter so its export revenue has been hard hit by the decline in oil prices.
But credit to the economy still grew by a cumulative 8.39 percent through July, the BNA said.

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Angola raises rate 25 bps on rising inflation and credit

Central Bank News Link List - Aug 28, 2015: Fed hawks acknowledge market turmoil may delay rate hike

Here's today's Central Bank News' link list,click throughif you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.

• Fed hawks acknowledge market turmoil may delay rate hike (Reuters)
• China’s cenbank likely to ease monetary policy again by end-Dec: Reuters poll
• Market turmoil prompts new speculation on the Fed’s timetable (NYT)
• U.S. housing market seen string enough to handle Fed rate hikes: Reuters poll
• Jackson Hole: US inflation more insulated from FX shocks (MNI)
• Overseas bankers, officials urge Fed not to waver on interest-rate rise (WSJ)
• Brace for QT, quantitative tightening, as China leads FX reserves purge (Reuters)
• Catch-22 for Zhou as yuan support means quantitative tightening (Bloomberg)
• Jackson Hole cheat sheet: Inflation dynamics, fly fishing and the Fed (WSJ)
• A globe-spanning guest list at Jackson Hole (WSJ)
• BOJ should debate acting if yen rises: Abe adviser (MarketWatch)
• India government, RBI reach consensus on monetary policy: J Sinha (PTI)
• Bank of Canada will cut rates on Sept. 9, National Bank predicts (Bloomberg)
• Chile’s central bank eyed rate hike as inflation worries mount (Reuters)
• Baht sinks to 6-year low as Thai central bank eases outflow rules (Bloomberg)
• Denmark to resume bond sales after beating back speculators (Bloomberg)
• Rajan went against majority view of rate cut in August policy review (PTI)
• ECB’s Coeure says monetary policy alone won’t bring strong growth (WSJ)
• Turkish central bank sees little recovery in investment sentiment (Reuters)
• No need to change polici settings yet-Philippines’ Tetangco (press reader)
• Bank of Israel’s Sussman says interest rate can go negative (Bloomberg)
• Nigeria MPC members slam central bank’s policies on the naira (Bloomberg)
• Uganda central bank trims GDP growth forecast (Reuters)
• Peru to take steps to curb currency speculation-central bank (Reuters)
• Zambia’s central bank says current monetary stance appropriate (Reuters)
• Rwanda central bank says has dollars to fight franc volatility (Bloomberg)
• Insider or outsider? Ireland faces central bank dilemma (Bloomberg)
• BOT, Malaysian central bank ink agreement on currency cooperation (The Nation)
• New Zealand’s central bank changes rate decision schedule (WSJ)

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USD en recul avant le rapport sur l'inflation et le symposium de Jackson Hole

Les marchés progressent en Asie-Pacifique, grâce aux bons chiffres de la croissance américaines et à la baisse de la volatilité qui se traduisent par un regain d'intérêt pour les actifs à risque. Les Bourses de Chine continentale s'inscrivent en nette hausse. Le Shanghai Composite etle Shenzhen Composite s'adjugent ainsi 4.62% et 5.39% respectivement. Tokyo a été la place...

CHF 0.44 EUR 0.35 GBP 0.10 JPY 0.02

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USD en recul avant le rapport sur l'inflation et le symposium de Jackson Hole

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Fiji holds rate, sees inflation below 3.0% end-2015

Fiji's central bank maintained its Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 0.50 percent, saying the dual mandates of the bank remain intact with inflation expected to be below 3.0 percent at the end of the year due to low global commodity prices, especially for oil, and low inflation in trading partners.
The Reserve Bank of Fiji (RBF), which has held its rate steady since November 2011, added that its foreign reserves were "comfortable" at US$1.969.3 billion as of Aug. 25, sufficient for 4.9 months of imports, and compared with $1.999.8 billion as of July 31.
In a statement from Aug. 27, RBF Governor Barry Whiteside contrasted heightened uncertainty for global economic growth with strong demand in Fiji that is in line with projections for 4.3 percent economic growth for 2015.
"In particular, increased consumption and investment demand continue to be supported by favorable financial and labour market conditions," Whiteside said.
Fiji's inflation rate rose to 1.4 percent in July from 0.8 percent in June and in the RBF's review for July it said receipts for the first month of this year confirmed the current positive outlook for primary industries, such as timber and fish exports, while the output of gold, electricity and wood chip was higher in the year recorded to June.


The Reserve Bank of Fiji issued the following statement:



"The Reserve Bank of Fiji Board at its monthly meeting on 27 August agreed to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate at 0.5 percent.
The Governor and Chairman of the Board, Mr Barry Whiteside noted that “positive sectoral outcomes and strong demand conditions in the year to date are in line with the 4.3 percent economic growth projection for this year. In particular, increased consumption and investment demand continue to be supported by favourable financial and labour market conditions.”
Mr Whiteside stated that in contrast, global economic conditions remain fragile, particularly as the recent China currency devaluation heightened uncertainty for the international growth outlook, apart from pushing commodity prices further downwards.
Given the low global commodity prices, especially for oil and soft trading partner inflation expectations, the Governor highlighted that the 2015 year-end inflation is expected to be below 3.0 percent. Foreign reserves are currently (25 August) comfortable at $1,969.3 million, sufficient to cover 4.9 months of retained imports of goods and non-factor services. In short, the dual mandates of the Bank remain stable.
The Governor concluded that, “as a result, the Bank will continue to monitor the latest global and domestic developments and align monetary policy accordingly.”




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[text] The Great Unwind, China Begins Dumping Treasuries - Nathan McDonald | Sprott Money

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"On August 11th, China unexpectedly devalued the Yuan. This came as a shock to the markets, which saw the currency rapidly plummet by 4% and would have continued to do so if not for the extreme intervention of the Chinese Plunge Protection Team. Since that time, they have been actively and directly engaging in the Forex markets, where they have propped-up the Yuan and artificially maintained their fix with the US dollar. How did they do this you ask? By selling US treasuries. That's right, it is being reported, that in the past two weeks alone, China has sold over $106 billion worth of treasuries! But this isn't all, since the start of this year, China has sold an additional $107 billion worth of treasuries!"

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[text] The Great Unwind, China Begins Dumping Treasuries - Nathan McDonald | Sprott Money

[text] US Investors are Taking Money Out of Bond Funds and Stock Funds for the First Time Since 2008 - Bloomberg Business

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"Since July, American households -- which account for almost all mutual fund investors -- have pulled money both from mutual funds that invest in stocks and those that invest in bonds. It’s the first time since 2008 that both asset classes have recorded back-to-back monthly withdrawals, according to a report by Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse estimates $6.5 billion left equity funds in July as $8.4 billion was pulled from bond funds, citing weekly data from the Investment Company Institute as of Aug. 19. Those outflows were followed up in the first three weeks of August, when investors withdrew $1.6 billion from stocks and $8.1 billion from bonds, said economist Dana Saporta. “Anytime you see something that hasn’t happened since the last quarter of 2008, it’s worth noting,” Saporta said in a phone interview.*“It may be that this is an interesting oddity but if we continue to see this it could reflect a more broad-based nervousness on the part of household investors.”"

[text] US Investors are Taking Money Out of Bond Funds and Stock Funds for the First Time Since 2008 - Bloomberg Business

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Ukraine cuts rate 300 bps, to keep relatively tight stance

Ukraine's central bank lowered its benchmark discount rate by 300 basis points to 27.00 percent in light of easing risks to inflation but cautioned that its policy stance "will remain relatively tight to support the disinflation trend and shield the Ukrainian economy from external shocks currently experienced by global commodity and financial markets."
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), which had maintained rates since its last rate hike in March, added that a tight policy stance over the last six months had "helped firmly anchor inflation and devaluation expectations and contributed to the stabilization of the FX market, thus putting inflation firmly on a downward path."
From April last year though March the NBU raised its rate by a total of 23.50 percentage points, including16.00 percentage points this year alone.
The rate cut comes on the same day that Ukraine and about half of its main creditors agreed on a plan to restructure $18 billion of foreign debt that will include a write-off of 20 percent. Press reports said Russia, which was not in the negotiating committee, would continue to demand full repayment of a $3 billion eurobond due in December.
The NBU, which earlier this month held out the promise of lower rates by the end of this year, said it expects the disinflation trend to continue due to a stable foreign exchange market, the fading of major price increases in housing and utilities, and a slow recovery of consumer demand. In addition, a high yield of grain, vegetables and fruit should keep down food prices.
Ukraine' inflation rate eased to 55.3 percent in July from 57.5 percent in June and a 2015-high of 60.9 percent in April.
Ukraine's hryvnia plunged by almost 50 percent against the U.S. dollar in 2014 following the outbreak of armed conflict in Eastern Ukraine and the occupation of the Crimean peninsula by pro-Russian forces.
But a cease-fire agreement in late February, rate hikes by the central bank and administrative measures have helped stabilize the hryvnia, which was trading at 21.1 to the U.S. dollar today, up from a low of 33.7 in late February but still down 25 percent this year.
On July 31 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) disbursed another $1.7 billion of its 4-year $17.5 billion facility to Ukraine, saying its economy remains fragile but encouraging signs were emerging as the exchange rate had stabilized and retail banking deposits had risen.
The IMF added that Ukraine should maintain "an appropriately tight monetary policy" and build up foreign exchange reserves but the policy can be "carefully eased" as disinflation takes root.




The National Bank of Ukraine issued the following statement:

"The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine has adopted a decision to reduce the discount rate from 30% to 27%, effective from August 28, 2015.


The tight monetary policy pursued by the National Bank of Ukraine in the past six months helped firmly anchor inflation and devaluation expectations and contributed to the stabilization of the FX market, thus putting inflation firmly on a downward path. The annual Consumer Price Index has been on a downward path for the third month in a row, whereas in July Ukraine recorded deflation in month-on-month terms.


The improvement of the situation in the FX market and stabilization of inflation expectations have encouraged the inflow of deposits to the banking system.


The National Bank of Ukraine expects the disinflation trend to persist in the period ahead due to the maintenance of relative stability in the FX market, a fading wave of massive price increases in housing and utilities and a slow recovery of consumer demand. An additional factor behind the disinflation trend will be a high yield of grain, vegetables and fruit, which will contribute to the subdued food price dynamics.


Given lower inflationary risks, the Board of the National Bank of Ukraine deems it appropriate to embark on easing the monetary policy consistent with the projected decline in the annual inflation rate. However, despite the reduction in the discount rate from its current high level, the monetary policy will remain relatively tight to support the disinflation trend and shield the Ukrainian economy from external shocks currently experienced by global commodity and financial markets."


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Ukraine cuts rate 300 bps, to keep relatively tight stance

Why Stocks Could Fall 50% if the Fed Makes the Wrong Move (Justin Spittler)

Originally Published by Casey Research

One of the most brilliant investors in the world just made a stunning call…

Ray Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund. Dalio manages nearly $170 billion in assets. He has one of the best investing track records in the business. When he speaks, we listen.

Dalio has been saying for a long time that governments and businesses around the world have borrowed far too much money. He thinks their high levels of debt have created an extremely fragile and dangerous situation.

The stats back up Dalio’s view. In the United States, government debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) is 102%...its highest level since World War II.

Countries around the world are in a similar position. Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio is at 226% and climbing. In Italy, government debt/GDP jumped from 100% in 2007 to 132% in 2014.

Dalio explained how these extreme debt levels are one reason for the recent market volatility we’ve been telling you about…

These long-term debt cycle forces are clearly having big effects on China, oil producers, and emerging countries which are overly indebted in dollars...

• In an article published yesterday, Dalio said the Fed should start another round of quantitative easing…

Quantitative easing (QE) is when a central bank buys bonds or other assets to lower interest rates and boost asset prices. It’s mostly just another name for money printing.

The Fed started QE in a desperate attempt to stave off disaster during the 2007-2008 financial crisis. It launched the first round in November 2008…a second round in November 2010…and a third round in September 2012. It stopped its last round of QE last October.

The first three rounds of QE fueled a big bull market in US stocks. The S&P 500 has gained 113% since the Fed started QE in 2008.

Dalio thinks the Fed should bring QE back. It’s a bold call, and one that most economists disagree with. Most economists expect the Fed to raise rates soon. Raising rates would tighten monetary conditions…essentially the opposite of QE.

• Dalio is worried the Fed won’t get it right…

Dalio thinks the Fed will raise rates, even if it’s just to “save face.” He pointed out that the Fed has threatened to raise rates so many times that not raising rates would hurt its credibility.

Dalio’s big concern is that the world is too indebted to handle a rate hike. He thinks it could cause a financial disaster like a stock market crash, or worse.

In a letter to clients earlier this year, Dalio made a comparison to 1937, when the world was in a similar situation of having way too much debt. He explained that the Fed made a huge mistake by raising rates, and it caused the stock market to plummet 50%.

The danger is that something similar could happen if the Fed raises rates today.

• We asked Dan Steinhart, executive editor of Casey Research, for his take…

Here’s his response…

I don’t know what the Fed’s going to do. That’s a guessing game. What’s important is Dalio’s point that we’re in an extremely fragile situation. The world has too much debt, and the Fed’s margin for error is tiny. If it takes a wrong step and stocks plummet 50%, it could cause a bigger financial crisis than in 2008.

So the real question is, do you trust the US government and the Fed to manage this dangerous situation?

I don’t. This is the same Fed that blew two huge bubbles in the last twenty years. First the 1999 tech bubble…then the even bigger housing bubble, which almost took down the whole financial system when it popped in 2007.

And keep in mind – this is all a gigantic experiment. The Fed is using tools, like QE, that it had never used before the financial crisis. No one in the Fed, the US government, or anywhere else knows how this is going to work out.

Who knows…maybe the Fed will surprise us and successfully guide the economy through this dangerous period. But that’s not an outcome I’d bet my savings on.

Dan went on to explain two things you can do to prepare for another financial crisis…

One, own physical gold. Unlike stocks, bonds, or cash, it’s the only financial asset that has value no matter what happens to the financial system.

Two, put some of your wealth outside the “blast radius” of a financial crisis. We wrote a new book with all of our best advice on how to do this. And we’ll send it to you today for practically nothing…we just ask you to pay $4.95 to cover our processing costs. Click here to claim your copy.

The article Why Stocks Could Fall 50% if the Fed Makes the Wrong Move was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

View the Casey Research Guide to Crisis Investing on InformedTrades

Why Stocks Could Fall 50% if the Fed Makes the Wrong Move (Justin Spittler)

EURUSD Forms Reversal Candlestick at Top of Price Channel

An interesting setup on EURUSD that I thought was worth noting here: on the weekly chart, we're seeing an inverted hammer at resistance within a price channel.

When we look at the daily chart, we an evening star, also near resistance and coming off the top of a price channel.

[bennathan[/bennathan]

Personally, I think this is an interesting counter-trend opportunity in the context of a rising price channel. A move down to the bottom of the channel near 1.10 seems a reasonable price target to me.

EURUSD Forms Reversal Candlestick at Top of Price Channel

Les marchés se reprennent dans le sillage de Wall Street

Wall Street a mis un terme à une série de six séances de repli et entraîné l'Asie dans son sillage. Le S&P 500 a gagné 3.90%, effaçant complètement les pertes des journées précédentes. Le Nasdaq s'est adjugé 4.24% et le Dow Jones 3.95%. Les marchés asiatiques ont bénéficié de l'optimisme américain sur fond d'apaisement des craintes. En Chine continentale, le Shanghai Composite reprend 4.37% et le...

CHF 0.27 EUR 0.20 GBP 0.16 JPY -0.20

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Moldova raises rate 200 bps on rising inflation pressure

Moldova's central bank raised its key policy rates by 200 basis points and the reserve ratio on bank's leu and non-convertible liabilities by 300 points to curb rising inflationary pressures from the the depreciation of the leu currency.
The National Bank of Moldova (NMB), which has now raised its benchmark base rate by 13 percentage points this year, said it expects inflation to accelerate in coming quarters due to the comparison with last year's low base as the leu's deprecation since the beginning of the year will push up the prices of imported goods and then by second-round effects.
The central bank said its policy decision was aimed at anchoring inflation expectations but inflation is still expected to temporarily exceed the upper limit of the target range of 6.50 percent to 3.50 percent, with a midpoint of 5.0 percent.
In addition to raising the base rate, the NBM raised its rate on overnight loans by 200 basis points to 22.50 percent and the overnight deposit rate to 16.5 percent from 14.5 percent.
To help sterilize excess liquidity accumulated in recent months, the central bank raised the required reserve ratio on leu and non-convertible deposits by 300 points to 35.0 percent while the ratio on freely convertible currencies was maintained at 14.0 percent.
Moldova's leu currency has been depreciating since July last year and went into near-freefall in January this year. Since February it has continued to slowly decline though it rose in response to the central bank's latest rate hike.
The currency of Moldova - a former Soviet state located between Romania and Ukraine - was trading at 19 to the U.S. dollar today, up from 19.2 prior to news of the bank's decision but still down 18 percent this year.
Moldova's inflation rate rose to 8.6 percent in July from 8.3 percent in June.


The National Bank of Moldova issued the following statement:


"Within the meeting of the 26 August 2015, the Executive Committee of the National Bank of Moldova adopted the following decision by unanimous vote:

1. to increase the base rate applied on main short-term monetary policy operations by 2.0 percentage points, from the level of 17.5 to 19.5 percent annually;
2. To increase the interest rates:
- on overnight loans by 2.0 percentage points, from 20.5 to 22.5 percent annually;
- on overnight deposits by 2.0 percentage points, from 14.5 to 16.5 percent annually;
3. To increase the required reserves ratio from financial means in MDL and non-convertible currency by 3.0 percentage points and set at the level of 35.0 percent of the base starting with the maintenance period of 08 October 2015 - 07 November 2015 of the required reserves in MDL;
4. To maintain the required reserves ratio from financial means attracted in freely convertible currency at the level of 14.0 percent of the base.
5. The rates referred to in items 1 and 2 shall entry into force on 02 September 2015.
The annual inflation rate reached in July 2015 the level of 8.6 percent or by 0.3 percentage points more compared to the previous month, mainly due to higher contribution from core inflation and food prices by 4.0 and 3.0 percentage points, respectively.
In July 2015, the annual rate of core inflation accounted for 11.8 percent, by 0.7 percentage points more compared to June 2015.
In the first semester, exports and imports decreased by 15.3 and 22.1 percent respectively, compared to the same period of the previous year, while the industrial output increased by 5.9 percent.
Transport of goods decreased by 7.7 percent during January - July 2015, compared to the same period of the previous year.
In terms of consumer demand, the annual average real wage growth in the economy in June 2015 was 4.0 percent, by 0.3 percentage points higher that in June 2014. Money transfers to individuals through the banks of the Republic of Moldova fell by 30.1 percent in January-July 2015 and by 37.0 percent in July 2015 compared with the same period of 2014.
At the end of July 2015, the balance of loans granted to economy decreased by 6.7 percent compared to the end of July 2014, while the that of deposits increased by 2.7 percent.
In July 2015, the average interest rates applied by banks to loans and deposits in national currency recorded an upward trend. Thus, the average annual interest rate on the loan portfolio in national currency increased by 0.08 percentage points compared to the previous month, constituting 12.14 percent. The average interest rate for deposits in MDL increased by 0.46 percentage points compared to June, registering a level of 11.03 percent.
The monetary policy continues to be affected by the complexity of risk balance, with a prevalence of inflationary risks. Weak economic activity in the euro area countries and the recession of the Russian Federation - the main trading partners of the Republic of Moldova maintain the risk of lowering of foreign currency income of households and domestic exporters in short-term, through remittances and foreign trade channel. This may subsequently influence inflation and the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the region may cause additional inflationary pressures.
The depreciation of the national currency since the beginning of this year has increased the inflationary pressures, which will subsequently determine in the future periods, through the prices of imported goods and tariffs of regulated services and later by second-round effects, the IPC to leave temporarily the upper limit of the variation range of ± 1.5 percentage point from the inflation target of 5.0 percent. It is anticipated that inflation will accelerate in the coming quarters, including due to the low calculation base of the previous year.
Against this background, within the meeting held on 26 August 2015, the members of the Executive Committee of the NBM decided by unanimous vote to increase the policy rate by 2.0 percentage points from 17.5 to 19.5 percent annually.
In order to sterilize excess liquidity accumulated in recent months and improve the transmission mechanism of monetary policy decisions, the Executive Committee took the decision to increase the required reserves ratio attracted in MDL and non-convertible currency by 3.0 percentage points up to 35.0 percent of the value of the base for the maintenance period of required reserves in MDL: 08 October 2015 - 07 November 2015. At the same time, the required reserves ratio from financial means attracted in freely convertible currency was maintained at the current level 14.0 percent of the base.
The decisions of the Executive Committee of 26 August 2015 are aimed at anchoring inflation expectations in the context of restoring and maintaining the inflation rate close to the target of 5.0 percent over the medium-term, with a possible deviation of ± 1.5 percentage points.
In order to support the proper functioning of the interbank money market, the NBM will continue to manage firmly the liquidity excess through sterilization operations, according to the announced schedule.
National Bank will continue to offer banks liquidity, according to the schedule announced for 2015, through REPO operations with the term of 14 days, at a fixed rate equal to the base rate of the National Bank plus a margin of 0.25 points percentage.
NBM will further monitor and anticipate the domestic and international economic environment developments, including household consumption dynamics, remittances and changing foreign trade conditions, so that by the flexibility of operational framework specific for the inflation targeting strategy to ensure price stability in the medium term
The next meeting of the Executive Committee of the NBM on monetary policy will take place on 24 September 2015, according to the announced schedule."


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Moldova raises rate 200 bps on rising inflation pressure